This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.53
1.27
1.07
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.73
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.37
1.80
0.90
1.11
1.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.47-7.0%
Under 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.63+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
10.2%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.7%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
4.7%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Willem II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
10%
9.8%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.7%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.7%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Willem II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.59
PSV Eindhoven
2.12
AZ Alkmaar
2.09
Vitesse
1.79
Feyenoord
1.74
Utrecht
1.56
Groningen
1.47
Sparta Rotterdam
1.38
Heracles
1.29
Twente
1.21
Fortuna Sittard
1.21
Heerenveen
1.15
PEC Zwolle
1.12
Willem II
0.91
Waalwijk
0.88
Emmen
0.88
VVV Venlo
0.68
Den Haag
0.65
AZ Alkmaar is 1.18 points better than Willem II in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.00
AZ Alkmaar
2.21
PSV Eindhoven
2.18
Feyenoord
1.88
Vitesse
1.53
Utrecht
1.53
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
Sparta Rotterdam
1.44
Twente
1.41
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Heerenveen
1.26
VVV Venlo
1.26
Heracles
1.24
Willem II
1.18
Groningen
1.18
Emmen
1.18
Waalwijk
0.97
Den Haag
0.85
AZ Alkmaar is 1.03 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals scored per game (2.21 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.68
PSV Eindhoven
1.03
Feyenoord
1.06
Groningen
1.09
Vitesse
1.12
AZ Alkmaar
1.21
Utrecht
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heerenveen
1.44
Twente
1.47
PEC Zwolle
1.56
Heracles
1.56
Waalwijk
1.62
Fortuna Sittard
1.71
Willem II
2.00
Emmen
2.00
Den Haag
2.24
VVV Venlo
2.68
AZ Alkmaar is 0.79 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 7.3 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 12.4 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Willem II
For 5.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.6
10.0
3.1
3.1
3.1
21.7
20.6
22.7
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
9.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Similar (6)
9.7
11.5
8.8
2.7
3.0
2.5
23.8
28.5
21.5
vs Weaker (42)
10.6
10.6
10.5
3.2
3.1
3.3
21.4
19.9
23.1
% over line
62%
56%
68%
30%
32%
28%
46%
40%
52%
% under line
38%
44%
32%
70%
68%
72%
54%
60%
48%
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.7
3.4
3.4
3.5
23.4
24.5
22.2
vs Stronger (17)
10.5
10.2
10.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
22.0
23.3
20.5
vs Similar (33)
9.4
9.6
9.1
3.4
3.4
3.5
24.2
25.2
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
44%
42%
46%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
56%
58%
54%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heerenveen
11.5
PEC Zwolle
10.6
Ajax
10.6
Fortuna Sittard
10.6
Sparta Rotterdam
10.5
Den Haag
10.4
Utrecht
10.4
Feyenoord
10.3
AZ Alkmaar
10.3
PSV Eindhoven
10.3
Vitesse
10.2
Heracles
10.2
VVV Venlo
10.0
Emmen
9.9
Twente
9.8
Groningen
9.8
Willem II
9.8
Waalwijk
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Heracles
3.7
Waalwijk
3.7
Twente
3.6
Den Haag
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
Willem II
3.4
Groningen
3.4
Sparta Rotterdam
3.3
PEC Zwolle
3.2
Feyenoord
3.1
Ajax
3.1
Utrecht
3.1
AZ Alkmaar
3.1
VVV Venlo
3.0
PSV Eindhoven
2.9
Heerenveen
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heracles
24.2
Twente
24.0
Willem II
23.4
Vitesse
23.4
Emmen
23.4
VVV Venlo
23.3
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Fortuna Sittard
22.4
Waalwijk
22.4
Feyenoord
22.1
Sparta Rotterdam
22.1
Groningen
21.8
AZ Alkmaar
21.7
Utrecht
21.6
Den Haag
21.6
Ajax
21.3
PSV Eindhoven
20.4
Heerenveen
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.1%
Under 9.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.1%
Under 21.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.33
1.00
0.27
1.47
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.24
0.40
1.07
0.29
1.45
0.55
Clean sheet %
80% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.63
1.10
0.40
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.07
0.53
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.88
0.80
1.07
0.57
0.64
1.09
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.40
1.20
0.67
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.74
0.70
0.50
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Willem II · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Devin Haen67%
Uriel van Aalst33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Nathan Tjoe-A-On0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Tjoe-A-On67%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Devin Haen33%
Jaden Slory33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €123m more valuable than Willem II's (€136m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €57m more valuable than Willem II's (€61m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EMM (7)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €17m more valuable than Willem II's (€21m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €49m more valuable than Willem II's (€54m vs €5m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Vitesse
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles
Twente
Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Waalwijk
Emmen
VVV Venlo