Ayr Utd vs Morton Result & Analysis

Ayr Utd are the clear favourites, with the model picking a home win and a 52% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of Morton winning. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, though the most likely total is 2 goals, at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance, while the 2-1 and 1-0 outcomes each sit at 9.7%. Ayr’s home form shows they average 2.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Morton, on the road, averages only 0.57 scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 84.7%, Under 25.5 fouls at 81.8%, Over 1.5 at 77.3% (miss) and Under 3.5 at 70.1% (hit). Both sides have recently drawn 1-1 matches, but Ayr’s stronger home attack gives them the edge.

The match finished 1-0 to Ayr Utd, extending their recent run of mixed results with a win after a draw. The model’s favourite was a home win, assigned a 52% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The expected total of 2.8 goals fell short, as only one goal was scored. The model’s selection of Over 1.5, at 77.3%, missed, while its Under 3.5, at 70.1%, hit. Ayr’s 1-0 victory matched the most likely score of 1-1 in the model’s distribution, but the final outcome still favored the home side, confirming the model’s overall assessment.