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Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone Result & Analysis

Date: 01/05/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 0-1
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Vs
21%
28%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Ayr Utd a 21% win probability against ST Johnstone in the Scotland: Championship on 2026-05-01, with 28% for the draw and 51% for ST Johnstone. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (81%), Over 2.5 cards (79%), Under 3.5 (75%), Under 5.5 cards (75%).

Results analysis

Ayr Utd finished 0-1 against ST Johnstone (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 21% home win, 28% draw and 51% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (75%). Missed: Over 1.5 (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.13
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.56
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✓ Hit
51.1%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.72
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L11D01L03L11D03L10W12L12LA·ARB03/03H·QUE10/03A·QUE14/03H·MOR21/03A·RAI27/03H·PAR04/04H·DUN07/04H·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.331.071.291.121.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.071.301.151.381.001.21
vs Weaker (3)1.331.670.000.002.002.50
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W10W00D11D11D42W40W20W20W20WA·MOR07/03H·ROS14/03A·PAR20/03H·QUE28/03H·QUE28/03A·ARB04/04H·AIR11/04A·DUN21/04H·RAI24/04H·RAI24/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.832.060.811.570.86
vs Stronger (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (25)2.081.002.311.001.831.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.78-5.9%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.93+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1 ✓
11.5%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.4%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
5.6%
0-3
5.3%
Ayr Utd goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
01234
09.3%12%10%5.3%2.1%
16.4%13%9.4%5.0%2.0%
23.6%5.6%4.4%2.3%0.9%
31.1%1.8%1.4%0.7%0.3%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr Utd goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Ayr Utd is 1.06 points worse than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 2.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Ayr Utd is 0.76 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Ayr Utd is 0.60 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 0.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone

For 7.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 9.5

🚩 Corners

150117287826372813111915109994H·RAIH·QUEH·AYRA·QUEA·RAIA·AYRH·RAIH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

7033222343164152364577555H·RAIH·QUEH·AYRA·QUEA·RAIA·AYRH·RAIH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.0

⚠️ Fouls

340161312111420151181813751413102923342626201923H·RAIH·QUEH·AYRA·QUEA·RAIA·AYRH·RAIH·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.20.00.3---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (44)---0.20.00.4---
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---2%0%4%---
% under line---98%100%96%---
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.49.81.41.61.223.325.220.5
vs Stronger (5)11.010.011.74.45.53.722.624.021.7
vs Similar (40)9.09.58.01.11.20.923.125.019.3
vs Weaker (5)8.08.0-0.81.30.029.029.0-
% over line47%44%50%24%30%17%67%78%50%
% under line53%56%50%76%70%83%33%22%50%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Morton
11.0
Ross County
10.9
ST Johnstone
10.3
Partick
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Arbroath
9.8
Ayr
9.8
Dunfermline
9.3
Queens Park
9.0
Raith Rvs
8.7
Stenhousemuir
8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Ayr Utd
9.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.6
Ayr
4.5
Partick
4.4
ST Johnstone
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.2
Queens Park
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.3
ST Johnstone
22.8
Ayr
22.7
Morton
21.8
Raith Rvs
21.6
Queens Park
21.4
Ross County
21.4
Dunfermline
21.2
Arbroath
20.7
Partick
20.2
Airdrie United
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.5%
Under 9.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.5%
Under 3.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
48.2%
Under 21.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D01L01L00D01L00D11D10WA·ARB03/03H·QUE10/03A·QUE14/03H·MOR21/03A·RAI27/03H·PAR04/04H·DUN07/04H·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.500.640.430.880.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.780.440.690.460.860.43
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D01L01L11D30W00D20W20WA·MOR07/03H·ROS14/03A·PAR20/03H·QUE28/03H·QUE28/03A·ARB04/04H·AIR11/04A·DUN21/04H·RAI24/04H·RAI24/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.431.380.310.210.57
vs Stronger (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.880.521.460.380.250.67
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls81.1%--------
Over 2.5 cards79.0%--------
Under 3.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards75.3%--------
Under 11.5 corners73.0%--------
Over 1.572.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (31)
€6m
SJ (26)
€5m
PAR (22)
€3m
AYR (26)
€3m
QP (28)
€3m
RR (21)
€2m
RC (26)
€2m
MOR (26)
€2m
ARB (25)
€1m
STE (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (10)
€3m
SJ (9)
€3m
QP (14)
€2m
RC (9)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
AYR (8)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (7)
€1m
SJ (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RR (8)
€1m
AYR (7)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
RC (5)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
QP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (14)
€2m
SJ (10)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
AYR (11)
€1m
QP (12)
€1m
RR (8)
€1m
RC (12)
€1m
MOR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Ayr Utd vs ST Johnstone · H/A from AU
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26AST Johnstone Vs AU3-1
12/12/25HAU Vs ST Johnstone2-4
04/10/25AST Johnstone Vs AU0-0

