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Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Vs
47%
27%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Queen
Queen's Park
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied 56.3% · @ 1.62
Edge
-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.86
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 20.1% · @ 4.55
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W02L61W40W30W12L11D01L02L22DA·PAR06/05H·PAR09/05A·ANN15/07H·ARB19/07H·FOR22/07A·ST 27/07A·ARB01/08H·RAI09/08A·PAR16/08A·MOR23/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.131.710.861.881.38
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (27)1.671.191.750.921.601.40
vs Weaker (2)4.500.503.000.006.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D22D15L12L50W13L21W11D13L11DA·HAM19/04A·AYR26/04H·RAI02/05A·SPA12/07H·BRE15/07A·FAL22/07H·COV26/07A·RAI02/08H·ARB09/08A·AIR23/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.871.292.291.001.50
vs Stronger (5)0.602.200.004.000.751.75
vs Similar (25)1.241.801.382.151.081.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.0%
@ 1.73-0.3%
Under 2.5
47.0%
@ 1.98+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.8%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
Queen's Park goals →
01234
07.2%5.9%4.1%1.6%0.5%
18.8%13%6.8%2.6%0.8%
28.1%9.5%5.5%2.1%0.6%
34.4%5.1%3.0%1.2%0.3%
41.8%2.1%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = Queen's Park goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Ayr Utd is 0.06 points worse than Queen's Park in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Ayr Utd is 0.08 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Ayr Utd is 0.03 goals better than Queen's Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

90412111455329A·PARA·ST H·ARBA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

QueenQueen's Park

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.40.10.7---
vs Stronger (1)---0.00.0----
vs Similar (47)---0.40.10.7---
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---4%0%8%---
% under line---96%100%92%---
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (42)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Ross County
11.6
Queens Park
11.5
Morton
11.1
ST Johnstone
10.6
Airdrie United
10.4
Dunfermline
10.3
Partick
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Ayr
10.0
Stenhousemuir
9.3
Raith Rvs
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Morton
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Ayr
4.0
Partick
4.0
Raith Rvs
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Queens Park
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Airdrie United
3.5
Ross County
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Ayr
22.6
Raith Rvs
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.3
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.0
Ross County
20.7
Airdrie United
20.5
Dunfermline
20.1
Partick
19.9
Arbroath
19.9
Queens Park
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.0%
Under 9.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.8%
Under 21.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L20W10W30W02L10W01L02L01LA·PAR06/05H·PAR09/05A·ANN15/07H·ARB19/07H·FOR22/07A·ST 27/07A·ARB01/08H·RAI09/08A·PAR16/08A·MOR23/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.571.000.430.560.69
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.670.630.920.500.470.73
vs Weaker (2)2.500.003.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W02L10W10W11D11D10W00D00DA·HAM19/04A·AYR26/04H·RAI02/05A·SPA12/07H·BRE15/07A·FAL22/07H·COV26/07A·RAI02/08H·ARB09/08A·AIR23/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.800.360.790.500.81
vs Stronger (5)0.201.000.001.000.251.00
vs Similar (25)0.480.760.380.770.580.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L41W30W00D10W01L00D00D21WA·PAR06/05H·PAR09/05A·ANN15/07H·ARB19/07H·FOR22/07A·ST 27/07A·ARB01/08H·RAI09/08A·PAR16/08A·MOR23/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.570.710.431.310.69
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (27)1.000.560.830.421.130.67
vs Weaker (2)2.000.500.000.004.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QueenQueen's Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L13L02L40W02L10W01L13L11DA·HAM19/04A·AYR26/04H·RAI02/05A·SPA12/07H·BRE15/07A·FAL22/07H·COV26/07A·RAI02/08H·ARB09/08A·AIR23/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.070.931.500.500.69
vs Stronger (5)0.401.200.003.000.500.75
vs Similar (25)0.761.041.001.380.500.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls77.8%--------
Over 2.5 cards77.7%--------
Under 5.5 cards76.9%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
AU wins
3
Draws
1
QP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25HAU Vs Queen's Park2-2
04/03/25AQueen's Park Vs AU2-3
16/11/24HAU Vs Queen's Park3-2
21/09/24AQueen's Park Vs AU1-1
23/03/24HAU Vs Queen's Park1-2
27/01/24AQueen's Park Vs AU1-2
04/11/23HAU Vs Queen's Park2-2
22/09/23AQueen's Park Vs AU2-5

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AMorton Vs AU2-2
16/08/25APartick Vs AU2-0
09/08/25HAU Vs Raith Rovers0-1
01/08/25AArbroath Vs AU1-1
27/07/25AST Mirren Vs AU2-1
22/07/25HAU Vs Forfar3-0
19/07/25HAU Vs Arbroath4-0
15/07/25AAnnan Athletic Vs AU1-6
09/05/25HAU Vs Partick0-2
06/05/25APartick Vs AU0-1

QueenQueen's Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25AAirdrie United Vs QP1-1
09/08/25HQP Vs Arbroath1-3
02/08/25ARaith Rovers Vs QP1-1
26/07/25HQP Vs Cove Rangers2-1
22/07/25AFalkirk Vs QP3-1
15/07/25HQP Vs Brechin5-0
12/07/25ASpartans Vs QP2-1
02/05/25HQP Vs Raith Rovers1-5
26/04/25AAyr Utd Vs QP2-2
19/04/25AHamilton Academical Vs QP0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.72
HomeDLWWL2.00
AwayWLDLD1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%60%40%
AVG goals2.822.962.68
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %44%56%32%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.762.041.48
Conceded1.060.921.20
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners---
Cards4.752.005.67
Queen
Queen's Park
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLD1.08
HomeLLWWL1.24
AwayDLLDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.783.082.48
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %30%40%20%
Scored1.281.521.04
Conceded1.501.561.44
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ST JohnstoneST Johnstone48103
60%
2.1
8734+53
2.5
67%
44%
29%
10.0
50%
4.8
83%
22.5
67%
5
2121.80.7
-
2PartickPartick4889
48%
1.9
7246+26
2.5
75%
44%
27%
10.7
67%
4.6
58%
20.2
33%
3
1111.51.0
-
3DunfermlineDunfermline4874
44%
1.5
6949+20
2.5
73%
44%
25%
7.0
8%
4.8
83%
23.9
67%
4
2021.41.0
-
4ArbroathArbroath4871
38%
1.5
6055+5
2.4
69%
46%
21%
8.2
33%
4.2
67%
23.8
67%
1
0001.21.1
-
5MortonMorton4850
21%
1.0
4866-18
2.4
71%
44%
25%
10.2
58%
4.5
50%
23.4
58%
1
0001.01.4
-
6Ross CountyRoss County4849
25%
1.0
5075-25
2.6
69%
50%
29%
8.0
25%
3.9
58%
22.8
67%
1
0011.01.6
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United5047
20%
0.9
4667-21
2.3
64%
46%
22%
10.6
67%
3.3
50%
18.3
25%
0
0000.91.3
-
8Raith RoversRaith Rovers3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.21.2
-
9
RR
Raith Rvs
3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
9.6
47%
4.3
56%
21.0
53%
0
0001.21.2
-
10Queens ParkQueens Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
8.7
39%
4.1
69%
21.8
56%
0
0001.01.3
-
11QueenQueen's Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
12
A
Ayr
3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
10.0
50%
4.5
69%
22.4
58%
0
0001.11.3
-
13Ayr UtdAyr Utd3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
14Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
15StenhousemuirStenhousemuir45
25%
1.2
54+1
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
16Queen of the SouthQueen of the South22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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