AZ Alkmaar’s recent form shows a solid 3-game winning streak, while Ajax has been unbeaten in five outings, both teams having faced opponents of similar strength. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.1 goals and a 22% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 7.8% probability. Home victory stands at 35%, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 43%, making the away win the favoured result. AZ averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded at home, whereas Ajax concedes 3.67 and scores only 1.0 on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (94.5%), Over 1.5 (92.0%), Under 6.5 (88.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (missed), Home under 3.5 goals (missed), Home over 0.5 goals (85.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (83.1%), and Under 5.5 cards (81.9%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ajax, failed to deliver, as AZ Alkmaar stunned the visitors with a 6-0 home win, extending their three-game winning streak. The model had predicted an away win with a 43% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 94.5%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 92.0%, Under 6.5 goals hit at 88.3%, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 85.3%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 83.1% and Under 5.5 cards hit at 81.9%. The remaining picks missed: Away over 0.5 goals at 88.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.2%. The match produced six goals, far above the expected total of 4.1 and the most likely 6+ outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AZ Alkmaar win✓ Hit
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ajax win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.37
2.43
1.14
1.62
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.43
1.14
3.00
1.25
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.91
1.27
2.33
0.67
1.62
1.69
Clean sheet %
40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.80
1.20
1.20
2.27
2.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
2.50
0.40
1.80
1.00
3.67
vs Weaker (22)
2.14
1.55
1.60
0.90
2.58
2.08
Clean sheet %
17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.0%
Under 1.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.0%
Under 2.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.7%
Under 3.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
76.0%
No
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
7.3%
2-1
6.8%
1-3
5.4%
2-3
5.2%
3-2
4.6%
3-1
4.3%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
3.0%
4.0%
2.8%
1.5%
1
2.6%
7.8%
7.6%
5.4%
2.9%
2
3.2%
6.8%
7.3%
5.2%
2.8%
3
2.0%
4.3%
4.6%
3.3%
1.8%
4
1.0%
2.1%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Ajax goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heracles
2.60
Noordwijk
2.50
Rijnsburgse Boys
2.25
Sparta Nijkerk
2.25
Barendrecht
2.25
Eemdijk
2.25
Quick Boys
2.25
ASWH
2.25
Utrecht
2.25
PSV Eindhoven
2.25
GO Ahead Eagles
2.20
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
De Graafschap
2.00
Blauw Geel
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
Hercules
2.00
Koninklijke HFC
2.00
SC Genemuiden
2.00
Dovo
2.00
AFC Amsterdam
2.00
Capelle
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Heerenveen
2.00
Sparta Rotterdam
2.00
Excelsior
2.00
Waalwijk
2.00
Ijsselmeervogels
2.00
Willem II
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Katwijk
1.50
Telstar
1.50
Cambuur
1.50
Sportlust '46
1.50
Hoek
1.50
Groningen
1.50
UDI '19
1.50
Poortugaal
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.50
Fortuna Sittard
1.50
TEC
1.50
Gemert
1.50
Excelsior Maassluis
1.50
Twente
1.50
ADO '20
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Juliana '31
1.50
Ajax
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
MVV
1.50
FC Lisse
1.33
Hoogeveen
1.00
Walcheren
1.00
Dongen
1.00
ARC
1.00
Groene Ster
1.00
Halsteren
1.00
Velocitas
1.00
Sportclub 25
1.00
't Zand
1.00
Westlandia
1.00
Erp
1.00
AWC
1.00
VV Scherpenzeel
1.00
HZVV
1.00
Staphorst
1.00
Roosendaal
1.00
Zwaluwen
1.00
DVO
1.00
Heino
1.00
VVOG
1.00
Kampong
1.00
Aalsmeer
1.00
De Foresters
1.00
Mierlo-Hout
1.00
Olde Veste '54
0.50
Almere City FC
0.00
Emmen
0.00
De Treffers
0.00
