This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.30
1.53
2.40
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
3.00
1.00
4.20
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (16)
1.19
2.12
1.29
1.57
1.11
2.56
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.50-2.7%
Under 2.5
39.6%
@ 2.56+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.4%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Sparta Rotterdam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
3.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.1%
11%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.4%
6.8%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.3%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Sparta Rotterdam goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AZ Alkmaar
2.24
Ajax
2.24
Feyenoord
2.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.88
Willem II
1.69
Utrecht
1.64
Vitesse
1.58
Heracles
1.38
Groningen
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.27
Heerenveen
1.27
Emmen
1.23
VVV Venlo
1.08
Twente
1.04
PEC Zwolle
1.00
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Den Haag
0.73
Waalwijk
0.58
AZ Alkmaar is 0.97 points better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of average points per game (2.24 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.72
AZ Alkmaar
2.16
PSV Eindhoven
2.08
Utrecht
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Vitesse
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.58
Heerenveen
1.58
Heracles
1.54
Willem II
1.42
PEC Zwolle
1.42
Twente
1.31
Emmen
1.23
Fortuna Sittard
1.12
Groningen
1.04
Waalwijk
1.04
Den Haag
0.96
VVV Venlo
0.92
AZ Alkmaar is 0.58 goals better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of goals scored per game (2.16 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AZ Alkmaar
0.68
Ajax
0.92
Groningen
1.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.08
Heracles
1.31
Willem II
1.31
Vitesse
1.35
Utrecht
1.36
Feyenoord
1.40
Heerenveen
1.58
Emmen
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.73
Twente
1.77
VVV Venlo
1.96
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
Den Haag
2.08
PEC Zwolle
2.12
Waalwijk
2.31
AZ Alkmaar is 1.05 goals better than Sparta Rotterdam in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sparta Rotterdam
For 3.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 9.2 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
11.9
11.2
3.2
2.4
4.0
21.8
20.8
22.9
vs Stronger (3)
11.7
11.5
12.0
5.3
3.5
9.0
25.7
27.5
22.0
vs Similar (8)
11.1
10.7
11.4
2.8
2.0
3.2
24.6
24.7
24.6
vs Weaker (39)
11.6
12.2
11.1
3.2
2.4
4.0
21.0
19.6
22.5
% over line
72%
64%
80%
38%
24%
52%
52%
40%
64%
% under line
28%
36%
20%
62%
76%
48%
48%
60%
36%
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.7
11.4
2.3
2.6
2.1
24.8
24.6
25.1
vs Stronger (14)
12.3
13.0
11.7
1.8
1.9
1.7
23.7
21.2
26.2
vs Similar (29)
11.5
11.7
11.4
2.6
3.2
2.2
24.4
25.6
23.4
vs Weaker (7)
10.2
9.3
11.0
2.3
2.0
2.7
28.5
28.0
29.0
% over line
69%
74%
65%
32%
44%
20%
69%
68%
70%
% under line
31%
26%
35%
68%
56%
80%
31%
32%
30%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fortuna Sittard
11.6
Sparta Rotterdam
11.6
AZ Alkmaar
11.5
Den Haag
11.5
Ajax
11.0
Waalwijk
11.0
PEC Zwolle
10.9
Feyenoord
10.9
Vitesse
10.8
Heracles
10.7
PSV Eindhoven
10.6
Utrecht
10.5
Emmen
10.3
VVV Venlo
10.1
Willem II
9.8
Twente
9.7
Heerenveen
9.6
Groningen
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Waalwijk
4.2
Twente
3.9
Vitesse
3.7
PEC Zwolle
3.6
Groningen
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.6
Willem II
3.4
Heracles
3.4
Emmen
3.3
AZ Alkmaar
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.2
Ajax
3.1
Utrecht
3.1
Den Haag
3.0
Sparta Rotterdam
3.0
Heerenveen
2.8
Feyenoord
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Twente
25.4
Sparta Rotterdam
24.8
Emmen
23.9
Heracles
23.6
Vitesse
23.5
Willem II
23.5
VVV Venlo
23.3
Fortuna Sittard
23.3
Heerenveen
23.2
PEC Zwolle
22.8
Groningen
22.4
Utrecht
22.3
PSV Eindhoven
21.9
Den Haag
21.9
Ajax
21.9
AZ Alkmaar
21.8
Feyenoord
21.2
Waalwijk
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.7%
Under 9.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.8%
Under 21.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
0.79
0.54
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.42
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.60
1.07
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.10
0.40
1.80
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.57
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.33
0.27
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.12
0.50
1.42
0.33
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Sparta Rotterdam) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sparta Rotterdam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.47
0.93
1.33
0.47
1.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.90
0.60
2.40
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.44
0.43
1.00
0.56
1.78
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
2.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sparta Rotterdam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Sparta Rotterdam · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Milan Zonneveld50%
Marvin Young50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Nick Verschuren25%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jens Toornstra33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bas Kuipers25%
Casper Terho25%
Lushendry Edward Martes25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Nökkvi Þórisson0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bas Kuipers50%
Shunsuke Mito50%
Nökkvi Þórisson33%
Joel Ideho33%
Mitchell Van Bergen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Casper Terho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Ayoni Santos0%
Robin van Cruijsen0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nökkvi Þórisson67%
Ayoni Santos33%
Robin van Cruijsen25%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Filip Bednarek0%
Mitchell Van Bergen0%
Jens Toornstra0%
Bas Kuipers0%
Casper Terho0%
Shunsuke Mito0%
Joel Ideho0%
Julian Baas0%
Milan Zonneveld0%
Alwande Roaldsoy0%
Marvin Young0%
Nick Verschuren0%
Lushendry Edward Martes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €108m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€136m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €47m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€61m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EMM (7)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €20m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€21m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €41m more valuable than Sparta Rotterdam's (€54m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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Ajax
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
Utrecht
Vitesse
Heracles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Emmen
VVV Venlo
Twente
PEC Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard
Waalwijk