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Babrungas vs Jonava Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 11:00
Babrungas
Babrungas
Vs
38%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The clash between Babrungas and Jonava feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but leaving the draw and away win close behind. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance. Babrungas, playing at home against a weaker side, has averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Jonava, on the road to a stronger opponent, has been prolific at 2.0 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 38% for a Babrungas win, 29% for a draw, and 33% for a Jonava win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.8%, Under 5.5 at 94.7%, Under 4.5 at 87.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 86.5%, and Home +2 handicap at 85.2%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given a win probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Babrungas win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jonava win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-920W90W01L20W20W10W12L40W11D10WA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.032.311.382.180.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.000.674.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)2.261.072.171.502.330.73
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Last 10 – goals for & against
160-1600D02L160W04L10W20W12L12L01L21WA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.030.671.602.400.47
vs Stronger (9)1.441.781.002.602.000.75
vs Similar (7)0.710.430.500.751.000.00
vs Weaker (14)2.000.860.501.333.120.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
5.7%
Babrungas goals ↓
Jonava goals →
01234
08.3%7.7%5.7%2.4%0.8%
18.5%14%7.8%3.3%1.0%
26.8%8.6%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.1%3.9%2.5%1.1%0.3%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Babrungas is 0.79 points better than Jonava in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Babrungas is 0.55 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Babrungas is 0.57 goals better than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Babrungas or Draw
67.0%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
33%
covers Babrungas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas or Jonava
71.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
33%
covers Babrungas + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jonava
61.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
33%
covers Draw + Jonava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Babrungas, so a minus line means Babrungas give that many goals of a start and Jonava receive them. At -1, Babrungas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Babrungas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Babrungas)
Babrungas -2
6.8%
Draw -2
11.7%
Jonava +2
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Babrungas)
Babrungas -1
18.5%
Draw -1
20.0%
Jonava +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Babrungas)
Babrungas +1
67.0%
Draw +1
18.2%
Jonava -1
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Babrungas)
Babrungas +2
85.2%
Draw +2
9.8%
Jonava -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W40W00D10W10W00D12L20W01L10WA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.230.690.940.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.070.561.170.751.000.40
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D00D80W03L00D00D01L10W01L11DA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.400.731.000.27
vs Stronger (9)0.671.110.601.600.750.50
vs Similar (7)0.290.000.500.000.000.00
vs Weaker (14)0.930.360.170.501.500.25
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W50W01L10W10W10W00D20W10W00DA·NEM01/04A·SAN11/04A·BFA28/04A·KAU19/07H·EKR25/07A·TRA03/08A·DAI08/08A·NEP15/08H·TAU21/08A·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.501.080.691.240.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.190.521.000.751.330.33
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JonavaJonava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D02L80W01L10W20W11D02L00D10WA·ŽAL31/10H·EKR09/11A·UTE14/04H·ŠIA29/04H·GAR25/07A·BE131/07H·EKR07/08A·KAU14/08H·FA 21/08A·TRA29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.270.871.400.20
vs Stronger (9)0.780.670.401.001.250.25
vs Similar (7)0.430.430.000.751.000.00
vs Weaker (14)1.070.500.330.831.620.25
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.8%-------
Under 5.594.7%-------
Under 4.587.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals86.5%-------
Home +2 handicap85.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals83.8%-------
Away +2 handicap81.5%-------
Over 1.575.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals74.9%-------
Under 3.572.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals71.8%-------
Home or Away71.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
BAB wins
0
Draws
2
JON wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Babrungas vs Jonava · H/A from BAB
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25HBAB Vs Jonava1-2
18/04/25AJonava Vs BAB1-2
13/10/23HBAB Vs Jonava2-1
27/05/23AJonava Vs BAB3-2

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGarliava Vs BAB0-1
21/08/26HBAB Vs Tauras1-1
15/08/26ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BAB0-4
08/08/26ADainava Vs BAB2-1
03/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs BAB0-1
25/07/26HBAB Vs Ekranas2-0
19/07/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BAB0-2
28/04/26ABFA Vs BAB1-0
11/04/26ASaned Joniškis Vs BAB0-9
01/04/26ANemunas Vs BAB0-2

JonavaJonava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ATransinvest 2 Vs JON1-2
21/08/26HJON Vs FA Šiauliai II0-1
14/08/26AKauno Žalgiris II Vs JON2-1
07/08/26HJON Vs Ekranas1-2
31/07/26ABe1 NFA Vs JON0-2
25/07/26HJON Vs Garliava1-0
29/04/26HJON Vs Šiauliai0-4
14/04/26AUtenos Utena Vs JON0-16
09/11/25HJON Vs Ekranas0-2
31/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs JON0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.90
HomeWWLWD1.90
AwayWWLWW1.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%57%55%
AVG goals3.223.483.03
Over 1.5 %80%86%76%
Over 2.5 %58%71%48%
Over 3.5 %34%43%28%
Scored2.082.102.07
Conceded1.141.380.97
BTTS56%71%45%
Clean Sheet40%29%48%
Corners---
Cards---
Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.36
HomeLLWLL0.88
AwayDWWLW1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%21%54%
AVG goals2.622.422.81
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.400.752.00
Conceded1.221.670.81
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet34%21%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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