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AAirdrie United Vs AU2-1
18/04/26ARoss County Vs AU2-1
11/04/26HAU Vs Arbroath1-0
07/04/26HAU Vs Dunfermline0-3
04/04/26HAU Vs Partick1-1
27/03/26ARaith Rovers Vs AU3-0
21/03/26HAU Vs Morton0-1
14/03/26AQueen's Park Vs AU1-1
10/03/26HAU Vs Queen's Park1-2
03/03/26AArbroath Vs AU1-1

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/26HSJ Vs Raith Rovers2-0
24/04/26HSJ Vs Raith Rvs2-0
21/04/26ADunfermline Vs SJ0-2
11/04/26HSJ Vs Airdrie United4-0
04/04/26AArbroath Vs SJ2-4
28/03/26HSJ Vs Queen's Park1-1
28/03/26HSJ Vs Queens Park1-1
20/03/26APartick Vs SJ0-0
14/03/26HSJ Vs Ross County1-0
07/03/26AMorton Vs SJ0-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.16
HomeLLDLW1.17
AwayDDLLL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.542.462.62
Over 1.5 %74%75%73%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %22%17%27%
Scored1.161.211.12
Conceded1.381.251.50
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet22%17%27%
Corners---
Cards9.00-9.00
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.00
HomeDDWWW2.00
AwayDWDWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%56%57%
AVG goals2.582.592.57
Over 1.5 %72%70%74%
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Over 3.5 %28%30%26%
Scored1.761.811.70
Conceded0.820.780.87
BTTS46%41%52%
Clean Sheet48%48%48%
Corners9.609.449.83
Cards4.674.674.67

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ST JohnstoneST Johnstone48103
60%
2.1
8734+53
2.5
67%
44%
29%
10.0
50%
4.8
83%
22.5
67%
5
3121.80.7
-
2PartickPartick4889
48%
1.9
7246+26
2.5
75%
44%
27%
10.7
67%
4.6
58%
20.2
33%
3
1111.51.0
-
3DunfermlineDunfermline4874
44%
1.5
6949+20
2.5
73%
44%
25%
7.0
8%
4.8
83%
23.9
67%
6
3121.41.0
-
4ArbroathArbroath4871
38%
1.5
6055+5
2.4
69%
46%
21%
8.2
33%
4.2
67%
23.8
67%
1
0111.21.1
-
5MortonMorton4850
21%
1.0
4866-18
2.4
71%
44%
25%
10.2
58%
4.5
50%
23.4
58%
2
1111.01.4
-
6Ross CountyRoss County4849
25%
1.0
5075-25
2.6
69%
50%
29%
8.0
25%
3.9
58%
22.8
67%
2
1011.01.6
-
7Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United5047
20%
0.9
4667-21
2.3
64%
46%
22%
10.6
67%
3.3
50%
18.3
25%
0
0000.91.3
-
8Raith RoversRaith Rovers3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
9
RR
Raith Rvs		3645
33%
1.2
4342+1
2.4
75%
42%
19%
9.6
47%
4.3
56%
21.0
53%
2
1111.21.2
-
10QueenQueen's Park3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
11
QP
Queens Park		3641
25%
1.1
3548-13
2.3
67%
39%
19%
8.7
39%
4.1
69%
21.8
56%
3
2011.01.3
-
12
A
Ayr		3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
10.0
50%
4.5
69%
22.4
58%
3
1111.11.3
-
13Ayr UtdAyr Utd3639
22%
1.1
3847-9
2.4
69%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
14Alloa AthleticAlloa Athletic49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
15StenhousemuirStenhousemuir45
25%
1.2
54+1
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
16Queen of the SouthQueen of the South22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
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Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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