This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
1.93
0.93
1.44
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.25
1.20
0.60
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (16)
2.25
0.81
2.50
1.25
2.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
7.1%
1-0
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
Austria Vienna goals ↓
Sturm Graz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.4%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.9%
13%
8.6%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.1%
5.9%
2.9%
1.0%
3
2.6%
3.7%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Austria Vienna goals (down), columns = Sturm Graz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sturm Graz
2.09
Red Bull Salzburg
2.09
Lask Linz
1.62
Austria Vienna
1.57
Rapid Vienna
1.41
Wolfsberger AC
1.39
TSV Hartberg
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt
1.22
FC BW Linz
1.00
SCR Altach
0.97
WSG Wattens
0.81
Austria Lustenau
0.66
Austria Vienna is 0.52 points worse than Sturm Graz in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Red Bull Salzburg
2.31
Sturm Graz
1.75
TSV Hartberg
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.47
Lask Linz
1.34
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
Austria Klagenfurt
1.25
Austria Vienna
1.14
FC BW Linz
1.03
WSG Wattens
0.91
SCR Altach
0.84
Austria Lustenau
0.69
Austria Vienna is 0.61 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
0.72
Red Bull Salzburg
0.91
Austria Vienna
1.03
Lask Linz
1.03
Rapid Vienna
1.09
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
SCR Altach
1.25
FC BW Linz
1.50
Austria Klagenfurt
1.56
TSV Hartberg
1.62
WSG Wattens
1.72
Austria Lustenau
1.81
Austria Vienna is 0.31 goals worse than Sturm Graz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
59%
Austria Vienna
56%
Lask Linz
55%
Rapid Vienna
54%
TSV Hartberg
53%
Sturm Graz
50%
Wolfsberger AC
50%
WSG Wattens
48%
Austria Klagenfurt
48%
FC BW Linz
44%
SCR Altach
44%
Austria Lustenau
40%
Austria Vienna is 6.2 percentage points better than Sturm Graz in terms of average possession (56% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Austria Vienna
For 5.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
For 5.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Austria Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
10.0
10.4
9.6
4.3
4.2
4.3
25.7
24.8
26.8
vs Stronger (12)
9.3
9.0
9.6
2.9
4.0
1.8
22.3
21.4
23.2
vs Similar (19)
11.3
12.2
10.3
4.7
4.0
5.4
27.2
26.8
27.6
vs Weaker (12)
8.6
8.7
8.5
4.9
4.7
5.2
26.3
24.2
28.5
% over line
56%
62%
50%
58%
68%
48%
78%
71%
85%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
42%
32%
52%
22%
29%
15%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (40)
9.8
10.6
8.9
5.0
4.8
5.3
25.6
25.6
25.6
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
7.0
11.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Similar (18)
9.2
9.1
9.2
6.5
6.4
6.6
26.6
26.9
26.3
vs Weaker (20)
10.4
12.3
8.5
3.9
3.3
4.4
25.4
25.1
25.8
% over line
48%
50%
45%
70%
60%
80%
78%
75%
80%
% under line
52%
50%
55%
30%
40%
20%
22%
25%
20%
This opponent (Austria Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC BW Linz
11.1
Wolfsberger AC
11.0
Rapid Vienna
10.7
Red Bull Salzburg
10.2
Lask Linz
10.2
Austria Vienna
10.0
Sturm Graz
9.8
Austria Lustenau
9.7
SCR Altach
9.6
WSG Wattens
9.6
Austria Klagenfurt
9.1
TSV Hartberg
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sturm Graz
5.0
Rapid Vienna
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.8
FC BW Linz
4.7
TSV Hartberg
4.6
SCR Altach
4.5
Austria Vienna
4.5
Lask Linz
4.4
Austria Klagenfurt
4.3
Red Bull Salzburg
4.3
WSG Wattens
4.2
Wolfsberger AC
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
28.0
FC BW Linz
27.3
Austria Lustenau
26.2
Austria Vienna
25.7
Sturm Graz
25.6
Lask Linz
25.6
SCR Altach
25.6
Austria Klagenfurt
25.1
Wolfsberger AC
25.0
TSV Hartberg
24.2
Red Bull Salzburg
24.0
WSG Wattens
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.4%
Under 3.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.5%
Under 21.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Austria Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.44
0.44
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.20
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.54
0.57
0.14
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.93
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.42
0.80
0.20
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
1.12
0.88
0.75
0.12
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Austria Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Austria Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.19
0.75
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.44
0.40
1.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.92
1.14
0.57
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.50
2.25
0.75
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.00
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.83
0.40
0.40
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.31
1.38
0.38
