This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.40
0.87
1.07
0.67
1.73
vs Stronger (17)
0.71
1.71
0.71
1.14
0.70
2.10
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
11.4%
0-0
10.7%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
4.9%
Aves goals ↓
Belenenses goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.3%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.7%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.8%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aves goals (down), columns = Belenenses goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Aves is 0.09 points worse than Belenenses in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Aves is 0.09 goals better than Belenenses in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Aves is 0.15 goals worse than Belenenses in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
A
Aves
For 3.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 17.2 · Total 32.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Belenenses
For 6.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.5 · Against 18.2 · Total 37.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (4)
7.5
10.5
4.5
2.8
1.5
4.0
32.5
27.5
37.5
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.5
-
1.5
1.5
-
27.5
27.5
-
vs Similar (2)
4.5
-
4.5
4.0
-
4.0
37.5
-
37.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
50%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
50%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
12.5
10.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
37.8
39.0
36.5
vs Stronger (25)
10.0
-
10.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
36.5
-
36.5
vs Similar (24)
12.5
12.5
-
0.4
0.9
0.0
39.0
39.0
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
6%
8%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
0%
50%
94%
92%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chaves
13.8
Moreirense
12.8
Guimaraes
12.2
FC Porto
12.2
Feirense
12.2
Belenenses
11.2
Estoril
10.8
SC Braga
10.8
Portimonense
10.4
Benfica
10.2
Setubal
10.2
Sporting CP
10.0
Tondela
10.0
Maritimo
9.6
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
Rio Ave
9.4
Boavista
9.0
Aves
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Estoril
5.8
Guimaraes
5.6
SC Braga
5.2
Setubal
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Chaves
4.6
Sporting CP
4.4
Feirense
4.2
FC Porto
4.0
Benfica
4.0
Moreirense
4.0
Rio Ave
4.0
Belenenses
3.8
Maritimo
3.4
Portimonense
3.4
Boavista
3.0
Aves
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Belenenses
37.8
Sporting CP
36.0
Rio Ave
35.8
Feirense
35.6
Aves
32.5
Benfica
32.0
Maritimo
31.6
Setubal
30.4
Chaves
29.8
Tondela
29.8
FC Porto
28.8
Estoril
28.4
Portimonense
27.6
Pacos Ferreira
27.2
Guimaraes
27.0
Moreirense
26.8
Boavista
25.2
SC Braga
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.2%
Under 9.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.1%
Under 21.5
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.60
0.47
0.47
0.07
0.73
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
0.82
0.57
0.71
0.00
0.90
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.31
0.38
0.25
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belenenses
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.47
0.88
0.14
0.43
0.70
1.20
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.62
0.75
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →