Auxerre’s home form, 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly matched opponents, sits just above Nice’s away record of 0.64 scored and 1.5 conceded. The match is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win at 40% versus 29% for a draw and 31% for an away victory. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% chance. The average total of 2 goals carries a 27% probability.
The model’s selections lean heavily toward low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 6% edge) and Under 5.5 (96.0% with a 2% edge). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a tight, low-scoring encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Auxerre win
38.7%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.46
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.53
Pinnacle
2.49
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.47
Draw
29.3%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.24
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.33
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Betano
3.25
Nice win
32.0%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.92
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.06
Marathonbet
3.02
Pinnacle
2.97
Betano
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Auxerre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.07
1.20
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.82
0.80
1.60
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.26
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.43
1.50
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.40
1.27
1.27
0.64
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
@ 1.35+3.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
@ 3.13-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.11+1.0%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.74-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
@ 3.65-1.0%
Under 3.5
75.3%
@ 1.26+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
52.4%
@ 1.81+0.9%
No
47.5%
@ 1.92-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
No
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.83+6.4%
1-0
9.4%@ 7.34+3.4%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.24+3.9%
2-1
8.5%@ 9.10+3.6%
0-1
8.3%@ 7.84+2.6%
1-2
7.6%@ 9.91+3.1%
2-0
7.1%@ 10.97+3.1%
0-2
5.7%@ 12.84+2.2%
Auxerre goals ↓
Nice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.3%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.4%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.1%
8.5%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.2%
3.8%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Auxerre goals (down), columns = Nice goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Auxerre and Nice are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Auxerre is 0.14 goals worse than Nice in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Auxerre is 0.40 goals better than Nice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Auxerre is 2.8 percentage points worse than Nice in terms of average possession (44% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Auxerre
For 4.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nice
For 5.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Auxerre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
4.6
5.4
3.8
25.8
25.4
26.2
vs Stronger (20)
9.8
10.1
9.5
5.5
6.9
4.3
25.4
24.2
26.5
vs Similar (30)
10.1
10.2
9.9
4.0
4.5
3.5
26.1
26.1
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
44%
50%
68%
80%
56%
76%
68%
83%
% under line
53%
56%
50%
32%
20%
44%
24%
32%
17%
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.4
3.9
3.6
4.1
23.3
22.9
23.6
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
7.5
8.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.0
22.5
25.0
vs Similar (39)
10.9
10.8
10.9
3.9
3.8
4.1
23.0
22.6
23.4
vs Weaker (6)
11.0
13.3
7.5
3.3
2.8
4.5
24.6
25.3
23.5
% over line
61%
65%
58%
56%
46%
65%
55%
48%
62%
% under line
39%
35%
42%
44%
54%
35%
45%
52%
38%
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.1%
@ 1.81+7.2%
Under 9.5
41.9%
@ 1.88-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.81
Under
Unibet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
61.9%
Under 21.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Auxerre or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.41
Edge
+3.3%
39%
29%
32%
covers Auxerre + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Auxerre or Nice
70.5%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
-0.4%
39%
29%
32%
covers Auxerre + Nice
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Draw or Nice
58.8%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.54
Edge
-2.9%
39%
29%
32%
covers Draw + Nice
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Auxerre over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
@ 1.29+2.5%
Under
25.6%
@ 3.31-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.49
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Auxerre over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
@ 2.46+1.4%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.51-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Unibet
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Auxerre over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
@ 5.73-0.5%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.11+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
Unibet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Auxerre over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
@ 13.38-2.2%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Nice over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
@ 1.35-1.4%
Under
32.8%
@ 2.95+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Betano
2.90
Nice over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
@ 2.76-3.2%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.41+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Nice over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
@ 6.81-3.5%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.08+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.85
Marathonbet
6.85
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Nice over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 16.12-3.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Auxerre, so a minus line means Auxerre give that many goals of a start and Nice receive them. At -1, Auxerre must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Auxerre win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Auxerre)
Auxerre -2
7.3%
@ 10.48-1.2%
Draw -2
12.6%
@ 6.35-1.4%
Nice +2
80.2%
@ 1.14+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.40
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Auxerre)
Auxerre -1
19.8%
@ 4.85+1.4%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.94-1.4%
Nice +1
58.8%
@ 1.52-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Handicap +1 (Auxerre)
Auxerre +1
70.7%
@ 1.40+6.4%
Draw +1
17.2%
@ 4.33-3.5%
Nice -1
12.1%
@ 5.98-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
Handicap +2 (Auxerre)
Auxerre +2
87.9%
@ 1.09+5.3%
Draw +2
8.4%
@ 8.00-2.9%
Nice -2
3.7%
@ 14.88-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
12.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Auxerre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.45
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.36
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.20
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.43+1.1%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 2.72-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Under
William Hil
2.90
Pinnacle
2.83
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.67
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.7%
@ 3.00-2.6%
Under 1.5
71.3%
@ 1.36+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Pinnacle
3.07
Bet365
3.00
Under
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 7.65-2.8%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.07+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Auxerre over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.5%
