AZ Alkmaar’s recent four-game winning streak and a 5-2 triumph over GO Ahead Eagles suggest a potent attack, while Groningen’s away form of two defeats followed by two wins and a loss, with a 2-3 loss to Fortuna Sittard, points to defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win. The expected total of 3.3 goals aligns with a most likely total of three, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% chance. AZ Alkmaar, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.36 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Groningen, away against a stronger side, averages 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 85.6% probability.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw stunned fans, as the pre-match favourite, AZ Alkmaar, was expected to win with a 47% probability. The model’s call was wrong. The game finished level, extending AZ’s four-game winning run but leaving the home side unable to convert that form into a victory. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed its 85.6% chance, reflecting the low-scoring outcome. With a 24% chance of a draw, the result was within the model’s range, yet the anticipated home win did not materialise. Groningen’s defensive performance held, and the match ended in a stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AZ Alkmaar win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Groningen win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.43
2.14
1.50
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
1.80
2.60
1.00
3.00
2.33
2.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.96
1.09
2.36
1.00
1.58
1.17
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.40
1.25
1.44
1.50
1.36
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
1.75
1.25
2.25
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.29
1.18
1.18
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.9%
Under 3.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
1-0
5.7%
0-0 ✓
4.5%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Groningen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.2%
3.8%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.7%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Groningen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Feyenoord
2.41
Ajax
2.38
PSV Eindhoven
2.24
Utrecht
1.82
Vitesse
1.50
AZ Alkmaar
1.44
Twente
1.32
Heracles
1.26
Groningen
1.26
Heerenveen
1.26
Den Haag
1.12
Excelsior
1.09
Willem II
1.06
PEC Zwolle
1.03
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Roda
0.97
GO Ahead Eagles
0.68
AZ Alkmaar is 0.18 points better than Groningen in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Feyenoord
2.53
Ajax
2.32
PSV Eindhoven
2.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.65
Groningen
1.62
Utrecht
1.59
Heerenveen
1.59
Heracles
1.56
Vitesse
1.50
Twente
1.41
Excelsior
1.26
Sparta Rotterdam
1.24
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Den Haag
1.09
GO Ahead Eagles
0.94
NEC Nijmegen
0.94
Willem II
0.85
Roda
0.76
AZ Alkmaar is 0.03 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.68
PSV Eindhoven
0.68
Feyenoord
0.74
Utrecht
1.12
Vitesse
1.18
Willem II
1.29
Twente
1.47
Roda
1.50
Groningen
1.50
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.56
Heracles
1.62
Den Haag
1.74
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Excelsior
1.76
Sparta Rotterdam
1.79
PEC Zwolle
1.97
GO Ahead Eagles
2.15
AZ Alkmaar is 0.03 goals worse than Groningen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Groningen
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (38)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.14
0.64
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
0.87
0.48
1.27
0.27
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.57
0.36
0.55
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.00
0.86
1.06
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.60
0.50
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.61
1.09
0.73
1.08
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.69
0.81
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.25
1.50
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.71
0.82
0.64
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Groningen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson75%
Thom van Bergen50%
David van der Werff50%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ondrejka33%
Márk Csinger33%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Travis Hernes25%
David van der Werff25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Thom van Bergen0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thom van Bergen50%
Etienne Vaessen25%
Jorg Schreuders25%
Tygo Land25%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thom van Bergen75%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson25%
Tika de Jonge25%
David van der Werff25%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Pelle Clement0%
Jacob Ondrejka0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Márk Csinger0%
Travis Hernes0%
Jorg Schreuders0%
Tygo Land0%
Wouter Prins0%
Elvis Van der Laan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €104m more valuable than Groningen's (€136m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €49m more valuable than Groningen's (€61m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €16m more valuable than Groningen's (€21m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €39m more valuable than Groningen's (€54m vs €14m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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Feyenoord
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
Vitesse
Twente
Heerenveen
Heracles
Excelsior
Willem II
PEC Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam
NEC Nijmegen
Roda
GO Ahead Eagles