This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.97
2.20
1.40
1.60
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.00
1.67
1.33
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.67
2.00
2.00
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
2.21
1.05
2.36
1.36
2.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.0%
@ 1.64-11.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
@ 2.26+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.8%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Utrecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.9%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
13%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.3%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.7%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Utrecht goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.44
PSV Eindhoven
2.38
Feyenoord
2.09
Twente
2.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.79
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.38
Heerenveen
1.21
Cambuur
1.15
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
Waalwijk
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06
Groningen
1.06
Sparta Rotterdam
1.03
Fortuna Sittard
1.03
Heracles
1.00
Willem II
0.97
PEC Zwolle
0.79
AZ Alkmaar is 0.41 points better than Utrecht in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.88
PSV Eindhoven
2.53
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Twente
1.62
Cambuur
1.56
Utrecht
1.50
Vitesse
1.24
Groningen
1.21
Waalwijk
1.18
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.09
Heerenveen
1.09
Fortuna Sittard
1.06
Heracles
0.97
Willem II
0.94
Sparta Rotterdam
0.88
PEC Zwolle
0.76
AZ Alkmaar is 0.38 goals better than Utrecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.56
Feyenoord
1.00
Twente
1.09
PSV Eindhoven
1.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.29
Utrecht
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heracles
1.44
Heerenveen
1.47
Vitesse
1.50
GO Ahead Eagles
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.53
NEC Nijmegen
1.53
Groningen
1.62
Willem II
1.68
Fortuna Sittard
1.97
Cambuur
2.06
AZ Alkmaar is 0.06 goals better than Utrecht in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 5.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
For 6.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
3.3
3.3
3.2
21.3
21.5
21.2
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
10.0
3.7
2.5
6.0
23.7
23.5
24.0
vs Similar (8)
9.5
8.5
10.5
2.5
3.2
1.8
22.0
25.5
18.5
vs Weaker (39)
9.6
9.5
9.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
21.0
20.3
21.6
% over line
52%
38%
65%
40%
46%
35%
44%
46%
42%
% under line
48%
62%
35%
60%
54%
65%
56%
54%
58%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.3
3.3
3.5
3.2
21.2
20.2
22.2
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
9.4
12.5
2.6
2.4
2.8
20.7
20.2
21.2
vs Similar (9)
10.3
12.5
8.6
3.9
4.0
3.8
21.7
19.5
23.4
vs Weaker (32)
10.5
10.7
10.2
3.4
3.7
3.1
21.3
20.4
22.1
% over line
54%
52%
56%
40%
48%
32%
40%
36%
44%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
60%
52%
68%
60%
64%
56%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heerenveen
11.1
Ajax
10.5
Utrecht
10.5
Feyenoord
10.2
PEC Zwolle
10.1
PSV Eindhoven
10.0
GO Ahead Eagles
9.8
Heracles
9.7
AZ Alkmaar
9.6
Sparta Rotterdam
9.5
Vitesse
9.3
Fortuna Sittard
9.3
Cambuur
9.2
Groningen
9.2
Waalwijk
9.2
Twente
9.1
Willem II
9.0
NEC Nijmegen
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.4
Vitesse
4.0
GO Ahead Eagles
3.7
Utrecht
3.3
AZ Alkmaar
3.3
Twente
3.3
Heracles
3.2
Feyenoord
3.2
Cambuur
3.1
Sparta Rotterdam
3.0
Fortuna Sittard
3.0
Groningen
3.0
Waalwijk
3.0
Willem II
2.9
PEC Zwolle
2.8
Heerenveen
2.8
PSV Eindhoven
2.6
Ajax
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vitesse
25.9
Fortuna Sittard
22.8
PEC Zwolle
22.6
Twente
22.2
Groningen
22.2
NEC Nijmegen
22.1
Heracles
22.1
Cambuur
22.0
Feyenoord
21.9
Waalwijk
21.4
Willem II
21.4
AZ Alkmaar
21.3
Utrecht
21.2
Sparta Rotterdam
20.7
Ajax
20.4
PSV Eindhoven
20.1
GO Ahead Eagles
19.9
Heerenveen
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
45.9%
Under 21.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.14
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.57
1.44
0.33
0.58
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.58
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.12
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.43
0.43
1.89
0.44
1.08
0.42
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.33
0.73
0.93
0.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.47
1.55
0.64
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Utrecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €75m more valuable than Utrecht's (€136m vs €61m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €28m more valuable than Utrecht's (€61m vs €33m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €8m more valuable than Utrecht's (€21m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €39m more valuable than Utrecht's (€54m vs €15m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Twente
Vitesse
Heerenveen
Cambuur
Waalwijk
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles
Willem II
PEC Zwolle