Harkemase Boys
0.00
Spakenburg
0.00
GOES
0.00
Kozakken Boys
0.00
URK
0.00
Hsc 21
0.00
ADO Den Haag
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
RKAV Volendam
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
ACV
0.00
TOGB
0.00
SVV Scheveningen
0.00
Dordrecht
0.00
Den Bosch
0.00
FC OSS
0.00
Roda
0.00
Huizen
0.00
VVV Venlo
0.00
PEC Zwolle
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
Kloetinge
0.00
HHC
0.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
0.00
UNA
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
NAC Breda
0.00
SteDoCo
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
Vitesse
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.70 points better than Ajax in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
4.00
FC Eindhoven
4.00
Sparta Nijkerk
3.75
Sparta Rotterdam
3.50
Ijsselmeervogels
3.33
Katwijk
3.00
Barendrecht
3.00
Groningen
3.00
Excelsior
3.00
PEC Zwolle
3.00
Utrecht
3.00
De Graafschap
2.67
Blauw Geel
2.67
Hercules
2.67
Waalwijk
2.67
FC Volendam
2.50
Quick Boys
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Fortuna Sittard
2.50
Juliana '31
2.50
Capelle
2.33
Eemdijk
2.25
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
Willem II
2.00
Spakenburg
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
GOES
2.00
Noordwijk
2.00
URK
2.00
AFC Amsterdam
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Sportlust '46
2.00
RKAV Volendam
2.00
ACV
2.00
Heerenveen
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
NEC Nijmegen
2.00
TEC
2.00
Gemert
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Twente
2.00
GO Ahead Eagles
2.00
SteDoCo
2.00
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.75
Heracles
1.60
Hoogeveen
1.55
Walcheren
1.55
Dongen
1.55
ARC
1.55
Groene Ster
1.55
Halsteren
1.55
Velocitas
1.55
Sportclub 25
1.55
't Zand
1.55
Westlandia
1.55
Erp
1.55
AWC
1.55
VV Scherpenzeel
1.55
HZVV
1.55
Staphorst
1.55
Roosendaal
1.55
Zwaluwen
1.55
DVO
1.55
Heino
1.55
VVOG
1.55
Kampong
1.55
Aalsmeer
1.55
De Foresters
1.55
Mierlo-Hout
1.55
Telstar
1.50
ASWH
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
MVV
1.50
Koninklijke HFC
1.33
SC Genemuiden
1.33
Dovo
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
De Treffers
1.00
Harkemase Boys
1.00
Kozakken Boys
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
ADO Den Haag
1.00
Hoek
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
Dordrecht
1.00
Den Bosch
1.00
FC OSS
1.00
Roda
1.00
Huizen
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Kloetinge
1.00
ADO '20
1.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.00
UNA
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
Ajax
1.00
NAC Breda
1.00
Vitesse
1.00
Almere City FC
0.00
Emmen
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
TOGB
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
HHC
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 1.20 goals better than Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heracles
0.40
Sportlust '46
0.50
ASWH
0.50
ADO '20
0.50
Barendrecht
0.75
Noordwijk
0.83
Emmen
1.00
De Graafschap
1.00
Telstar
1.00
SC Genemuiden
1.00
Hollandia
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
Gemert
1.00
HHC
1.00
Utrecht
1.00
Meerssen
1.00
GO Ahead Eagles
1.00
Ajax
1.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.00
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.25
Feyenoord
1.33
Waalwijk
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
FC Volendam
1.50
Quick Boys
1.50
Hoek
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Olde Veste '54
1.50
PSV Eindhoven
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
MVV
1.50
Heerenveen
1.67
Sparta Nijkerk
1.75
Willem II
2.00
Harkemase Boys
2.00
Blauw Geel
2.00
Dovo
2.00
Kozakken Boys
2.00
Capelle
2.00
Groningen
2.00
SVV Scheveningen
2.00
Dordrecht
2.00
Den Bosch
2.00
Huizen
2.00
VVV Venlo
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
NEC Nijmegen
2.00
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Kloetinge
2.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
2.00
Juliana '31
2.00
NAC Breda
2.00
Hoogeveen
2.15
Walcheren
2.15
Dongen
2.15
ARC
2.15
Groene Ster
2.15
Halsteren
2.15
Velocitas
2.15
Sportclub 25
2.15
't Zand
2.15
Westlandia
2.15
Erp
2.15