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Vienna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Austria Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Austria Vienna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominik Fitz26%
Andreas Gruber26%
Fisnik Asllani21%
Alexander Schmidt14%
Muharem Husković13%
Romeo Vučić11%
James Holland8%
Frans Krätzig6%
Reinhold Ranftl6%
Matteo Meisl5%
Manuel Polster4%
Hakim Guenouche3%
Johannes Handl3%
Christian Früchtl0%
Marvin Potzmann0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Mirko Kos0%
Aleksandar Jukić0%
Manfred Fischer0%
Lucas Galvão0%
Marvin Martins0%
Matan Baltaxa0%
Matthias Braunöder0%
Ayi Silva Kangani0%
Moritz Wels0%
Sanel Saljic0%
Luca Pazourek0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matan Baltaxa43%
Lucas Galvão36%
Sanel Saljic33%
Frans Krätzig29%
Johannes Handl28%
Manfred Fischer28%
Moritz Wels27%
Reinhold Ranftl25%
Marvin Potzmann24%
Dominik Fitz24%
Muharem Husković23%
Aleksandar Jukić21%
James Holland20%
Ayi Silva Kangani20%
Marvin Martins17%
Hakim Guenouche14%
Alexander Schmidt14%
Andreas Gruber13%
Fisnik Asllani11%
Matteo Meisl9%
Christian Früchtl8%
Romeo Vučić5%
Matthias Braunöder5%
Manuel Polster4%
Tin Plavotić0%
Mirko Kos0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ayi Silva Kangani20%
Dominik Fitz18%
Frans Krätzig18%
Manuel Polster16%
Aleksandar Jukić11%
Andreas Gruber11%
Reinhold Ranftl8%
Manfred Fischer6%
Fisnik Asllani5%
Romeo Vučić5%
Matthias Braunöder5%
Marvin Potzmann4%
Lucas Galvão4%
Hakim Guenouche3%
Johannes Handl3%
Christian Früchtl0%
Alexander Schmidt0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Mirko Kos0%
Matteo Meisl0%
James Holland0%
Marvin Martins0%
Matan Baltaxa0%
Muharem Husković0%
Moritz Wels0%
Sanel Saljic0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andreas Gruber21%
Fisnik Asllani21%
Dominik Fitz21%
Manfred Fischer11%
Muharem Husković10%
Moritz Wels9%
Reinhold Ranftl8%
Aleksandar Jukić5%
Matthias Braunöder5%
James Holland4%
Hakim Guenouche3%
Christian Früchtl0%
Marvin Potzmann0%
Johannes Handl0%
Alexander Schmidt0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Mirko Kos0%
Matteo Meisl0%
Lucas Galvão0%
Marvin Martins0%
Matan Baltaxa0%
Manuel Polster0%
Ayi Silva Kangani0%
Romeo Vučić0%
Frans Krätzig0%
Sanel Saljic0%
Luca Pazourek0%
Sturm Graz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mika Biereth37%
Otar Kiteishvili25%
Alexander Prass17%
Manprit Sarkaria16%
Tomi Horvat15%
William Bøving15%
Szymon Włodarczyk14%
Jon Gorenc Stanković12%
Seedy Jatta10%
Amady Camara10%
Gregory Wüthrich8%
Mohammed Fuseini7%
Dimitri Lavalėe7%
David Affengruber5%
Jusuf Gazibegović5%
David Schnegg0%
Alexandar Borković0%
Stefan Hierländer0%
Bryan Silva Teixeira0%
Kjell Scherpen0%
Amadou Dante0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Max Johnston0%
Javier Serrano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitri Lavalėe30%
Otar Kiteishvili28%
Javier Serrano23%
Stefan Hierländer21%
David Schnegg18%
Jon Gorenc Stanković18%
Alexander Prass17%
Gregory Wüthrich16%
Bryan Silva Teixeira13%
David Affengruber12%
Jusuf Gazibegović12%
Mika Biereth11%
Manprit Sarkaria8%
Max Johnston7%
Amadou Dante6%
Seedy Jatta5%
Kjell Scherpen4%
William Bøving2%
Alexandar Borković0%
Tomi Horvat0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Mohammed Fuseini0%
Amady Camara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Otar Kiteishvili17%
Tomi Horvat15%
William Bøving12%
Alexander Prass12%
Jusuf Gazibegović12%
David Schnegg12%
Mika Biereth11%
Manprit Sarkaria8%
Bryan Silva Teixeira7%
Amadou Dante6%
David Affengruber5%
Max Johnston4%
Szymon Włodarczyk3%
Gregory Wüthrich3%
Alexandar Borković0%
Stefan Hierländer0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Kjell Scherpen0%
Dimitri Lavalėe0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Javier Serrano0%
Mohammed Fuseini0%
Amady Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Otar Kiteishvili19%
Mika Biereth16%
Alexander Prass12%
Manprit Sarkaria12%
Tomi Horvat10%
Szymon Włodarczyk8%
David Affengruber5%
Seedy Jatta5%
Amady Camara5%
Jon Gorenc Stanković2%
William Bøving2%
Jusuf Gazibegović2%
Gregory Wüthrich0%
David Schnegg0%
Alexandar Borković0%
Stefan Hierländer0%
Bryan Silva Teixeira0%
Kjell Scherpen0%
Dimitri Lavalėe0%
Amadou Dante0%
Vítězslav Jaroš0%
Niklas Geyrhofer0%
Max Johnston0%
Javier Serrano0%
Mohammed Fuseini0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
SA (23)
€9m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
Austria Vienna's squad is €29m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€23m vs €52m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
Austria Vienna's attack is €16m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€9m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Austria Vienna's midfield is €7m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€7m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
FBL (8)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
Austria Vienna's defence is €6m less valuable than Sturm Graz's (€7m vs €13m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →