This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.27
1.47
1.33
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.17
1.33
2.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.19
1.38
0.88
1.62
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.75
1.75
1.25
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
@ 2.29-0.9%
Under 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.60+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1 ✓
12.8%
0-0
11.4%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.6%
Aves goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
13%
9.8%
4.6%
1.6%
1
7.8%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.1%
5.7%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aves goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
1.76
Sporting CP
1.76
Rio Ave
1.62
Famalicao
1.59
Guimaraes
1.47
GIL Vicente
1.26
Santa Clara
1.26
Moreirense
1.26
Maritimo
1.15
Boavista
1.15
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Belenenses
1.03
Setubal
1.00
Portimonense
0.97
Aves
0.50
Aves is 0.76 points worse than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.09
SC Braga
1.79
Famalicao
1.56
Guimaraes
1.56
Sporting CP
1.44
Rio Ave
1.41
Moreirense
1.24
GIL Vicente
1.18
Santa Clara
1.06
Pacos Ferreira
1.06
Maritimo
1.00
Tondela
0.88
Portimonense
0.88
Boavista
0.82
Belenenses
0.79
Setubal
0.79
Aves
0.71
Aves is 0.53 goals worse than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.65
Benfica
0.76
Sporting CP
1.00
Rio Ave
1.06
Guimaraes
1.12
Boavista
1.15
SC Braga
1.18
Santa Clara
1.21
Maritimo
1.24
Setubal
1.26
Tondela
1.29
GIL Vicente
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Portimonense
1.32
Famalicao
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Belenenses
1.59
Aves
2.00
Aves is 0.71 goals worse than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
A
Aves
For 4.0 · Against 8.4 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 19.5 · Total 34.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 4.3 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 17.0 · Total 33.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.8
12.2
5.2
5.6
4.7
32.9
33.6
32.3
vs Stronger (34)
12.4
12.2
12.7
5.0
5.7
4.4
32.2
34.2
30.5
vs Similar (16)
11.1
11.2
10.9
5.5
5.4
5.6
34.4
32.4
36.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
72%
68%
76%
76%
76%
76%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
28%
32%
24%
24%
24%
24%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.6
10.0
5.0
5.3
4.7
32.1
32.7
31.5
vs Stronger (10)
10.1
10.7
9.2
4.9
4.8
5.0
26.4
27.0
25.5
vs Similar (24)
10.3
10.2
10.4
4.7
4.8
4.5
32.5
34.6
30.8
vs Weaker (16)
10.3
11.0
9.6
5.6
6.2
4.9
35.0
34.2
35.8
% over line
62%
64%
60%
74%
80%
68%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
26%
20%
32%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aves
12.0
Guimaraes
11.5
Pacos Ferreira
11.2
Setubal
11.0
Boavista
10.9
Sporting CP
10.7
Benfica
10.6
SC Braga
10.5
Santa Clara
10.5
Tondela
10.5
Famalicao
10.4
Maritimo
10.3
Moreirense
10.3
Rio Ave
10.2
GIL Vicente
9.5
Belenenses
9.5
Portimonense
9.5
FC Porto
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sporting CP
6.3
Setubal
6.0
Famalicao
6.0
Boavista
5.8
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
SC Braga
5.6
Maritimo
5.5
Rio Ave
5.5
Benfica
5.3
Tondela
5.3
FC Porto
5.2
Aves
5.2
Moreirense
5.0
Santa Clara
5.0
Belenenses
4.8
Portimonense
4.8
Guimaraes
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Boavista
34.5
GIL Vicente
34.4
Pacos Ferreira
34.1
Setubal
33.2
Aves
32.9
Rio Ave
32.9
Tondela
32.9
Maritimo
32.8
Moreirense
32.1
FC Porto
31.9
Famalicao
31.5
Portimonense
31.5
Santa Clara
31.2
Belenenses
31.2
Sporting CP
31.2
Guimaraes
31.1
SC Braga
30.3
Benfica
27.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.0%
Under 9.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
81.4%
Under 3.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.2%
Under 21.5
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (21)
0.43
0.76
0.45
0.45
0.40
1.10
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.78
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.73
0.67
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.50
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.27
1.40
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.18
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (9)
0.33
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.69
0.62
0.50
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Guimaraes
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
Maritimo
Boavista
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Belenenses
Portimonense