PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 72% probability of securing a home win. The model's confidence stems from NAC Breda's vulnerability on the road, where they tend to concede more goals than they score. This is reflected in their away form, where they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded against stronger opponents.
The expected total goals for this match is 3.2, indicating a high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favour of AZ Alkmaar, with a 11.6% probability. This is consistent with the home side's strong form at home, where they average 2.08 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 72% probability. Other suggested picks include Over 1.5, with an 84% probability, and Home win, with a 72% probability and a 3% edge. The probabilities for the match result are Home win (72%), Draw (18%), and Away win (10%).
AZ Alkmaar's unbeaten streak in their last 5 matches came to an end as they drew 3-3 against NAC Breda. The actual result was a draw, contradicting the final score. This result was a major upset, as the pre-match favourite, AZ Alkmaar, failed to come through, with the model's selection of Home win proving wrong. The model's prediction of Home win had a 72% probability of success, but it did not materialize.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 84%. The suggested pick of Home win missed, with the same probability of 72%.
AZ Alkmaar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.13 | 2.41 | 0.82 | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 2.29 | 1.14 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.82 | 1.09 | 2.31 | 0.77 | 1.11 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
NAC Breda| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.67 | 1.24 | 1.47 | 0.77 | 1.92 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.58 | 1.83 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 1.56 | 0.89 | 1.33 | 0.44 | 1.78 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| NAC Breda goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 5.6% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
AZ AlkmaarNAC BredaAZ Alkmaar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 10.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 11.0 |
| vs Similar (13) | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 23.9 | 24.4 | 23.3 |
| vs Weaker (35) | 10.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 22.4 | 22.0 | 22.8 |
| % over line | 56% | 58% | 54% | 50% | 54% | 46% | 56% | 54% | 58% |
| % under line | 44% | 42% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 54% | 44% | 46% | 42% |
NAC Breda| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 22.6 | 22.1 | 23.1 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 9.8 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 23.2 | 21.5 | 24.7 |
| vs Similar (28) | 9.8 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 21.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 58% | 42% | 44% | 54% | 33% | 58% | 54% | 62% |
| % under line | 50% | 42% | 58% | 56% | 46% | 67% | 42% | 46% | 38% |
AZ Alkmaar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 0.73 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+49pp vs league) | |||||
NAC Breda| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 0.94 | 0.31 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.11 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
AZ Alkmaar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.73 | 1.41 | 0.65 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 1.09 | 0.59 | 1.31 | 0.54 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
NAC Breda| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home win | 72.0% | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | - | +2.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 15/12/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/02/19 | A | 0-3 | |
| 12/08/18 | H | 5-0 | |
| 17/02/18 | A | 1-3 | |
| 10/09/17 | H | 2-1 |
AZ Alkmaar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 16/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 0-4 |
NAC Breda| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 |  Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 |  Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |