This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.17
1.57
0.57
1.56
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.20
0.67
1.00
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.16
1.89
0.56
1.40
1.70
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.33
1.50
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.5%
1-1
12.2%
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
9.0%
3-0
6.7%
3-1 ✓
5.5%
0-1
5.4%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Groningen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
5.4%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.6%
1.2%
0.3%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Groningen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barendrecht
2.50
Heerenveen
2.33
Excelsior
2.33
SC Genemuiden
2.33
Utrecht
2.25
Rijnsburgse Boys
2.25
ASWH
2.25
Heracles
2.20
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
GO Ahead Eagles
2.20
Noordwijk
2.17
Feyenoord
2.00
Waalwijk
2.00
De Graafschap
2.00
Ijsselmeervogels
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
Winterswijk
2.00
Koninklijke HFC
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Achilles Veen
2.00
Quick '20
2.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.75
Quick Boys
1.75
Sparta Nijkerk
1.75
Eemdijk
1.75
Hercules
1.67
Blauw Geel
1.67
Ajax
1.50
Groningen
1.50
Twente
1.50
Cambuur
1.50
Telstar
1.50
Fortuna Sittard
1.50
MVV
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
TEC
1.50
Gemert
1.50
Sportlust '46
1.50
ADO '20
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
RKAVV
1.50
UDI '19
1.50
HV & CV Quick
1.50
Ajax Amateurs
1.50
Poortugaal
1.50
Kolping Boys
1.33
Dovo
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
AFC Amsterdam
1.33
Capelle
1.33
OJC Rosmalen
1.33
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
PEC Zwolle
1.00
Spakenburg
1.00
RKAV Volendam
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
Elinkwijk
1.00
EVV
1.00
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
SDC Putten
1.00
Smitshoek
1.00
HBC
1.00
De Bilt
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
Geldrop
1.00
Willem II
0.50
Katwijk
0.50
Hoek
0.50
Zwaluw VFC
0.50
Juliana '31
0.50
Roda
0.00
Vitesse
0.00
NAC Breda
0.00
VVV Venlo
0.00
ADO Den Haag
0.00
Emmen
0.00
Dordrecht
0.00
FC OSS
0.00
Den Bosch
0.00
Almere City FC
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
De Treffers
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
Harkemase Boys
0.00
GOES
0.00
Kozakken Boys
0.00
HHC
0.00
URK
0.00
Kloetinge
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
Heerjansdam
0.00
FC 's-Gravenzande
0.00
ACV
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
TOGB
0.00
Forum Sport
0.00
Huizen
0.00
SteDoCo
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
Laar
0.00
SVBO
0.00
DAW Schaijk
0.00
Blauw Wit '34
0.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
0.00
UNA
0.00
ONS Sneek
0.00
DEM
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.70 points better than Groningen in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Eindhoven
4.00
PSV Eindhoven
3.50
Ijsselmeervogels
3.33
Sparta Nijkerk
3.25
Utrecht
3.00
Groningen
3.00
Barendrecht
3.00
Excelsior
2.67
Waalwijk
2.67
De Graafschap
2.67
Cambuur
2.50
Fortuna Sittard
2.50
FC Volendam
2.50
Hercules
2.33
Blauw Geel
2.33
Quick Boys
2.25
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
Feyenoord
2.00
Heerenveen
2.00
Twente
2.00
GO Ahead Eagles
2.00
PEC Zwolle
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
Katwijk
2.00
GOES
2.00
TEC
2.00
URK
2.00
Spakenburg
2.00
RKAV Volendam
2.00
Gemert
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Sportlust '46
2.00
ACV
2.00
Achilles Veen
2.00
SteDoCo
2.00
HBC
2.00
De Bilt
2.00
HV & CV Quick
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
Geldrop
2.00
Noordwijk
1.83
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.75
Eemdijk
1.75
Kolping Boys
1.67
Capelle
1.67
Willem II
1.50
Telstar
1.50
MVV
1.50
ASWH
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Ajax Amateurs
1.50
Juliana '31
1.50
Heracles
1.40
SC Genemuiden
1.33
Winterswijk
1.33
Koninklijke HFC
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
AFC Amsterdam
1.33
Quick '20
1.33
OJC Rosmalen
1.33
Roda
1.00
Ajax
1.00
Vitesse
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
NAC Breda
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
ADO Den Haag
1.00
Dordrecht
1.00
FC OSS
1.00
Den Bosch
1.00
De Treffers
1.00
Dovo
1.00
Harkemase Boys
1.00
Kozakken Boys
1.00
Kloetinge
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
ADO '20
1.00
Elinkwijk
1.00
Heerjansdam
1.00
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
SDC Putten
1.00
Huizen
1.00
Smitshoek
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
SVBO
1.00
RKAVV
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.00
UNA
1.00
ONS Sneek
1.00
DEM
1.00
Hoek
0.50
Zwaluw VFC
0.50
Emmen
0.00
Almere City FC
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
HHC
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
EVV
0.00
FC 's-Gravenzande
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
TOGB
0.00
Forum Sport
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
Laar
0.00
DAW Schaijk
0.00
Blauw Wit '34
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.80 goals worse than Groningen in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
EVV
0.00
Winterswijk
0.33
Heracles
0.40
Barendrecht
0.50
ASWH
0.50
Sportlust '46
0.50
ADO '20
0.50
RKAVV
0.50
SC Genemuiden
0.67
Noordwijk
0.83
Utrecht
1.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.00
Ajax
1.00
GO Ahead Eagles
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Telstar
1.00
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
Emmen
1.00
De Graafschap
1.00
HHC
1.00
Gemert
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
Elinkwijk
1.00
Hollandia
1.00
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
SDC Putten
1.00
Meerssen
1.00
Smitshoek
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.25
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.25
Feyenoord
1.33
Heerenveen
1.33
Waalwijk
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
Blauw Geel
1.33
Quick '20
1.33
OJC Rosmalen
1.33
MVV
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
Quick Boys
1.50
Hoek
1.50
Excelsior Maassluis
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Achilles Veen
1.50
Ajax Amateurs
1.50
Excelsior
1.67
Hercules
1.67
Sparta Nijkerk
1.75
Willem II
2.00
Groningen
2.00
NAC Breda
2.00
VVV Venlo
2.00
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
PEC Zwolle
2.00
Dordrecht
2.00
Den Bosch
2.00
Dovo
2.00
Harkemase Boys
2.00
Kozakken Boys
2.00
Spakenburg
2.00
Kloetinge
2.00
RKAV Volendam
2.00
Capelle
2.00
FC 's-Gravenzande
2.00
Forum Sport
2.00
Huizen
2.00
HBC
2.00
De Bilt
2.00
Zwaluw VFC
2.00
DAW Schaijk
2.00
Blauw Wit '34
2.00
HV & CV Quick
2.00
Juliana '31
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
2.00
Geldrop
2.00
DEM
2.00
Ijsselmeervogels
2.33
Twente
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Katwijk
2.50
Eemdijk
2.50
Rijnvogels
2.67
Kolping Boys
2.67
Roda
3.00
Vitesse
3.00
Almere City FC
3.00
Helmond Sport
3.00
Koninklijke HFC
3.00
AFC Amsterdam
3.00
TEC
3.00
GVVV Veenendaal
3.00
SteDoCo
3.00
SVBO
3.00
ONS Sneek
3.00
ADO Den Haag
4.00
FC OSS
4.00
De Treffers
4.00
Excelsior '31
4.00
GOES
4.00
URK
4.00
ROHDA Raalte
4.00
Heerjansdam
4.00
TOGB
4.00
UNA
4.00
ACV
5.00
Laar
6.00
AZ Alkmaar is 1.00 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
GO Ahead Eagles
54%
AZ Alkmaar
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 5.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Groningen
For 4.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.9
9.2
3.6
3.2
3.9
21.0
19.7
22.2
vs Stronger (3)
6.7
4.5
11.0
2.3
1.5
4.0
17.3
19.5
13.0
vs Similar (14)
8.8
8.7
8.9
3.5
4.4
2.6
22.4
22.1
22.7
vs Weaker (33)
10.1
11.2
9.2
3.7
2.8
4.4
20.8
18.6
22.6
% over line
46%
42%
50%
44%
33%
54%
56%
46%
65%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
56%
67%
46%
44%
54%
35%
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
9.8
3.5
3.8
3.3
21.5
21.4
21.6
vs Stronger (5)
10.4
9.3
12.0
4.0
5.0
2.5
20.6
26.0
12.5
vs Similar (30)
9.3
9.3
9.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.4
21.2
23.3
vs Weaker (15)
10.1
10.0
10.1
3.4
3.9
2.9
20.2
20.0
20.4
% over line
49%
54%
44%
50%
50%
50%
53%
54%
52%
% under line
51%
46%
56%
50%
50%
50%
47%
46%
48%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heracles
11.2
Vitesse
11.2
Sparta Rotterdam
11.1
FC Volendam
11.1
NEC Nijmegen
11.0
Waalwijk
11.0
Cambuur
10.9
Dordrecht
10.9
Feyenoord
10.8
PSV Eindhoven
10.6
Den Bosch
10.5
Utrecht
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.5
GO Ahead Eagles
10.4
PEC Zwolle
10.4
Emmen
10.3
Telstar
10.3
Willem II
10.3
Heerenveen
10.3
De Graafschap
10.3
Helmond Sport
10.1
Almere City FC
10.1
FC OSS
10.1
Excelsior
10.1
MVV
10.1
Fortuna Sittard
10.0
Twente
10.0
Roda
10.0
ADO Den Haag
9.9
Groningen
9.9
VVV Venlo
9.8
AZ Alkmaar
9.5
NAC Breda
9.3
Ajax
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ajax
4.1
Cambuur
4.1
ADO Den Haag
4.0
Excelsior
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Vitesse
3.9
Feyenoord
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Roda
3.9
Almere City FC
3.9
Groningen
3.8
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.8
Willem II
3.8
NEC Nijmegen
3.7
PEC Zwolle
3.7
Helmond Sport
3.7
Dordrecht
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.6
Telstar
3.6
FC OSS
3.6
Twente
3.6
FC Volendam
3.5
Heracles
3.5
De Graafschap
3.5
Waalwijk
3.3
Sparta Rotterdam
3.3
MVV
3.2
GO Ahead Eagles
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Telstar
24.8
Vitesse
24.2
Dordrecht
24.1
Emmen
23.9
ADO Den Haag
23.9
FC OSS
23.6
VVV Venlo
23.1
Cambuur
23.1
Helmond Sport
22.8
Almere City FC
22.5
Roda
22.3
Heracles
22.1
Den Bosch
21.8
Ajax
21.7
MVV
21.7
NAC Breda
21.5
Groningen
21.5
NEC Nijmegen
21.1
AZ Alkmaar
21.0
Utrecht
20.6
PEC Zwolle
20.6
Fortuna Sittard
20.6
FC Eindhoven
20.5
Feyenoord
20.5
Willem II
20.4
De Graafschap
20.3
Twente
20.3
Heerenveen
20.1
FC Volendam
19.7
GO Ahead Eagles
19.5
Waalwijk
19.0
Excelsior
18.7
Sparta Rotterdam
18.6
PSV Eindhoven
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.9%
Under 9.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.4%
Under 3.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.5%
Under 21.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AZ Alkmaar or Draw✓ Hit
83.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
26%
17%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar or Groningen✓ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
26%
17%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Groningen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Groningen✗ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied -
58%
26%
17%
covers Draw + Groningen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AZ Alkmaar, so a minus line means AZ Alkmaar give that many goals of a start and Groningen receive them. At -1, AZ Alkmaar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AZ Alkmaar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: Draw
AZ Alkmaar -2
14.9%
Draw -2
18.2%
Groningen +2
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -1
33.1%
Draw -1
24.6%
Groningen +1
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +1
83.5%
Draw +1
11.1%
Groningen -1
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +2
94.6%
Draw +2
4.1%
Groningen -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.40
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.63
0.56
0.78
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.86
0.29
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.47
1.11
0.22
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.67
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.56
1.00
1.20
0.25
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.37
2.11
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.71
0.29
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
0.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.68
0.78
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Troy Parrott36%
Mexx Meerdink30%
Sven Mijnans23%
Ibrahim Sadiq22%
Ruben van Bommel18%
Ro-Zangelo Daal14%
Jayden Addai13%
Mayckel Lahdo11%
Denso Kasius11%
Zico Buurmeester10%
Ernest Poku8%
Kees Smit7%
David Möller Wolfe6%
Mees de Wit5%
Wouter Goes5%
Seiya Maikuma5%
Kristijan Belić4%
Peer Koopmeiners4%
Jordy Clasie3%
Alexandre Penetra2%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Lequincio Zeefuik0%
Maxim Dekker0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lequincio Zeefuik33%
Dave Kwakman30%
Kristijan Belić29%
Wouter Goes29%
Ro-Zangelo Daal29%
Ruben van Bommel18%
David Möller Wolfe17%
Jordy Clasie16%
Mees de Wit15%
Sven Mijnans14%
Kees Smit13%
Peer Koopmeiners13%
Maxim Dekker11%
Alexandre Penetra11%
Ernest Poku10%
Seiya Maikuma9%
Bruno Martins Indi8%
Mexx Meerdink8%
Ibrahim Sadiq7%
Denso Kasius7%
Jayden Addai4%
Troy Parrott2%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Mayckel Lahdo0%
Zico Buurmeester0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben van Bommel15%
David Möller Wolfe15%
Sven Mijnans14%
Ernest Poku12%
Peer Koopmeiners11%
Ibrahim Sadiq11%
Jordy Clasie11%
Dave Kwakman10%
Wouter Goes10%
Troy Parrott9%
Zico Buurmeester7%
Seiya Maikuma7%
Kees Smit7%
Denso Kasius7%
Mees de Wit5%
Mayckel Lahdo3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Kristijan Belić0%
Alexandre Penetra0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Lequincio Zeefuik0%
Maxim Dekker0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Jayden Addai0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruben van Bommel27%
Sven Mijnans25%
Troy Parrott21%
Mexx Meerdink20%
Ibrahim Sadiq19%
Ernest Poku18%
Denso Kasius7%
Mayckel Lahdo6%
Jayden Addai4%
Peer Koopmeiners4%
Zico Buurmeester2%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Jordy Clasie0%
Mees de Wit0%
Kristijan Belić0%
Alexandre Penetra0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
David Möller Wolfe0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Lequincio Zeefuik0%
Maxim Dekker0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Groningen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Noam Emeran20%
Leandro Bacuna16%
Mats Seuntjens15%
Stije Resink15%
Jorg Schreuders15%
Thom van Bergen14%
Dave Kwakman13%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson10%
Romano Postema7%
Rui Mendes7%
Marco Rente6%
Luciano Valente6%
Tika de Jonge5%
Thijs Oosting4%
Wouter Prins4%
Thijmen Blokzijl3%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Hidde Jurjus0%
Johan Hove0%
Hjalmar Ekdal0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Finn Stam0%
David van der Werff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stije Resink27%
Marvin Peersman26%
Leandro Bacuna25%
Rui Mendes20%
Etienne Vaessen16%
Hjalmar Ekdal14%
Finn Stam14%
Luciano Valente12%
Thom van Bergen11%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson10%
Marco Rente10%
Tika de Jonge10%
Mats Seuntjens8%
Wouter Prins7%
Romano Postema7%
Jorg Schreuders6%
Thijmen Blokzijl3%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Hidde Jurjus0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Johan Hove0%
Noam Emeran0%
Dave Kwakman0%
David van der Werff0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luciano Valente22%
Mats Seuntjens15%
Stije Resink8%
Marvin Peersman7%
Joey Pelupessy7%
Rui Mendes7%
Leandro Bacuna6%
Tika de Jonge5%
Finn Stam5%
Wouter Prins4%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson3%
Jorg Schreuders3%
Thom van Bergen3%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Hidde Jurjus0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Johan Hove0%
Hjalmar Ekdal0%
Marco Rente0%
Romano Postema0%
Noam Emeran0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Dave Kwakman0%
David van der Werff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luciano Valente16%
Johan Hove14%
Leandro Bacuna12%
Stije Resink12%
Thom van Bergen9%
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson7%
Thijs Oosting4%
Romano Postema3%
Jorg Schreuders3%
Joey Pelupessy0%
Etienne Vaessen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Hidde Jurjus0%
Hjalmar Ekdal0%
Marco Rente0%
Marvin Peersman0%
Rui Mendes0%
Noam Emeran0%
Thijmen Blokzijl0%
Tika de Jonge0%
Finn Stam0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Wouter Prins0%
David van der Werff0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
TEL (21)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €104m more valuable than Groningen's (€136m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €49m more valuable than Groningen's (€61m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
TEL (4)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
ADH (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €16m more valuable than Groningen's (€21m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
TEL (10)
€3m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €39m more valuable than Groningen's (€54m vs €14m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Twente
GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles
NAC Breda
Willem II
Waalwijk
Almere City FC
Telstar
Dordrecht
Den Bosch
Cambuur
De Graafschap
ADO Den Haag