AWC
2.15
VV Scherpenzeel
2.15
HZVV
2.15
Staphorst
2.15
Roosendaal
2.15
Zwaluwen
2.15
DVO
2.15
Heino
2.15
VVOG
2.15
Kampong
2.15
Aalsmeer
2.15
De Foresters
2.15
Mierlo-Hout
2.15
Excelsior
2.33
Ijsselmeervogels
2.33
Katwijk
2.50
Eemdijk
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Twente
2.50
Rijnvogels
2.67
Almere City FC
3.00
Koninklijke HFC
3.00
Hsc 21
3.00
AFC Amsterdam
3.00
GVVV Veenendaal
3.00
RKAV Volendam
3.00
Roda
3.00
TEC
3.00
SteDoCo
3.00
Helmond Sport
3.00
Vitesse
3.00
Hercules
3.33
De Treffers
4.00
Spakenburg
4.00
GOES
4.00
URK
4.00
ADO Den Haag
4.00
ROHDA Raalte
4.00
TOGB
4.00
FC OSS
4.00
PEC Zwolle
4.00
Excelsior '31
4.00
UNA
4.00
ACV
5.00
AZ Alkmaar and Ajax are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
GO Ahead Eagles
54%
AZ Alkmaar
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
For 5.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.8
4.3
4.2
4.3
22.4
22.5
22.2
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (13)
9.1
9.9
8.2
4.7
5.3
4.0
24.2
23.0
25.5
vs Weaker (36)
10.5
10.6
10.4
4.1
3.8
4.4
21.8
22.5
21.2
% over line
53%
60%
46%
60%
60%
60%
49%
52%
46%
% under line
47%
40%
54%
40%
40%
40%
51%
48%
54%
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.3
9.1
3.7
3.9
3.5
22.8
24.5
21.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
10.2
10.4
9.8
4.5
5.2
3.5
25.9
26.4
24.8
vs Weaker (35)
9.5
10.2
8.9
3.3
3.1
3.5
21.6
23.3
20.3
% over line
47%
50%
44%
44%
46%
42%
57%
75%
40%
% under line
53%
50%
56%
56%
54%
58%
43%
25%
60%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gemert
16.0
Sparta Nijkerk
14.0
Quick Boys
12.0
Excelsior Maassluis
12.0
Den Bosch
11.6
Dordrecht
11.4
De Graafschap
11.2
VVV Venlo
11.2
Waalwijk
11.2
SC Genemuiden
11.0
FC OSS
11.0
Willem II
10.8
GO Ahead Eagles
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Almere City FC
10.7
PSV Eindhoven
10.6
Helmond Sport
10.5
Telstar
10.4
Heracles
10.4
FC Volendam
10.4
MVV
10.4
Fortuna Sittard
10.4
NEC Nijmegen
10.2
Vitesse
10.2
Roda
10.1
AZ Alkmaar
10.0
ADO Den Haag
9.9
Emmen
9.9
Feyenoord
9.9
FC Eindhoven
9.9
Heerenveen
9.8
Excelsior
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.6
NAC Breda
9.6
Katwijk
9.5
Groningen
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
Twente
9.4
Cambuur
9.3
Hoek
9.0
AFC Amsterdam
9.0
Hoogeveen
9.0
GVVV Veenendaal
9.0
De Treffers
8.5
Spakenburg
8.0
HHC
8.0
Hsc 21
7.0
Sportlust '46
7.0
Rijnsburgse Boys
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sportlust '46
11.0
De Treffers
9.5
Sparta Nijkerk
6.0
AFC Amsterdam
5.0
AZ Alkmaar
4.3
Vitesse
4.2
ADO Den Haag
4.2
Dordrecht
4.1
Twente
4.1
FC OSS
4.1
Gemert
4.0
Hoek
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Excelsior Maassluis
4.0
Spakenburg
4.0
Hsc 21
4.0
HHC
4.0
Rijnsburgse Boys
4.0
Ajax
4.0
Fortuna Sittard
3.9
Cambuur
3.8
Utrecht
3.8
Groningen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Heracles
3.7
Emmen
3.7
Excelsior
3.6
PEC Zwolle
3.6
Helmond Sport
3.6
Feyenoord
3.6
Sparta Rotterdam
3.6
FC Volendam
3.5
De Graafschap
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
Roda
3.4
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Telstar
3.3
FC Eindhoven
3.2
Heerenveen
3.2
Almere City FC
3.2
MVV
3.2
Willem II
3.0
Katwijk
3.0
Quick Boys
3.0
GVVV Veenendaal
3.0
Waalwijk
2.9
Hoogeveen
2.0
SC Genemuiden
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sportlust '46
33.0
Rijnsburgse Boys
32.0
FC OSS
29.4
De Treffers
28.0
Vitesse
27.2
Helmond Sport
27.0
Cambuur
26.9
ADO Den Haag
26.7
Dordrecht
26.2
Emmen
25.7
AFC Amsterdam
25.0
Roda
24.2
Telstar
24.1
Sparta Nijkerk
24.0
HHC
24.0
MVV
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.8
De Graafschap
23.6
NEC Nijmegen
23.4
Den Bosch
23.4
Heracles
23.2
Gemert
23.0
SC Genemuiden
23.0
Utrecht
23.0
FC Volendam
22.7
Ajax
22.7
Excelsior
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.4
AZ Alkmaar
22.2
FC Eindhoven
22.2
Heerenveen
22.0
NAC Breda
21.8
Twente
21.7
Feyenoord
21.3
Quick Boys
21.0
GVVV Veenendaal
21.0
Willem II
20.8
Waalwijk
20.8
Almere City FC
20.7
Groningen
20.6
Excelsior Maassluis
20.5
GO Ahead Eagles
19.4
Hoek
19.0
Sparta Rotterdam
18.8
PSV Eindhoven
18.7
Katwijk
17.0
Hsc 21
16.0
Hoogeveen
16.0
Spakenburg
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.2%
Under 3.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.2%
Under 21.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AZ Alkmaar or Draw✓ Hit
56.6%
Avg Implied -
35%
22%
43%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar or Ajax✓ Hit
78.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
22%
43%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ajax✗ Miss
65.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
22%
43%
covers Draw + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.3%
Under
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
88.2%
Under
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AZ Alkmaar, so a minus line means AZ Alkmaar give that many goals of a start and Ajax receive them. At -1, AZ Alkmaar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AZ Alkmaar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -2
8.3%
Draw -2
10.5%
Ajax +2
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -1
18.7%
Draw -1
16.0%
Ajax +1
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +1
56.6%
Draw +1
18.0%
Ajax -1
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +2
74.6%
Draw +2
13.1%
Ajax -2
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
1.64
0.50
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.43
1.75
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.64
1.67
0.33
0.46
0.85
Clean sheet %
53% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.60
0.40
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
1.50
0.20
0.80
0.67
2.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.55
0.80
0.20
1.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.79
0.64
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.71
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.64
0.67
0.33
1.15
0.85
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
0.60
0.80
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
1.00
0.80
0.70
1.42
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (50)
€323m
AJA (62)
€260m
FEY (32)
€216m
AA (60)
€205m
UTR (51)
€88m
TWE (27)
€84m
NN (28)
€62m
HEE (23)
€49m
GAE (31)
€36m
SR (26)
€32m
GRO (23)
€32m
PZ (29)
€23m
FS (28)
€22m
EXC (28)
€19m
FV (32)
€14m
WI (26)
€14m
HER (34)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
CAM (26)
€12m
TEL (24)
€12m
NB (26)
€11m
ADH (25)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €55m less valuable than Ajax's (€205m vs €260m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (19)
€139m
AJA (24)
€119m
AA (22)
€100m
FEY (13)
€78m
UTR (19)
€30m
NN (13)
€27m
TWE (10)
€26m
HEE (10)
€22m
GAE (12)
€17m
SR (9)
€13m
GRO (8)
€11m
WI (12)
€9m
PZ (12)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (7)
€7m
HER (14)
€7m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
ADH (12)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
CAM (10)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
TEL (8)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €19m less valuable than Ajax's (€100m vs €119m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (10)
€77m
AJA (13)
€53m
FEY (4)
€51m
AA (12)
€43m
NN (6)
€26m
UTR (10)
€24m
TWE (4)
€13m
GRO (3)
€9m
HEE (3)
€6m
FS (7)
€6m
GAE (6)
€6m
TEL (7)
€5m
PZ (6)
€5m
FV (7)
€3m
HER (6)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
SR (4)
€2m
ADH (3)
€2m
NB (4)
€2m
EXC (4)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
CAM (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
WI (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €10m less valuable than Ajax's (€43m vs €53m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (21)
€108m
FEY (15)
€87m
AJA (25)
€87m
AA (26)
€62m
TWE (13)
€45m
UTR (22)
€34m
HEE (10)
€20m
SR (13)
€16m
GAE (13)
€14m
GRO (12)
€11m
PZ (11)
€9m
NN (9)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (14)
€8m
FV (13)
€7m
CAM (11)
€6m
DOR (14)
€6m
NB (12)
€5m
HER (14)
€4m
ADH (10)
€4m
WI (11)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
TEL (9)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €26m less valuable than Ajax's (€62m vs €87m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Utrecht
Heerenveen
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Telstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
Heracles