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Babrungas vs Hegelmann II Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/10/2026
Time: 12:00
Babrungas
Babrungas
Vs
56%
23%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Babrungas are poised for a high-scoring outing, with an expected 3.3 goals and a 58% chance of victory, making a home win the model’s pick. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.2% probability, while the average total of three goals aligns with the 22% chance of that exact total. Babrungas, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Hegelmann II, on the road to a stronger opponent, average 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. The draw probability sits at 22% and the away win at 20%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Home +2 handicap (92%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.4%), Under 5.5 (88.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.9%) and Over 1.5 (85%). Babrungas entered the match on a win, while Hegelmann II came off a defeat, setting the stage for a contest where the home side’s offensive edge and the predicted high goal tally suggest a lively, balanced affair.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Babrungas win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II win
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-920W90W01L20W20W10W12L40W11D10WA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.032.311.382.180.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.000.674.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)2.261.072.171.502.330.73
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L00D02L14L04L31W12L32W03LA·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07A·ATM25/07H·MIN31/07H·GAR07/08A·BE114/08H·EKR21/08A·KAU29/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.001.251.941.072.07
vs Stronger (12)1.331.751.331.831.331.67
vs Similar (11)0.451.910.171.830.802.00
vs Weaker (7)2.002.572.752.251.003.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.9%
Under 2.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 3.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
6.7%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.4%
Babrungas goals ↓
Hegelmann II goals →
01234
04.7%3.6%2.8%1.2%0.4%
16.7%10%5.8%2.4%0.7%
27.9%9.7%6.0%2.5%0.8%
35.4%6.7%4.1%1.7%0.5%
42.8%3.4%2.1%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = Hegelmann II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Babrungas is 1.43 points better than Hegelmann II in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Babrungas is 0.57 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Babrungas is 2.14 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 2.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Babrungas or Draw
78.6%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Babrungas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas or Hegelmann II
77.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Babrungas + Hegelmann II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann II
44.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Hegelmann II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Babrungas, so a minus line means Babrungas give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann II receive them. At -1, Babrungas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Babrungas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Babrungas)
Babrungas -2
16.9%
Draw -2
17.1%
Hegelmann II +2
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Babrungas)
Babrungas -1
34.0%
Draw -1
21.5%
Hegelmann II +1
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Babrungas)
Babrungas +1
78.6%
Draw +1
12.5%
Hegelmann II -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Babrungas)
Babrungas +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.1%
Hegelmann II -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W00D10W10W00D12L20W01L10WA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.230.690.940.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.070.561.170.751.000.40
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L00D01L01L01L01L11D11D00DA·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07A·ATM25/07H·MIN31/07H·GAR07/08A·BE114/08H·EKR21/08A·KAU29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.030.561.000.431.07
vs Stronger (12)0.750.830.830.670.671.00
vs Similar (11)0.181.180.001.000.401.40
vs Weaker (7)0.571.141.001.500.000.67
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W50W01L10W10W10W00D20W10W00DA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.501.080.691.240.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.190.521.000.751.330.33
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D01L13L03L30W01L21W03LA·BAB25/10H·NEP31/10A·TAU09/11H·ŽAL21/07A·ATM25/07H·MIN31/07H·GAR07/08A·BE114/08H·EKR21/08A·KAU29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.970.690.940.641.00
vs Stronger (12)0.580.920.501.170.670.67
vs Similar (11)0.270.730.170.830.400.60
vs Weaker (7)1.431.431.750.751.002.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.0%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.3%-------
Under 6.594.9%-------
Home +2 handicap91.1%-------
Under 5.588.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals87.3%-------
Over 1.585.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.6%-------
Home or Draw78.6%-------
Home +1 handicap78.6%-------
Home or Away77.0%-------
Under 4.576.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals70.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
BAB wins
0
Draws
1
HI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Babrungas vs Hegelmann II · H/A from BAB
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25HBAB Vs Hegelmann II4-1
17/06/25AHegelmann II Vs BAB4-2
26/10/24HBAB Vs Hegelmann II2-1
08/06/24AHegelmann II Vs BAB0-4

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGarliava Vs BAB0-1
21/08/26HBAB Vs Tauras1-1
15/08/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BAB0-4
08/08/26ADainava Vs BAB2-1
03/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs BAB0-1
25/07/26HBAB Vs Ekranas2-0
19/07/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BAB0-2
28/04/26ABFA Vs BAB1-0
11/04/26ASaned Joniškis Vs BAB0-9
01/04/26ANemunas Vs BAB0-2

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs HI3-0
21/08/26HHI Vs Ekranas3-2
14/08/26ABe1 NFA Vs HI2-1
07/08/26HHI Vs Garliava3-1
31/07/26HHI Vs Minija0-4
25/07/26AAtmosfera Vs HI4-1
21/07/26HHI Vs Žalgiris II0-2
09/11/25ATauras Vs HI0-0
31/10/25HHI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-1
25/10/25ABabrungas Vs HI4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.90
HomeWWLWD1.90
AwayWWLWW1.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%57%55%
AVG goals3.223.483.03
Over 1.5 %80%86%76%
Over 2.5 %58%71%48%
Over 3.5 %34%43%28%
Scored2.082.102.07
Conceded1.141.380.97
BTTS56%71%45%
Clean Sheet40%29%48%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.06
HomeLLLWW1.44
AwayLDLLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals3.043.083.00
Over 1.5 %86%80%92%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.221.441.00
Conceded1.821.642.00
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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