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Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 01/10/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Vs
38%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 43.8% · @ 2.11
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.32
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✓ Hit
33.6%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.26
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D32W22D21W31W21W23LH·ARB30/07A·QUE05/08H·HAM13/08A·COV20/08H·DUN26/08A·MOR03/09A·RAI17/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.431.671.002.251.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)2.001.431.671.002.251.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D11D00D41W14L01L20W20W32WH·HAM29/04H·QUE30/07H·QUE30/07A·ARB06/08H·COV13/08A·PAR19/08H·MOR27/08A·RAI03/09A·RAI03/09A·DUN17/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.101.731.071.531.13
vs Stronger (23)1.701.301.921.171.451.45
vs Similar (7)1.430.431.000.671.750.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.99+1.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.76-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
8.5%
2-1
8.5%
0-1 ✓
7.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
08.5%7.9%5.8%2.5%0.8%
18.6%14%7.9%3.3%1.1%
26.7%8.5%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.0%3.8%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Airdrie United
2.25
Dundee
1.96
Queens Park
1.61
Ayr
1.61
Queen's Park
1.61
Ayr Utd
1.61
Morton
1.60
Partick
1.52
Alloa Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Arbroath
0.96
Hamilton Academical
0.93
Cove Rangers
0.87
Hamilton
0.86
Falkirk
0.00
Ayr Utd is 0.17 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Airdrie United
2.25
Dundee
2.02
Queens Park
1.75
Queen's Park
1.75
Partick
1.73
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Morton
1.52
Alloa Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.37
Raith Rvs
1.28
Raith Rovers
1.28
Cove Rangers
1.12
Falkirk
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.95
Hamilton
0.86
Arbroath
0.79
Ayr Utd is 0.33 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.37).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Airdrie United
1.00
Dundee
1.02
Morton
1.19
Ayr
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.19
Arbroath
1.23
Inverness CT
1.29
Raith Rvs
1.36
Raith Rovers
1.36
Partick
1.38
Queens Park
1.44
Queen's Park
1.44
Hamilton Academical
1.70
Hamilton
1.75
Cove Rangers
2.19
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Falkirk
3.50
Ayr Utd is 0.09 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 5.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.4

🚩 Corners

140321043676425755733633514913612101096A·RAIH·QUEH·HAMA·MORA·QUEH·KILA·AYRH·DUNA·RAIH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

801212312111244233124211385A·RAIH·QUEH·HAMA·MORA·QUEH·KILA·AYRH·DUNA·RAIH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.9 · Total 20.0

⚠️ Fouls

25010138911714111210148125710106131023171825222217171623A·RAIH·QUEH·HAMA·MORA·QUEH·KILA·AYRH·DUNA·RAIH·ARB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (7)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (7)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.98.12.72.72.822.420.823.9
vs Stronger (39)8.69.87.42.82.63.022.520.824.1
vs Similar (11)10.410.210.62.52.82.222.120.823.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line44%57%32%30%29%31%56%48%64%
% under line56%43%68%70%71%69%44%52%36%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.3
Hamilton
10.4
Queens Park
10.3
Morton
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Ayr
10.0
Airdrie United
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Partick
9.7
Raith Rvs
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Falkirk
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.0
Hamilton
3.8
Dundee
3.7
Cove Rangers
3.6
Ayr
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Inverness CT
3.4
Queens Park
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Partick
3.2
Morton
3.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dundee
24.5
Hamilton
23.3
Inverness CT
23.0
Arbroath
22.7
Falkirk
22.2
Cove Rangers
21.4
Raith Rvs
21.4
Morton
21.0
Ayr
20.6
Partick
20.6
Airdrie United
19.2
Queens Park
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.5%
Under 3.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.4%
Under 21.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L11D00D11D10W02LH·ARB30/07A·QUE05/08H·HAM13/08A·COV20/08H·DUN26/08A·MOR03/09A·RAI17/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.860.670.670.251.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.430.860.670.670.251.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D11D00D20W02L00D00D00D21WH·HAM29/04H·QUE30/07H·QUE30/07A·ARB06/08H·COV13/08A·PAR19/08H·MOR27/08A·RAI03/09A·RAI03/09A·DUN17/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.800.530.800.67
vs Stronger (23)0.780.700.830.580.730.82
vs Similar (7)0.860.290.670.331.000.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W11D21W20W11D21WH·ARB30/07A·QUE05/08H·HAM13/08A·COV20/08H·DUN26/08A·MOR03/09A·RAI17/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.571.000.332.000.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.570.571.000.332.000.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D21W12L01L20W20W11DH·HAM29/04H·QUE30/07H·QUE30/07A·ARB06/08H·COV13/08A·PAR19/08H·MOR27/08A·RAI03/09A·RAI03/09A·DUN17/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.500.930.530.730.47
vs Stronger (23)0.910.611.080.580.730.64
vs Similar (7)0.570.140.330.330.750.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards89.1%--------
Under 25.5 fouls82.3%--------
Under 4.5 cards77.5%--------
Over 1.575.0%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd's squad is €2m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Inverness CT have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (7)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd's defence is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€1m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
AU wins
0
Draws
0
IC wins

