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Babrungas vs BFA Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Babrungas
Babrungas
Vs
55%
24%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Babrungas are tipped to win, a 55% chance that the home side will lift the trophy. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, with the most probable total of two goals and a 23% chance of that total. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability, which is the only scoreline to be mentioned. Babrungas have been prolific at home, scoring an average of 2.09 goals and conceding just one against weaker opponents, while BFA, playing away against stronger teams, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include an 82.7% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit. Home win 55%, draw 24%, away win 21%. The recent form narrative starts with Babrungas coming off a win against Garliava, whereas BFA are coming off a draw against Tauras. The predicted outcome remains a home victory.

Results analysis

Babrungas continued their strong run, coming off a win to extend their winning streak, while BFA entered after a draw. The model predicted a home win with a 55% probability, and that call was correct as Babrungas triumphed 3-1. The predicted most likely score of 2-1 was close, but the actual 3-1 result saw the home side add an extra goal. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with 82.7% confidence, as the match produced four goals. All other predictions were settled, and the final outcome matched the model’s favoured result, confirming the accuracy of the forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Babrungas win✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L23L13L40W10W20W50W30W31W20WA·BE124/05H·HEG28/05H·FK 31/05A·HEG08/06H·BAN16/06A·ATM21/06H·GAR26/07A·PAN02/08H·KAU09/08A·FA 16/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.401.871.332.071.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.862.431.252.250.332.67
vs Weaker (23)2.301.092.091.002.501.17
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D11D33D70W04L50W22D11D22D11DH·BAN18/05A·ATM25/05H·PAN02/06H·FA 16/06A·TAU22/06H·KAU29/06A·NEV26/07A·EKR04/08A·GAR09/08H·MIN17/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.572.131.271.531.87
vs Stronger (13)1.771.771.502.172.001.43
vs Similar (9)2.111.442.801.001.252.00
vs Weaker (8)1.621.382.250.251.002.50
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.7%
3-1 ✓
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.5%
Babrungas goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
05.5%4.2%3.0%1.2%0.3%
17.7%11%5.9%2.3%0.7%
28.5%9.8%5.7%2.2%0.6%
35.5%6.4%3.7%1.4%0.4%
42.7%3.1%1.8%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Babrungas is 0.67 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Babrungas is 0.37 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Babrungas is 0.67 goals better than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W12L20W10W10W20W30W20W10WA·BE124/05H·HEG28/05H·FK 31/05A·HEG08/06H·BAN16/06A·ATM21/06H·GAR26/07A·PAN02/08H·KAU09/08A·FA 16/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.120.620.860.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.620.621.000.600.000.67
vs Weaker (22)1.140.771.180.641.090.91
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D22D30W02L10W11D01L11D00DH·BAN18/05A·ATM25/05H·PAN02/06H·FA 16/06A·TAU22/06H·KAU29/06A·NEV26/07A·EKR04/08A·GAR09/08H·MIN17/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.870.470.531.00
vs Stronger (13)0.691.000.831.170.570.86
vs Similar (9)0.780.441.000.000.501.00
vs Weaker (8)0.620.620.750.000.501.25
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L01L20W00D10W30W00D11D10WA·BE124/05H·HEG28/05H·FK 31/05A·HEG08/06H·BAN16/06A·ATM21/06H·GAR26/07A·PAN02/08H·KAU09/08A·FA 16/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.000.751.000.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.881.751.201.600.332.00
vs Weaker (22)1.050.360.910.361.180.36
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L00D11D40W02L40W11D10W11D11DH·BAN18/05A·ATM25/05H·PAN02/06H·FA 16/06A·TAU22/06H·KAU29/06A·NEV26/07A·EKR04/08A·GAR09/08H·MIN17/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.831.270.800.730.87
vs Stronger (13)0.770.770.671.000.860.57
vs Similar (9)1.331.001.801.000.751.00
vs Weaker (8)1.000.751.500.250.501.25
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
4
BAB wins
0
Draws
1
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Babrungas vs BFA · H/A from BAB
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24ABFA Vs BAB3-2
26/08/23ABFA Vs BAB1-2
07/04/23HBAB Vs BFA4-1
09/11/22HBAB Vs BFA2-1
18/06/22ABFA Vs BAB0-3

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/24AFA Šiauliai II Vs BAB0-2
09/08/24HBAB Vs Kauno Žalgiris II3-1
02/08/24APanevėžys II Vs BAB0-3
26/07/24HBAB Vs Garliava5-0
21/06/24AAtmosfera Vs BAB0-2
16/06/24HBAB Vs Banga II1-0
08/06/24AHegelmann II Vs BAB0-4
31/05/24HBAB Vs FK Trakai1-3
28/05/24HBAB Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-3
24/05/24ABe1 NFA Vs BAB2-0

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24HBFA Vs Minija1-1
09/08/24AGarliava Vs BFA2-2
04/08/24AEkranas Vs BFA1-1
26/07/24ANevėžis Vs BFA2-2
29/06/24HBFA Vs Kauno Žalgiris II5-0
22/06/24ATauras Vs BFA4-0
16/06/24HBFA Vs FA Šiauliai II7-0
02/06/24HBFA Vs Panevėžys II3-3
25/05/24AAtmosfera Vs BFA1-1
18/05/24HBFA Vs Banga II2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.78
HomeLLWWW1.72
AwayLWWWW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%48%56%
AVG goals3.383.443.32
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %44%52%36%
Scored2.002.081.92
Conceded1.381.361.40
BTTS60%64%56%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 7 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDD1.30
HomeDDWWD1.67
AwayDLDDD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%46%19%
AVG goals2.962.923.00
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %36%29%42%
Scored1.501.711.31
Conceded1.461.211.69
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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