This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.77
1.20
1.13
1.00
2.40
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.00
1.14
1.57
0.86
2.43
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.56
1.25
0.75
1.12
2.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.7%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.0%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.5%
Aves goals ↓
Setubal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
5.5%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.7%
13%
6.0%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.2%
9.7%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.3%
5.5%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aves goals (down), columns = Setubal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Aves is 0.06 points better than Setubal in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Aves is 0.09 goals worse than Setubal in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Aves is 0.32 goals better than Setubal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
A
Aves
For 4.9 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.3 · Against 15.6 · Total 32.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
S
Setubal
For 3.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.9 · Against 19.0 · Total 37.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
9.4
9.5
9.2
4.7
5.2
4.2
31.8
32.0
31.6
vs Stronger (16)
9.3
9.0
9.7
4.1
4.6
3.6
31.1
30.2
32.1
vs Similar (11)
9.5
10.8
8.7
5.5
6.8
4.9
32.9
36.0
31.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
46%
50%
74%
77%
71%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
26%
23%
29%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.2
2.8
2.7
2.8
35.9
34.8
37.0
vs Stronger (27)
9.9
10.1
9.7
2.6
2.8
2.3
35.7
34.0
37.7
vs Similar (23)
8.9
9.0
8.7
3.0
2.6
3.3
36.0
35.6
36.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
57%
38%
40%
40%
40%
96%
93%
100%
% under line
52%
43%
62%
60%
60%
60%
4%
7%
0%
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benfica
11.7
Sporting CP
11.6
Chaves
11.5
Feirense
11.4
Pacos Ferreira
11.1
Estoril
10.8
FC Porto
10.7
Guimaraes
10.6
Moreirense
10.4
SC Braga
10.0
Boavista
10.0
Tondela
10.0
Belenenses
9.6
Aves
9.4
Setubal
9.4
Portimonense
9.3
Maritimo
9.0
Rio Ave
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
5.9
Rio Ave
5.7
Pacos Ferreira
5.6
Moreirense
5.3
Setubal
5.1
FC Porto
5.0
Boavista
4.9
Tondela
4.9
Estoril
4.9
Guimaraes
4.8
Aves
4.7
Sporting CP
4.7
Maritimo
4.7
Belenenses
4.6
Portimonense
4.5
SC Braga
4.5
Chaves
4.4
Benfica
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
35.9
Feirense
35.7
Rio Ave
33.5
Belenenses
33.2
SC Braga
32.9
Guimaraes
32.6
Estoril
32.5
Maritimo
32.1
Moreirense
31.9
Aves
31.8
Sporting CP
31.7
Pacos Ferreira
31.7
Portimonense
31.5
Boavista
31.4
Tondela
31.3
FC Porto
31.2
Chaves
30.7
Benfica
28.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.2%
Under 9.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.7%
Under 3.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
99.1%
Under 21.5
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.63
0.38
0.69
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
0.81
0.11
0.78
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.36
1.00
0.50
1.14
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.33
0.53
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.86
0.43
0.71
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.88
0.25
0.38
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.81
0.54
0.62
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.94
0.33
0.78
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
1.00
0.25
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
41% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.87
0.60
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.14
0.71
0.86
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.69
1.00
0.38
0.88
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Chaves
Maritimo
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Moreirense
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril