This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.23
1.60
2.20
1.00
2.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
3.44
1.60
3.20
0.00
3.75
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.71
1.60
1.70
1.36
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.4%
Under 1.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.2%
Under 2.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.0%
Under 3.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.4%
2-0
8.4%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
7.0%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.3%
4-1
4.9%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
1
5.9%
8.2%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
2
8.4%
9.4%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
7.0%
7.8%
4.4%
1.6%
0.5%
4
4.4%
4.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.53
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Feyenoord
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Vitesse
1.56
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.41
Groningen
1.32
Den Haag
1.32
Willem II
1.29
VVV Venlo
1.21
Heerenveen
1.21
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Emmen
1.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Excelsior
0.97
De Graafschap
0.85
NAC Breda
0.68
AZ Alkmaar is 0.74 points better than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.50
PSV Eindhoven
2.88
Feyenoord
2.21
Vitesse
2.06
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Heerenveen
1.88
Heracles
1.79
Utrecht
1.76
Den Haag
1.71
Willem II
1.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
VVV Venlo
1.38
Excelsior
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Emmen
1.21
Groningen
1.15
De Graafschap
1.12
NAC Breda
0.85
AZ Alkmaar is 0.53 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
PSV Eindhoven
0.76
Ajax
0.94
Groningen
1.21
Feyenoord
1.21
AZ Alkmaar
1.26
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.68
Den Haag
1.85
VVV Venlo
1.85
Heracles
2.00
Willem II
2.12
Emmen
2.12
Heerenveen
2.15
NAC Breda
2.18
De Graafschap
2.21
Excelsior
2.32
Fortuna Sittard
2.35
AZ Alkmaar is 1.06 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 2.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.3 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
For 4.0 · Against 8.1 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.7
10.5
3.4
2.7
4.0
23.4
22.5
24.3
vs Stronger (2)
15.5
14.0
17.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
29.5
33.0
26.0
vs Similar (10)
10.3
10.5
10.2
3.2
2.6
3.8
27.2
27.5
27.0
vs Weaker (38)
11.1
11.8
10.3
3.4
2.6
4.2
22.2
20.9
23.5
% over line
61%
58%
64%
46%
40%
52%
59%
46%
72%
% under line
39%
42%
36%
54%
60%
48%
41%
54%
28%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
12.2
11.9
3.4
3.0
3.8
23.0
22.1
24.0
vs Stronger (16)
13.2
12.1
14.2
2.9
3.0
2.8
21.7
21.5
21.9
vs Similar (34)
11.5
12.2
10.8
3.6
2.9
4.2
23.7
22.4
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
68%
62%
46%
32%
60%
65%
60%
71%
% under line
35%
32%
38%
54%
68%
40%
35%
40%
29%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Excelsior
12.0
Ajax
11.2
Heracles
11.2
AZ Alkmaar
11.1
Den Haag
11.1
PSV Eindhoven
11.0
Feyenoord
11.0
Fortuna Sittard
10.9
NAC Breda
10.8
Emmen
10.6
Utrecht
10.6
VVV Venlo
10.3
PEC Zwolle
10.2
Vitesse
10.1
Willem II
9.7
Groningen
9.6
Heerenveen
9.4
De Graafschap
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
PEC Zwolle
4.0
Fortuna Sittard
3.9
De Graafschap
3.9
PSV Eindhoven
3.8
Ajax
3.8
Emmen
3.7
Groningen
3.7
NAC Breda
3.5
Den Haag
3.5
AZ Alkmaar
3.4
Excelsior
3.4
Utrecht
3.3
Willem II
3.3
Vitesse
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.2
Heerenveen
3.1
Heracles
3.0
Feyenoord
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heerenveen
25.4
Fortuna Sittard
24.9
De Graafschap
24.9
Emmen
24.6
Vitesse
24.3
Heracles
24.1
Utrecht
23.9
PEC Zwolle
23.8
Ajax
23.6
Den Haag
23.5
AZ Alkmaar
23.4
NAC Breda
23.4
PSV Eindhoven
23.3
Willem II
23.2
Groningen
23.1
Excelsior
23.0
Feyenoord
23.0
VVV Venlo
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.7%
Under 9.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.3%
Under 21.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
0.93
0.64
1.25
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.29
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.58
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.67
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.21
0.71
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.60
0.00
0.00
0.25
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.17
0.50
1.25
0.58
1.08
0.42
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.40
0.60
1.53
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.11
0.60
2.20
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.10
0.60
1.20
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Excelsior · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €119m more valuable than Excelsior's (€136m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
DG (8)
€2m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €54m more valuable than Excelsior's (€61m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €19m more valuable than Excelsior's (€21m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €47m more valuable than Excelsior's (€54m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Vitesse
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Emmen
Fortuna Sittard
De Graafschap
NAC Breda