This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.50
0.69
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.12
1.57
0.79
0.92
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
@ 1.92-0.2%
Under 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.82+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Ayr goals ↓
Morton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
5.8%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.6%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.3%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr goals (down), columns = Morton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Airdrie United
2.25
Dundee
1.96
Queens Park
1.61
Ayr
1.61
Queen's Park
1.61
Ayr Utd
1.61
Morton
1.60
Partick
1.52
Alloa Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Arbroath
0.96
Hamilton Academical
0.93
Cove Rangers
0.87
Hamilton
0.86
Falkirk
0.00
Ayr is 0.01 points better than Morton in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airdrie United
2.25
Dundee
2.02
Queens Park
1.75
Queen's Park
1.75
Partick
1.73
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Morton
1.52
Alloa Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.37
Raith Rvs
1.28
Raith Rovers
1.28
Cove Rangers
1.12
Falkirk
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.95
Hamilton
0.86
Arbroath
0.79
Ayr is 0.18 goals better than Morton in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Airdrie United
1.00
Dundee
1.02
Morton
1.19
Ayr
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.19
Arbroath
1.23
Inverness CT
1.29
Raith Rvs
1.36
Raith Rovers
1.36
Partick
1.38
Queens Park
1.44
Queen's Park
1.44
Hamilton Academical
1.70
Hamilton
1.75
Cove Rangers
2.19
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Falkirk
3.50
Ayr is 0.00 goals worse than Morton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
A
Ayr
For 6.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 6.5 · Total 16.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
For 5.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.3
3.1
3.5
19.6
20.0
19.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
10.5
10.6
10.4
3.3
3.2
3.5
19.0
19.3
18.7
vs Weaker (12)
10.7
11.3
10.0
3.2
2.8
3.5
21.3
22.3
20.3
% over line
58%
60%
56%
46%
40%
52%
34%
40%
28%
% under line
42%
40%
44%
54%
60%
48%
66%
60%
72%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.2
11.3
2.5
2.3
2.7
21.3
22.8
19.7
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
9.7
11.0
4.0
3.0
5.3
20.0
19.3
20.7
vs Similar (43)
10.8
10.2
11.4
2.2
2.1
2.3
21.6
23.5
19.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
58%
78%
30%
27%
33%
43%
53%
33%
% under line
32%
42%
22%
70%
73%
67%
57%
47%
67%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee
11.2
Queens Park
10.8
Hamilton
10.7
Ayr
10.6
Morton
10.6
Arbroath
10.3
Falkirk
10.2
Raith Rvs
10.1
Airdrie United
9.8
Partick
9.7
Inverness CT
9.7
Cove Rangers
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Falkirk
4.0
Hamilton
4.0
Raith Rvs
3.8
Dundee
3.7
Cove Rangers
3.7
Queens Park
3.5
Arbroath
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Ayr
3.3
Morton
3.3
Inverness CT
3.3
Partick
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundee
24.2
Hamilton
23.4
Inverness CT
22.5
Arbroath
22.3
Falkirk
21.8
Cove Rangers
21.7
Raith Rvs
21.3
Morton
21.2
Partick
20.4
Ayr
19.6
Queens Park
18.9
Airdrie United
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
69.9%
Under 9.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
35.5%
Under 21.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.87
0.87
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.83
1.09
1.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.29
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.62
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.13
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.57
0.91
0.45
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.88
0.25
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.58
0.86
0.29
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Morton
Dundee
Partick
Inverness CT
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Arbroath
Cove Rangers
Raith Rovers
Hamilton Academical
Airdrie United
Alloa Athletic
Falkirk