This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.77
1.40
1.60
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.42
1.57
1.57
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (18)
1.28
2.00
1.25
1.62
1.30
2.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
5.1%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.4%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
1
7.4%
10%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.3%
7.0%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.4%
3.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Ajax
2.32
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Feyenoord
1.94
Utrecht
1.59
Vitesse
1.44
Den Haag
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heracles
1.24
Excelsior
1.18
Groningen
1.12
Willem II
1.09
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Roda
0.88
Sparta Rotterdam
0.79
Twente
0.71
AZ Alkmaar is 0.91 points better than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.62
PSV Eindhoven
2.56
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
2.12
Vitesse
1.85
Utrecht
1.71
Heracles
1.47
Groningen
1.47
Willem II
1.47
Heerenveen
1.41
Den Haag
1.32
Roda
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.24
Excelsior
1.21
NAC Breda
1.21
Twente
1.09
VVV Venlo
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.91 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (2.12 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.97
AZ Alkmaar
1.12
Feyenoord
1.15
PSV Eindhoven
1.15
Vitesse
1.38
Groningen
1.47
Utrecht
1.56
Den Haag
1.56
Heerenveen
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
VVV Venlo
1.59
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.85
Twente
1.85
Heracles
1.88
Roda
2.03
Sparta Rotterdam
2.21
AZ Alkmaar is 0.53 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 7.4 · Against 7.0 · Total 14.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
For 3.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 10.6 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
14.4
14.0
14.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
24.6
28.0
22.3
vs Stronger (4)
17.0
-
17.0
0.8
0.0
1.5
26.0
-
26.0
vs Similar (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (38)
13.8
14.0
13.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
24.2
28.0
20.5
% over line
100%
100%
100%
4%
4%
4%
80%
100%
67%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
96%
96%
96%
20%
0%
33%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.0
8.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
25.0
26.0
23.5
vs Stronger (21)
9.0
9.0
-
0.1
0.3
0.0
33.0
33.0
-
vs Similar (29)
8.5
9.0
8.0
0.4
0.2
0.8
23.0
22.5
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
20%
33%
0%
4%
0%
8%
60%
67%
50%
% under line
80%
67%
100%
96%
100%
92%
40%
33%
50%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AZ Alkmaar
14.4
PSV Eindhoven
12.8
Sparta Rotterdam
12.2
Vitesse
11.8
NAC Breda
11.5
Heracles
11.3
Heerenveen
11.0
Roda
10.8
Ajax
10.8
Den Haag
10.7
Utrecht
10.6
Groningen
10.4
VVV Venlo
10.2
Feyenoord
10.2
PEC Zwolle
9.8
Twente
9.6
Excelsior
8.6
Willem II
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PEC Zwolle
4.8
Twente
4.6
Groningen
4.2
Heracles
4.2
Feyenoord
4.2
Sparta Rotterdam
4.0
PSV Eindhoven
4.0
Den Haag
4.0
VVV Venlo
3.8
Ajax
3.6
NAC Breda
3.5
Vitesse
3.4
AZ Alkmaar
3.2
Excelsior
3.2
Willem II
2.8
Utrecht
2.6
Heerenveen
2.5
Roda
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feyenoord
28.5
PSV Eindhoven
28.2
NAC Breda
27.5
Heracles
26.8
Den Haag
26.3
Heerenveen
25.3
Excelsior
25.0
Twente
24.8
AZ Alkmaar
24.6
Vitesse
24.6
Utrecht
24.6
Willem II
23.7
Ajax
23.6
Sparta Rotterdam
23.2
Groningen
22.8
Roda
21.8
PEC Zwolle
21.2
VVV Venlo
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.9%
Under 9.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.7%
Under 3.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.6%
Under 21.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.79
0.64
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.60
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.65
0.35
0.90
0.10
0.46
0.54
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.87
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.86
1.00
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.72
0.88
0.38
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.93
1.00
0.79
1.19
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
1.20
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.50
3.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.65
1.00
0.60
1.15
0.69
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.53
0.93
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.57
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (18)
0.39
1.28
0.38
1.25
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Excelsior · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €119m more valuable than Excelsior's (€136m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
VV (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €54m more valuable than Excelsior's (€61m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
NB (3)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €19m more valuable than Excelsior's (€21m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €47m more valuable than Excelsior's (€54m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Vitesse
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
NAC Breda
VVV Venlo
Roda
Sparta Rotterdam
Twente