Head-to-head

Ayr Utd vs Inverness CT · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22ARaith Rovers Vs AU3-2
03/09/22AMorton Vs AU1-2
26/08/22HAU Vs Dundee3-1
20/08/22ACove Rangers Vs AU1-2
13/08/22HAU Vs Hamilton Academical2-2
05/08/22AQueen's Park Vs AU2-3
30/07/22HAU Vs Arbroath0-0

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/22ADundee Vs IC2-3
03/09/22ARaith Rvs Vs IC0-2
03/09/22ARaith Rovers Vs IC0-2
27/08/22HIC Vs Morton0-1
19/08/22APartick Vs IC4-1
13/08/22HIC Vs Cove Rangers4-1
06/08/22AArbroath Vs IC0-0
30/07/22HIC Vs Queen's Park1-1
30/07/22HIC Vs Queens Park1-1
29/04/22HIC Vs Hamilton4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL2.00
HomeDDW1.67
AwayWWWL2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%33%75%
AVG goals3.432.674.00
Over 1.5 %86%67%100%
Over 2.5 %86%67%100%
Over 3.5 %57%67%50%
Scored2.001.672.25
Conceded1.431.001.75
BTTS86%67%100%
Clean Sheet14%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.60
HomeWDDWL1.67
AwayDLWWW1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.542.622.46
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.501.621.38
Conceded1.041.001.08
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet32%29%35%
Corners9.009.908.14
Cards3.193.053.32

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DundeeDundee52102
56%
2.0
10553+52
3.0
79%
52%
38%
9.8
56%
3.6
38%
21.2
50%
5
1222.01.0
-
2MortonMorton5283
42%
1.6
7962+17
2.7
77%
58%
27%
11.9
81%
5.3
75%
23.4
56%
1
0001.51.2
-
3PartickPartick5279
42%
1.5
9072+18
3.1
81%
63%
42%
10.8
75%
4.1
44%
19.9
31%
3
1111.71.4
-
4Inverness CTInverness CT5275
38%
1.4
7167+4
2.7
77%
54%
23%
12.5
62%
2.4
25%
15.9
25%
1
0001.41.3
-
5
A
Ayr
3658
44%
1.6
6143+18
2.9
81%
56%
39%
10.8
58%
3.1
31%
18.9
28%
0
0001.71.2
-
6Ayr UtdAyr Utd3658
44%
1.6
6143+18
2.9
81%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.2
-
7Queens ParkQueens Park3658
47%
1.6
6352+11
3.2
83%
61%
39%
12.6
86%
3.0
36%
18.5
25%
0
0001.81.4
-
8QueenQueen's Park3658
47%
1.6
6352+11
3.2
83%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.4
-
9ArbroathArbroath5250
17%
1.0
4164-23
2.0
65%
27%
13%
11.8
69%
4.3
62%
20.7
50%
1
0000.81.2
-
10Cove RangersCove Rangers5245
19%
0.9
58114-56
3.3
87%
62%
37%
10.2
56%
3.8
56%
20.2
38%
0
0001.12.2
-
11Raith RoversRaith Rovers3643
31%
1.2
4649-3
2.6
78%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
12
RR
Raith Rvs
3643
31%
1.2
4649-3
2.6
78%
44%
25%
9.6
47%
4.1
61%
19.7
42%
0
0001.31.4
-
13Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical4037
22%
0.9
3868-30
2.6
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
14
H
Hamilton
3631
19%
0.9
3163-32
2.6
69%
42%
28%
11.3
69%
4.3
56%
22.6
56%
0
0000.91.8
-
15Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United49
75%
2.2
94+5
3.2
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
16Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic23
50%
1.5
35-2
4.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.5
-
17FalkirkFalkirk20
0%
0.0
27-5
4.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.03.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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