This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.17
1.31
1.31
1.43
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.35
1.58
1.58
1.55
1.09
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
0-1 ✓
10.0%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.1%
AVS goals ↓
Tondela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.1%
7.6%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.4%
2.9%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AVS goals (down), columns = Tondela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
AVS is 0.44 points better than Tondela in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
AVS is 0.12 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
AVS is 0.26 goals better than Tondela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
AVS is 5.8 percentage points better than Tondela in terms of average possession (53% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AVS
For 5.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tondela
For 5.9 · Against 6.5 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AVS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
11.6
10.6
12.7
4.5
4.4
4.6
27.5
28.9
26.0
vs Stronger (4)
11.2
11.0
11.5
5.5
6.5
4.5
24.5
33.5
15.5
vs Similar (25)
11.7
10.5
13.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
28.3
28.0
28.6
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
-
12.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
62%
50%
75%
67%
62%
71%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
38%
50%
25%
33%
38%
29%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.3
10.5
5.1
5.0
5.2
28.2
26.7
29.7
vs Stronger (6)
11.8
13.0
11.0
7.2
2.7
11.7
28.2
22.5
32.0
vs Similar (38)
10.5
10.8
10.1
5.1
5.8
4.3
28.5
27.0
30.4
vs Weaker (6)
12.6
17.0
11.5
3.3
1.5
4.2
26.4
30.0
25.5
% over line
66%
68%
64%
74%
76%
72%
89%
82%
95%
% under line
34%
32%
36%
26%
24%
28%
11%
18%
5%
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
12.4
AVS
11.6
Feirense
11.1
Oliveirense
11.1
Vilaverdense
10.8
Tondela
10.7
FC Porto B
10.6
Benfica B
10.6
Mafra
10.5
Leixoes
10.3
União de Leiria
10.3
Penafiel
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.2
Pacos Ferreira
10.0
Torreense
9.9
Maritimo
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Santa Clara
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
6.1
Santa Clara
6.1
Oliveirense
5.9
Leixoes
5.8
Pacos Ferreira
5.6
AVS
5.5
Nacional
5.4
Tondela
5.4
Benfica B
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
FC Porto B
5.2
União de Leiria
5.1
Feirense
5.1
Academico Viseu
4.9
Torreense
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Mafra
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.7
Penafiel
29.7
Leixoes
29.7
Maritimo
29.6
Oliveirense
29.6
Santa Clara
29.5
Vilaverdense
28.5
Tondela
28.3
Nacional
27.8
AVS
27.5
Benfica B
26.8
Torreense
26.8
Feirense
26.3
União de Leiria
26.1
Mafra
25.4
Academico Viseu
25.4
FC Porto B
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.3%
Under 9.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.7%
Under 3.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
90.2%
Under 21.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AVS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.64
0.64
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.57
0.64
0.73
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.62
0.44
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.57
0.75
0.58
0.27
0.55
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AVS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AVS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.57
0.82
0.45
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tondela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tondela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.69
0.88
1.14
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.78
0.83
1.00
1.27
0.55
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (AVS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AVS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AVS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tondela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AVS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bernardo Martins67%
Anthony Correia33%
John Mercado33%
Jorge Teixeira0%
Nenê0%
Stênio0%
Clayton0%
Léo Alaba0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Clayton67%
Léo Alaba33%
Jorge Teixeira0%
Nenê0%
Bernardo Martins0%
Anthony Correia0%
John Mercado0%
Stênio0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Léo Alaba33%
Jorge Teixeira0%
Nenê0%
Bernardo Martins0%
Anthony Correia0%
John Mercado0%
Stênio0%
Clayton0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
John Mercado100%
Nenê67%
Jorge Teixeira0%
Bernardo Martins0%
Anthony Correia0%
Stênio0%
Clayton0%
Léo Alaba0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
Tondela · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Pedro Henryque15%
Bebeto12%
Emmanuel Maviram10%
João Silva8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Cicero6%
Makan Aïko6%
Rodrigo Conceição5%
Jordan Siebatcheu5%
Sphephelo Sithole4%
Joe Hodge4%
Tiago Manso4%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Hugo Félix0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rémy Vita50%
Brayan Medina36%
Cicero33%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka30%
Tiago Manso25%
Miro25%
João Afonso23%
Sphephelo Sithole23%
Pedro Henryque21%
Rodrigo Conceição20%
Emmanuel Maviram20%
Christian Marques19%
Rony Lopes19%
Bebeto17%
Afonso Rodrigues14%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Joe Hodge12%
Makan Aïko11%
Juan Rodríguez10%
João Silva8%
Moudjatovic8%
Ivan Cavaleiro8%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Bernardo Fontes6%
Hélder Tavares5%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
André Ceitil0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Yarlen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Makan Aïko11%
Rony Lopes6%
Pedro Henryque6%
Cicero6%
Emmanuel Maviram5%
Brayan Medina4%
Joe Hodge4%
Hugo Félix4%
Tiago Manso4%
Jordan Siebatcheu0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Yefrei Rodriguez0%
Juan Rodríguez0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Henryque30%
Rony Lopes25%
Ivan Cavaleiro15%
Jordan Siebatcheu14%
Hugo Félix8%
Yefrei Rodriguez8%
Makan Aïko6%
Juan Rodríguez3%
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka0%
Arjen Van Der Heide0%
João Afonso0%
Bebeto0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Cicero0%
André Ceitil0%
Hélder Tavares0%
Tiago Manso0%
Christian Marques0%
Sphephelo Sithole0%
João Silva0%
Moudja Sie Ouattara0%
Rémy Vita0%
Xabi Huarte0%
Joe Hodge0%
Emmanuel Maviram0%
Brayan Medina0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Afonso Rodrigues0%
Miro0%
Yarlen0%
Moudjatovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
AVS (20)
€7m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AVS's squad is €3m less valuable than Tondela's (€7m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
SC (11)
€9m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
UDL (9)
€4m
AVS (8)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
AVS and Tondela have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
AVS and Tondela have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
SC (12)
€12m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AVS's defence is €3m less valuable than Tondela's (€3m vs €6m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Santa Clara
Nacional
Maritimo
Pacos Ferreira
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Penafiel
Leixoes
Feirense
Oliveirense
Vilaverdense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa