Babrungas are the clear favourite, with a 64% chance of victory, the model’s pick, and a 21% draw and 14% away win. The 3.1 expected total goals and a 2-goal average suggest a moderate-scoring game. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 10.6% probability, reflecting Babrungas’ strong home form - scoring 2.17 goals and conceding 1.5 against weaker opposition - while Atmosfera, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 0.85 conceded. Babrungas’ recent win over Garliava and Atmosfera’s recent defeat to Neptūnas Klaipėda reinforce the home advantage. The model’s selections include an 99.2% chance of Away under 2.5 HT goals, 98.6%Under 7.5 total goals, 98.5%Away under 3.5 goals, 97.6%Away under 2.5 2H goals, 96.2%Under 6.5 total goals, 95.1%Home +2 handicap, 93.5%Home under 2.5 HT goals, and 93.2%Away under 2.5 goals. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Babrungas win
64.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.03
2.31
1.38
2.18
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.26
1.07
2.17
1.50
2.33
0.73
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atmosfera
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.10
2.62
1.23
1.18
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
1.68
1.08
2.42
1.33
1.00
0.85
vs Similar (5)
2.40
1.20
5.00
0.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.7%
Under 2.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 3.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.6%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
4.6%
Babrungas goals ↓
Atmosfera goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.3%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
8.9%
10%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.6%
7.1%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.1%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = Atmosfera goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Babrungas is 1.45 points better than Atmosfera in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Babrungas is 0.38 goals better than Atmosfera in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Babrungas is 1.40 goals better than Atmosfera in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Babrungas or Draw
85.7%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
14%
covers Babrungas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas or Atmosfera
78.7%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
14%
covers Babrungas + Atmosfera
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Atmosfera
35.6%
Avg Implied -
64%
21%
14%
covers Draw + Atmosfera
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Babrungas, so a minus line means Babrungas give that many goals of a start and Atmosfera receive them. At -1, Babrungas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Babrungas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Babrungas)
Babrungas -2
22.0%
Draw -2
19.7%
Atmosfera +2
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Babrungas)
Babrungas -1
41.7%
Draw -1
22.7%
Atmosfera +1
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Babrungas)
Babrungas +1
85.7%
Draw +1
9.3%
Atmosfera -1
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Babrungas)
Babrungas +2
95.1%
Draw +2
3.7%
Atmosfera -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.23
0.69
0.94
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.07
0.56
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atmosfera
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
1.08
0.46
0.47
0.35
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
0.48
1.08
0.50
0.31
0.46
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.8%
Under 0.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.5%
Under 1.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.08
0.69
1.24
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.52
1.00
0.75
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atmosfera
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.54
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (25)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.83
0.69
0.38
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.20
4.00
0.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.7%
Under 0.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.5%
Under 1.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.5%
Under 2.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava