Babrungas are tipped to win, a 55% chance that the home side will lift the trophy. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, with the most probable total of two goals and a 23% chance of that total. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability, which is the only scoreline to be mentioned. Babrungas have been prolific at home, scoring an average of 2.09 goals and conceding just one against weaker opponents, while BFA, playing away against stronger teams, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include an 82.7% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit. Home win 55%, draw 24%, away win 21%. The recent form narrative starts with Babrungas coming off a win against Garliava, whereas BFA are coming off a draw against Tauras. The predicted outcome remains a home victory.
Results analysis
Babrungas continued their strong run, coming off a win to extend their winning streak, while BFA entered after a draw. The model predicted a home win with a 55% probability, and that call was correct as Babrungas triumphed 3-1. The predicted most likely score of 2-1 was close, but the actual 3-1 result saw the home side add an extra goal. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with 82.7% confidence, as the match produced four goals. All other predictions were settled, and the final outcome matched the model’s favoured result, confirming the accuracy of the forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Babrungas win✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.40
1.87
1.33
2.07
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
2.43
1.25
2.25
0.33
2.67
vs Weaker (23)
2.30
1.09
2.09
1.00
2.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.57
2.13
1.27
1.53
1.87
vs Stronger (13)
1.77
1.77
1.50
2.17
2.00
1.43
vs Similar (9)
2.11
1.44
2.80
1.00
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
1.38
2.25
0.25
1.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.7%
3-1 ✓
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.5%
Babrungas goals ↓
BFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.2%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
7.7%
11%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.5%
6.4%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Babrungas is 0.67 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Babrungas is 0.37 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Babrungas is 0.67 goals better than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.12
0.62
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.14
0.77
1.18
0.64
1.09
0.91
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.87
0.47
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.00
0.83
1.17
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.75
1.20
1.60
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.05
0.36
0.91
0.36
1.18
0.36
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.83
1.27
0.80
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
0.77
0.67
1.00
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (9)
1.33
1.00
1.80
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.25
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →