This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.70
2.20
0.47
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.25
1.00
2.50
1.50
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
2.12
0.65
2.15
0.31
2.08
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.46-9.6%
Under 2.5
45.0%
@ 2.66+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.7%
0-1
11.0%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
9.0%
1-3
6.8%
0-0 ✓
6.5%
0-4
4.8%
Aves goals ↓
FC Porto goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
11%
13%
9.0%
4.8%
1
3.3%
9.9%
9.6%
6.8%
3.6%
2
1.6%
3.4%
3.6%
2.6%
1.4%
3
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aves goals (down), columns = FC Porto goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
1.76
Sporting CP
1.76
Rio Ave
1.62
Famalicao
1.59
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.26
Santa Clara
1.26
Moreirense
1.26
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Belenenses
1.03
Setubal
1.00
Portimonense
0.97
Aves
0.50
Aves is 1.91 points worse than FC Porto in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.09
SC Braga
1.79
Famalicao
1.56
Guimaraes
1.56
Sporting CP
1.44
Rio Ave
1.41
Moreirense
1.24
GIL Vicente
1.18
Santa Clara
1.06
Pacos Ferreira
1.06
Maritimo
1.00
Tondela
0.88
Portimonense
0.88
Boavista
0.82
Belenenses
0.79
Setubal
0.79
Aves
0.71
Aves is 1.47 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Benfica
0.76
Sporting CP
1.00
Rio Ave
1.06
Guimaraes
1.12
Boavista
1.15
SC Braga
1.18
Santa Clara
1.21
Maritimo
1.24
Setubal
1.26
Tondela
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Belenenses
1.59
Aves
2.00
Aves is 1.35 goals worse than FC Porto in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
A
Aves
For 4.6 · Against 7.4 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 18.8 · Total 32.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto
For 6.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 16.1 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.8
12.1
5.2
5.5
4.9
32.5
33.3
31.7
vs Stronger (34)
12.4
12.2
12.6
5.1
5.6
4.6
31.6
33.8
29.7
vs Similar (16)
11.1
11.2
10.9
5.5
5.4
5.6
34.4
32.4
36.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
68%
72%
76%
76%
76%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
30%
32%
28%
24%
24%
24%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
31.5
29.8
33.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
9.8
11.0
8.7
9.0
9.7
8.3
33.2
31.0
35.3
vs Weaker (44)
9.3
9.0
9.5
4.6
4.7
4.6
31.2
29.6
32.7
% over line
36%
29%
42%
66%
62%
69%
94%
88%
100%
% under line
64%
71%
58%
34%
38%
31%
6%
12%
0%
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aves
12.0
Guimaraes
11.5
Pacos Ferreira
11.3
Boavista
11.1
Setubal
10.9
Sporting CP
10.7
Famalicao
10.5
Santa Clara
10.5
SC Braga
10.5
Tondela
10.5
Benfica
10.4
Moreirense
10.3
Maritimo
10.2
Rio Ave
10.2
Belenenses
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.5
Portimonense
9.4
FC Porto
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sporting CP
6.5
Famalicao
6.0
Setubal
6.0
Boavista
5.8
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Maritimo
5.6
SC Braga
5.5
Rio Ave
5.5
Tondela
5.3
Benfica
5.3
Aves
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Moreirense
5.1
Santa Clara
5.0
Portimonense
4.8
Guimaraes
4.7
Belenenses
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Boavista
34.6
GIL Vicente
34.1
Setubal
33.7
Pacos Ferreira
33.6
Rio Ave
33.2
Maritimo
33.0
Tondela
32.7
Aves
32.5
Moreirense
32.2
FC Porto
31.5
Guimaraes
31.4
Santa Clara
31.4
Famalicao
31.2
Portimonense
31.2
Sporting CP
31.1
Belenenses
30.9
SC Braga
30.6
Benfica
27.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.0%
Under 9.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.1%
Under 3.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.9%
Under 21.5
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.10
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.20
0.80
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.30
1.20
0.27
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.15
0.27
1.15
0.23
1.15
0.31
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.17
0.53
0.87
0.27
1.47
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
1.30
0.20
1.10
0.40
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
1.20
0.40
0.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.00
0.20
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.96
0.38
1.00
0.08
0.92
0.69
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Porto · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gabri Veiga75%
André Silva50%
Borja Sainz50%
Nehuén Pérez25%
William Gomes25%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
Hwang In-beom0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Pepê0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Alberto Costa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Victor Froholdt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hwang In-beom33%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
André Silva0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Pepê0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Borja Sainz0%
Gabri Veiga0%
Alberto Costa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Victor Froholdt0%
William Gomes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pepê50%
Gabri Veiga50%
Hwang In-beom33%
William Gomes25%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
André Silva0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Borja Sainz0%
Alberto Costa0%
Deniz Gül0%
Victor Froholdt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Borja Sainz50%
Deniz Gül33%
Pepê25%
Gabri Veiga25%
Victor Froholdt25%
Nehuén Pérez0%
Pablo Rosario0%
Diogo Costa0%
André Silva0%
Hwang In-beom0%
Jan Bednarek0%
Jakub Kiwior0%
Zaidu Sanusi0%
Alberto Costa0%
William Gomes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →