This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.10
2.20
2.53
0.60
1.67
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
2.91
1.33
3.33
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.67
2.75
2.12
0.60
1.30
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.51-8.6%
Under 2.5
45.8%
@ 2.55+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.9%
No
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.5%
1-0
11.7%
3-0
9.7%
1-1 ✓
9.5%
2-1
9.3%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
4-0
5.3%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
PEC Zwolle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
1
12%
9.5%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.7%
6.7%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
5.3%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = PEC Zwolle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.59
PSV Eindhoven
2.12
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Vitesse
1.79
Feyenoord
1.74
Utrecht
1.56
Groningen
1.47
Sparta Rotterdam
1.38
Heracles
1.29
Twente
1.21
Fortuna Sittard
1.21
Heerenveen
1.15
PEC Zwolle
1.12
Willem II
0.91
Waalwijk
0.88
Emmen
0.88
VVV Venlo
0.68
Den Haag
0.65
AZ Alkmaar is 0.97 points better than PEC Zwolle in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.00
AZ Alkmaar
2.21
PSV Eindhoven
2.18
Feyenoord
1.88
Vitesse
1.53
Utrecht
1.53
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
Sparta Rotterdam
1.44
Twente
1.41
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heerenveen
1.26
VVV Venlo
1.26
Heracles
1.24
Willem II
1.18
Groningen
1.18
Emmen
1.18
Waalwijk
0.97
Den Haag
0.85
AZ Alkmaar is 0.91 goals better than PEC Zwolle in terms of goals scored per game (2.21 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.68
PSV Eindhoven
1.03
Feyenoord
1.06
Groningen
1.09
Vitesse
1.12
AZ Alkmaar
1.21
Utrecht
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heerenveen
1.44
Twente
1.47
PEC Zwolle
1.56
Heracles
1.56
Waalwijk
1.62
Fortuna Sittard
1.71
Willem II
2.00
Emmen
2.00
Den Haag
2.24
VVV Venlo
2.68
AZ Alkmaar is 0.35 goals better than PEC Zwolle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PEC Zwolle
For 3.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.0
2.4
3.7
21.5
20.1
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
9.0
8.0
4.3
2.0
5.5
21.3
22.0
21.0
vs Similar (7)
9.6
10.7
8.8
2.7
3.0
2.5
24.6
28.7
21.5
vs Weaker (40)
10.9
10.9
11.0
3.0
2.4
3.7
20.9
18.8
23.6
% over line
62%
54%
71%
34%
23%
46%
50%
38%
62%
% under line
38%
46%
29%
66%
77%
54%
50%
62%
38%
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.1
11.5
3.5
3.6
3.3
22.4
22.4
22.3
vs Stronger (17)
10.6
9.7
12.0
3.5
4.0
2.7
22.1
23.4
20.1
vs Similar (30)
11.0
10.3
11.6
3.4
3.2
3.5
22.4
21.1
23.5
vs Weaker (3)
9.3
11.0
6.0
4.7
4.5
5.0
23.3
26.0
18.0
% over line
66%
60%
72%
48%
52%
44%
58%
56%
60%
% under line
34%
40%
28%
52%
48%
56%
42%
44%
40%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sparta Rotterdam
10.9
Den Haag
10.9
Fortuna Sittard
10.9
PEC Zwolle
10.8
Vitesse
10.7
Ajax
10.7
Feyenoord
10.7
Heerenveen
10.7
AZ Alkmaar
10.6
PSV Eindhoven
10.5
VVV Venlo
10.4
Utrecht
10.3
Heracles
10.2
Emmen
10.0
Groningen
9.9
Twente
9.8
Willem II
9.6
Waalwijk
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Twente
3.9
Vitesse
3.8
Waalwijk
3.7
Fortuna Sittard
3.7
Emmen
3.7
Heracles
3.6
Den Haag
3.5
Willem II
3.5
PEC Zwolle
3.5
Groningen
3.3
PSV Eindhoven
3.3
Utrecht
3.2
Ajax
3.1
Sparta Rotterdam
3.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.0
VVV Venlo
3.0
Feyenoord
2.9
Heerenveen
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Twente
25.0
Emmen
24.2
Heracles
24.0
Sparta Rotterdam
23.2
Willem II
23.1
Fortuna Sittard
23.0
VVV Venlo
22.9
Vitesse
22.8
PEC Zwolle
22.4
Waalwijk
22.2
Den Haag
22.0
Groningen
21.8
Utrecht
21.8
AZ Alkmaar
21.5
Feyenoord
21.0
Heerenveen
20.7
Ajax
20.6
PSV Eindhoven
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.6%
Under 9.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.1%
Under 21.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
0.94
0.38
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.57
1.07
0.43
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.80
1.13
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.27
0.67
1.50
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.61
0.88
0.88
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.38
0.38
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.04
0.52
1.43
0.43
0.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.23
1.40
1.40
0.13
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.64
0.67
1.83
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.06
1.88
1.25
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
70.5%
1.36
-
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
PEC Zwolle · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nick Viergever25%
Koen Kostons25%
Elias Sørensen25%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabriel Reiziger33%
Ryan Thomas25%
Koen Kostons25%
Olivier Aertssen25%
Nick Viergever0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Mbayo25%
Thijs Oosting25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Koen Kostons0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Koen Kostons25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €115m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€136m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €53m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€61m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EMM (7)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €17m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€21m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €44m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€54m vs €10m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Vitesse
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles
Twente
Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen
Willem II
Waalwijk
Emmen
VVV Venlo