This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.65
2.26
1.92
1.58
1.36
3.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (17)
2.00
2.29
2.62
1.38
1.44
3.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.6%
Under 1.5
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.1%
Under 2.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.5%
Under 3.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.1%
3-0
8.0%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
7.2%
4-1
6.8%
4-0
6.7%
1-1
4.8%
5-1
4.6%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Fortuna Sittard goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
1
3.8%
4.8%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
2
7.2%
7.3%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.0%
8.1%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
4
6.7%
6.8%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Fortuna Sittard goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.53
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Feyenoord
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Vitesse
1.56
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.41
Groningen
1.32
Den Haag
1.32
Willem II
1.29
VVV Venlo
1.21
Heerenveen
1.21
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Emmen
1.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Excelsior
0.97
De Graafschap
0.85
NAC Breda
0.68
AZ Alkmaar is 0.71 points better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.50
PSV Eindhoven
2.88
Feyenoord
2.21
Vitesse
2.06
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Heerenveen
1.88
Heracles
1.79
Utrecht
1.76
Den Haag
1.71
Willem II
1.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
VVV Venlo
1.38
Excelsior
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Emmen
1.21
Groningen
1.15
De Graafschap
1.12
NAC Breda
0.85
AZ Alkmaar is 0.41 goals better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
PSV Eindhoven
0.76
Ajax
0.94
Groningen
1.21
Feyenoord
1.21
AZ Alkmaar
1.26
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.68
Den Haag
1.85
VVV Venlo
1.85
Heracles
2.00
Willem II
2.12
Emmen
2.12
Heerenveen
2.15
NAC Breda
2.18
De Graafschap
2.21
Excelsior
2.32
Fortuna Sittard
2.35
AZ Alkmaar is 1.09 goals better than Fortuna Sittard in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 2.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 8.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
For 3.7 · Against 7.9 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.6
10.0
3.6
2.8
4.3
23.1
21.8
24.2
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
14.0
12.0
7.0
5.0
9.0
27.5
33.0
22.0
vs Similar (9)
10.6
11.0
10.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
27.2
27.5
27.0
vs Weaker (39)
10.7
11.6
9.8
3.4
2.4
4.2
21.9
20.0
23.6
% over line
60%
58%
62%
46%
38%
54%
56%
38%
73%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
54%
62%
46%
44%
62%
27%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (23)
11.3
11.5
11.1
4.2
3.9
4.5
25.0
24.2
25.7
vs Stronger (6)
12.8
12.0
14.5
3.7
3.5
4.0
25.7
26.0
25.0
vs Similar (17)
10.8
11.2
10.3
4.4
4.1
4.6
24.7
23.4
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
83%
45%
70%
67%
73%
83%
83%
82%
% under line
35%
17%
55%
30%
33%
27%
17%
17%
18%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Excelsior
12.1
Ajax
11.4
Fortuna Sittard
11.3
Feyenoord
11.2
Den Haag
11.2
Heracles
11.1
PSV Eindhoven
11.0
Utrecht
10.8
AZ Alkmaar
10.8
NAC Breda
10.8
VVV Venlo
10.5
PEC Zwolle
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Vitesse
10.3
Willem II
10.2
Groningen
9.7
De Graafschap
9.7
Heerenveen
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Sittard
4.2
PSV Eindhoven
3.9
PEC Zwolle
3.9
AZ Alkmaar
3.6
Vitesse
3.4
De Graafschap
3.4
Groningen
3.4
NAC Breda
3.4
Ajax
3.4
Utrecht
3.3
Willem II
3.3
Emmen
3.3
Den Haag
3.2
Excelsior
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.2
Heracles
3.1
Heerenveen
3.1
Feyenoord
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fortuna Sittard
25.0
Heerenveen
24.5
Emmen
24.1
Heracles
23.8
PEC Zwolle
23.8
Vitesse
23.7
De Graafschap
23.5
Utrecht
23.2
Willem II
23.2
AZ Alkmaar
23.1
Ajax
23.0
VVV Venlo
22.9
PSV Eindhoven
22.7
Groningen
22.6
NAC Breda
22.5
Den Haag
22.5
Excelsior
22.2
Feyenoord
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
70.1%
Under 9.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.1%
Under 21.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.20
0.53
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
1.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.26
0.57
1.25
0.58
1.27
0.55
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.83
0.50
0.27
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.76
1.00
1.25
0.50
0.33
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.40
0.60
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.39
1.50
0.50
1.18
0.27
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.09
1.39
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.29
1.38
0.88
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
26% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Fortuna Sittard · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €119m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€136m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
DG (8)
€2m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €55m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€61m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €17m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€21m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €47m more valuable than Fortuna Sittard's (€54m vs €7m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Vitesse
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Emmen
Excelsior
De Graafschap
NAC Breda