AZ Alkmaar are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 75% chance to a home win, a 16% chance of a draw and only 9% for Willem II. The prediction stems from AZ’s strong home form, scoring an average of 2.71 goals and conceding just 1.07 against weaker opposition, while Willem II’s recent 2-2 draw shows limited offensive output. The model expects 3.6 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for AZ, a 9.9% probability. The single most likely total of three goals carries a 21% chance. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6%), Home +2 handicap (97.0%), Under 7.5 (96.8% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (93.7% with no edge), Home over 0.5 goals (93.4% with a 1% edge), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.1% with a 2% edge). AZ’s recent four-game winning streak and a 5-2 victory over GO Ahead Eagles underline their dominance at home, while Willem II’s last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Heerenveen, suggesting a cautious approach for the away side.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AZ Alkmaar win
75.0%
Avg Implied 83.3% · @ 1.13
Edge
-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
15.8%
Avg Implied 11.2% · @ 8.41
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.45
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
William Hil
8.00
Willem II win
9.2%
Avg Implied 5.5% · @ 16.97
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
19.50
Marathonbet
17.25
10Bet
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Unibet
17.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.20
2.53
1.12
1.23
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.38
1.67
1.33
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
2.10
1.10
2.71
1.07
0.86
1.14
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.41
1.29
1.92
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.61
1.04
1.44
1.12
1.83
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.4%
@ 1.06+0.2%
Under 1.5
11.6%
@ 7.87-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Under
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.30
1xBet
7.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.2%
@ 1.27-3.3%
Under 2.5
29.8%
@ 3.51+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Under
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Betano
3.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.1%
@ 1.74-5.4%
Under 3.5
50.9%
@ 2.08+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Under
1xBet
2.11
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.07
Both teams to score
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.91+7.6%
No
43.8%
@ 1.81-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
10Bet
1.90
No
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.9%@ 7.49+3.9%
3-0
9.0%@ 7.18+2.7%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.94+4.4%
3-1
8.1%@ 9.69+3.5%
1-1
7.2%@ 14.84+4.2%
1-0
6.6%@ 10.81+2.4%
4-0
6.1%@ 8.71+1.0%
4-1
5.5%@ 11.84+1.7%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Willem II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
6.6%
7.2%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
9.9%
8.9%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
9.0%
8.1%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
4
6.1%
5.5%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Willem II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
AZ Alkmaar is 0.39 points better than Willem II in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
AZ Alkmaar is 0.39 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
AZ Alkmaar is 0.40 goals better than Willem II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.90).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 7.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Willem II
For 5.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 10.5 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
22.7
22.3
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
15.0
19.0
11.0
vs Similar (13)
9.0
8.5
9.4
4.1
4.2
4.0
25.4
25.2
25.6
vs Weaker (35)
11.0
11.5
10.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
22.1
21.6
22.6
% over line
59%
62%
57%
42%
46%
38%
55%
54%
57%
% under line
41%
38%
43%
58%
54%
62%
45%
46%
43%
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.7
2.5
2.4
2.6
21.9
22.8
20.9
vs Stronger (1)
3.0
3.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (47)
10.5
10.3
10.6
2.5
2.3
2.7
21.8
22.6
20.9
vs Weaker (2)
13.0
14.0
12.0
3.0
6.0
0.0
23.5
27.0
20.0
% over line
58%
52%
65%
28%
26%
30%
56%
70%
40%
% under line
42%
48%
35%
72%
74%
70%
44%
30%
60%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.1%
@ 1.50+0.8%
Under 9.5
37.9%
@ 2.38-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.38
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.7%
Under 21.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AZ Alkmaar or Draw
90.8%
Avg Implied 93.7% · @ 1.02
Edge
-2.9%
75%
16%
9%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
William Hil
1.02
AZ Alkmaar or Willem II
84.2%
Avg Implied 90.0% · @ 1.07
Edge
-5.8%
75%
16%
9%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Willem II
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Draw or Willem II
25.0%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.86
Edge
+8.6%
75%
16%
9%
covers Draw + Willem II
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.15
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5
Over
93.4%
@ 1.02+0.5%
Under
6.6%
@ 13.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Under
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5
Over
75.6%
@ 1.15-5.4%
Under
24.4%
@ 4.88+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5
Over
51.2%
@ 1.51-10.4%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.43+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
10Bet
2.40
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5
Over
29.1%
@ 2.27-11.7%
Under
70.9%
@ 1.57+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Willem II over/under 0.5
Over
59.4%
@ 1.83+9.1%
Under
40.6%
@ 1.85-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Willem II over/under 1.5
Over
22.8%
@ 5.21+5.0%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.13-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Willem II over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
@ 14.88-0.1%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.02+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Willem II over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AZ Alkmaar, so a minus line means AZ Alkmaar give that many goals of a start and Willem II receive them. At -1, AZ Alkmaar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AZ Alkmaar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AZ Alkmaar)
AZ Alkmaar -2
34.1%
@ 1.92-12.5%
Draw -2
20.9%
@ 4.12-0.8%
Willem II +2
45.0%
@ 2.81+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.96
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.89
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Unibet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
Handicap -1 (AZ Alkmaar)
AZ Alkmaar -1
55.0%
@ 1.37-10.9%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.90+1.6%
Willem II +1
25.0%
@ 5.75+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Handicap +1 (AZ Alkmaar)
AZ Alkmaar +1
90.8%
@ 1.02-2.3%
Draw +1
6.2%
@ 19.00+1.2%
Willem II -1
3.0%
@ 51.00+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
41.00
Handicap +2 (AZ Alkmaar)
AZ Alkmaar +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.3%
Willem II -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
1.00
0.24
0.31
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.38
1.14
0.29
0.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.53
0.53
1.15
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.43
0.56
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.16-3.4%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 4.80+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.2%
@ 1.80-6.6%
Under 1.5
54.8%
@ 1.94+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Under
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 3.49-6.5%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.26+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.70
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Under
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
69.7%
@ 1.24-5.0%
Under
30.3%
@ 3.66+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.35
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
34.3%
@ 2.20-7.9%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.61+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.17
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.7%
@ 4.79-9.8%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.16+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Willem II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.4%
@ 3.34+4.6%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.29-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Willem II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.8%
@ 10.50-3.1%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Willem II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.53
0.88
0.92
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.12
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.71
1.57
0.79
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.88
0.76
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.61
0.88
0.62
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
88.0%
@ 1.09+2.1%
Under 0.5
12.0%
@ 6.62-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.20
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.47-6.4%
Under 1.5
43.1%
@ 2.54+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.62
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.6%
@ 2.44-8.5%
Under 2.5
70.4%
@ 1.50+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Unibet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
80.3%
@ 1.15-0.3%
Under
19.7%
@ 4.78+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
4.80
Betano
4.75
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
43.5%
@ 1.73-10.1%
Under
56.5%
@ 2.00+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
18.6%
@ 3.22-10.2%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.30+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Willem II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
34.7%
@ 2.69+0.2%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.41-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.38
Willem II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.3%
@ 9.63-1.3%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.02+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Willem II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
93.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.5%
Under 6.5
92.5%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
-
+4.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.02
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
Home or Draw
90.8%
1.02
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
William Hil
1.02
-2.9%
Home +1 handicap
90.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-2.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.16
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
+9.8%
Under 5.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.4%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
+0.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
+2.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
-5.8%
Under 5.5
84.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
+5.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.30
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.27
-
-
+10.2%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.15
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
79.9%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+6.5%
Under 4.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.16
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-3.4%
Away under 1.5 goals
77.2%
1.13
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-5.0%
Home over 1.5 goals
75.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-5.4%
Under 23.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-8.3%
Over 8.5 corners
73.6%
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
70.9%
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
+11.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
70.4%
1.50
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
+8.5%
Over 2.5
70.2%
1.27
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
-3.3%
Under 4.5
70.1%
1.46
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
+6.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Willem II
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Devin Haen67%
Uriel van Aalst33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Nathan Tjoe-A-On0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Tjoe-A-On67%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Devin Haen33%
Jaden Slory33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €123m more valuable than Willem II's (€136m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €57m more valuable than Willem II's (€61m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €17m more valuable than Willem II's (€21m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €49m more valuable than Willem II's (€54m vs €5m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur