This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.30
0.93
3.73
0.73
2.87
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.00
0.75
3.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
3.50
0.96
3.77
0.77
3.23
1.15
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.5%
@ 1.48+0.9%
Under 2.5
35.5%
@ 2.59-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.9%
0-1
5.0%
0-2
5.0%
1-0 ✓
5.0%
2-0
4.9%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.0%
5.0%
2.8%
1.2%
1
5.0%
11%
8.3%
4.6%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.2%
6.9%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.7%
4.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.1%
1.9%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Ajax goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AZ Alkmaar
2.24
Ajax
2.24
Feyenoord
2.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.88
Willem II
1.69
Utrecht
1.64
Vitesse
1.58
Heracles
1.38
Groningen
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.27
Heerenveen
1.27
Emmen
1.23
VVV Venlo
1.08
Twente
1.04
PEC Zwolle
1.00
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Den Haag
0.73
Waalwijk
0.58
AZ Alkmaar and Ajax are level in average points per game (both 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.72
AZ Alkmaar
2.16
PSV Eindhoven
2.08
Utrecht
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Vitesse
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.58
Heerenveen
1.58
Heracles
1.54
Willem II
1.42
PEC Zwolle
1.42
Twente
1.31
Emmen
1.23
Fortuna Sittard
1.12
Groningen
1.04
Waalwijk
1.04
Den Haag
0.96
VVV Venlo
0.92
AZ Alkmaar is 0.56 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (2.16 vs 2.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AZ Alkmaar
0.68
Ajax
0.92
Groningen
1.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.08
Heracles
1.31
Willem II
1.31
Vitesse
1.35
Utrecht
1.36
Feyenoord
1.40
Heerenveen
1.58
Emmen
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.73
Twente
1.77
VVV Venlo
1.96
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
Den Haag
2.08
PEC Zwolle
2.12
Waalwijk
2.31
AZ Alkmaar is 0.24 goals better than Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
For 6.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.4
10.2
3.2
2.5
4.0
21.7
20.2
23.3
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
9.0
8.0
4.3
2.0
5.5
21.3
22.0
21.0
vs Similar (8)
9.8
10.7
9.2
2.8
2.0
3.2
23.8
24.7
23.2
vs Weaker (39)
11.3
11.7
10.8
3.2
2.6
4.0
21.4
19.5
23.6
% over line
66%
64%
68%
38%
24%
52%
54%
40%
68%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
62%
76%
48%
46%
60%
32%
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.3
10.8
3.0
2.6
3.4
21.2
21.0
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
11.2
12.8
9.8
3.0
3.8
2.2
23.6
23.0
24.2
vs Weaker (42)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.0
2.3
3.6
20.8
20.7
20.9
% over line
64%
64%
64%
40%
36%
44%
48%
44%
52%
% under line
36%
36%
36%
60%
64%
56%
52%
56%
48%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fortuna Sittard
11.6
Sparta Rotterdam
11.6
PEC Zwolle
11.3
Ajax
11.1
Vitesse
11.0
Feyenoord
10.9
AZ Alkmaar
10.8
Den Haag
10.7
Heracles
10.3
PSV Eindhoven
10.1
VVV Venlo
10.1
Emmen
10.0
Twente
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Waalwijk
9.9
Utrecht
9.9
Willem II
9.6
Groningen
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Waalwijk
4.1
Vitesse
4.0
Twente
3.9
Fortuna Sittard
3.9
Heracles
3.7
Willem II
3.6
Emmen
3.6
Den Haag
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Groningen
3.4
Utrecht
3.3
AZ Alkmaar
3.2
Sparta Rotterdam
3.1
VVV Venlo
3.1
Ajax
3.0
Feyenoord
2.7
Heerenveen
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Twente
24.7
Heracles
24.3
Emmen
24.3
Sparta Rotterdam
23.9
Willem II
23.4
VVV Venlo
23.4
Fortuna Sittard
23.3
Vitesse
23.0
Den Haag
23.0
Utrecht
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.3
Groningen
22.2
Waalwijk
21.9
AZ Alkmaar
21.7
Heerenveen
21.5
Ajax
21.2
PSV Eindhoven
21.2
Feyenoord
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.8%
Under 9.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
39.7%
Under 21.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
0.87
0.53
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.54
1.00
0.62
0.91
0.45
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.40
1.47
0.27
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.00
2.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.31
0.46
1.31
0.31
1.31
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
1.40
0.20
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.08
0.42
1.46
0.23
0.64
0.64
Clean sheet %
77% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.53
2.27
0.47
1.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.19
0.50
2.46
0.46
1.92
0.54
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Ajax · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davy Klaassen57%
Tolu Arokodare50%
Julian Brandt43%
Mika Godts33%
Kasper Dolberg25%
Owen Wijndal25%
Marcos Leonardo25%
Anton Gaaei25%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Baas17%
Steven Berghuis14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Caio Henrique0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Rosa40%
Youri Regeer29%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Aaron Bouwman25%
Davy Klaassen14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Marcos Leonardo12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Steven Berghuis0%
Maarten Paes0%
Tolu Arokodare0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Baas0%
Oscar Gloukh0%
Mika Godts0%
Dies Janse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mika Godts67%
Steven Berghuis43%
Tolu Arokodare33%
Caio Henrique29%
Lucas Rosa20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Regeer14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Youri Baas0%
Anton Gaaei0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika Godts67%
Kasper Dolberg50%
Steven Berghuis43%
Marcos Leonardo38%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Tolu Arokodare17%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Regeer0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Abdellah Ouazane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €37m less valuable than Ajax's (€136m vs €173m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €34m less valuable than Ajax's (€61m vs €95m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EMM (7)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €6m more valuable than Ajax's (€21m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €10m less valuable than Ajax's (€54m vs €63m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
Utrecht
Vitesse
Heracles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Emmen
VVV Venlo
Twente
PEC Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard
Waalwijk