@ 2.10-3.9%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.67+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Auxerre over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
@ 6.67-4.8%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Auxerre over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 12.00-5.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Nice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.9%
@ 2.24-1.5%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.58+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Under
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Nice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
@ 7.30-3.5%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Nice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 13.00-5.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Auxerre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.36
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.63
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
1.07
0.79
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.60
1.00
0.55
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.27+0.3%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.53-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Under
Unibet
3.65
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.27-2.1%
Under 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.61+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.33
1xBet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 5.05-4.2%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.15+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Auxerre over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.1%
@ 1.77-3.1%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.94+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Auxerre over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.1%
@ 4.84-5.1%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.15+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Auxerre over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 10.00-6.3%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Nice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.6%
@ 1.89-2.6%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.82+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Nice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.7%
@ 5.51-3.1%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.11+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Nice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 11.00-6.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+2.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+4.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.07
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+2.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+3.5%
Under 4.5
89.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.3%
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
+5.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-
+3.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-
+5.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+0.5%
Away +2 handicap
80.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+2.6%
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+1.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+2.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+0.3%
Over 1.5
73.0%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.0%
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.36
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
+2.6%
Home or Draw
70.7%
1.41
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
+3.3%
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
1.40
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
+6.4%
Home or Away
70.5%
1.33
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
-0.4%
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
1.49
Unibet
1.49
-
-
-
-
+8.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Auxerre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lassine Sinayoko31%
Bryan Okoh15%
Danny Namaso10%
Francisco Sierralta9%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Kévin Danois9%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Assane Dioussé6%
Marvin Senaya4%
Josué Casimir3%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Clement Akpa0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Danny Namaso30%
Gideon Mensah26%
Lassine Sinayoko25%
Elisha Owusu24%
Rudy Matondo24%
Marvin Senaya23%
Assane Dioussé19%
Francisco Sierralta18%
Josué Casimir16%
Bryan Okoh15%
Sinaly Diomandé12%
Kévin Danois12%
Clement Akpa12%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Lamine Sy8%
Lasso Coulibaly6%
Fredrik Oppegård4%
Donovan Léon3%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sékou Mara0%
Théo De Percin0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ibrahim Osman13%
Lassine Sinayoko12%
Danny Namaso10%
Romain Faivre10%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Naouirou Ahamada7%
Gideon Mensah6%
Kévin Danois3%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Oussama El Azzouzi0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lassine Sinayoko41%
Danny Namaso13%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Sékou Mara7%
Ibrahim Osman7%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Romain Faivre0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sinaly Diomandé0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Kévin Danois0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Nice · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elye Wahi37%
Zoumana Diallo25%
Terem Moffi20%
Sofiane Diop20%
Kaïl Boudache16%
Djibril Coulibaly14%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi6%
Antoine Mendy5%
Tom Louchet5%
Melvin Bard5%
Jonathan Clauss4%
Tiago Gouveia4%
Isak Jansson3%
Hicham Boudaoui3%
Charles Vanhoutte3%
Kojo Peprah Oppong2%
Morgan Sanson2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Elye Wahi32%
Charles Vanhoutte26%
Antoine Mendy22%
Hicham Boudaoui22%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga20%
Abdulay Juma Bah20%
Tiago Gouveia16%
Salis Abdul Samed14%
Kojo Peprah Oppong14%
Melvin Bard14%
Morgan Sanson13%
Sofiane Diop11%
Dante11%
Kaïl Boudache11%
Isak Jansson10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Bernard Nguene8%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Maxime Dupé7%
Tom Louchet7%
Jonathan Clauss7%
Yehvann Diouf3%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Terem Moffi0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Everton Pereira0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jonathan Clauss24%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Elye Wahi11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Charles Vanhoutte8%
Tanguy Ndombélé8%
Sofiane Diop7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Dante5%
Tom Louchet5%
Morgan Sanson4%
Salis Abdul Samed4%
Melvin Bard2%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Ali Abdi0%
Terem Moffi0%
Isak Jansson0%
Tiago Gouveia0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Antoine Mendy0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elye Wahi21%
Sofiane Diop13%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Tiago Gouveia8%
Terem Moffi7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Ali Abdi6%
Jérémie Boga5%
Isak Jansson3%
Antoine Mendy2%
Tom Louchet2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Morgan Sanson0%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Jonathan Clauss0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Melvin Bard0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Auxerre's squad is €69m less valuable than Nice's (€84m vs €152m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Auxerre's attack is €39m less valuable than Nice's (€23m vs €62m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Auxerre's midfield is €3m less valuable than Nice's (€28m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Auxerre's defence is €27m less valuable than Nice's (€33m vs €60m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse