This Lithuania: 1 Lyga match between Babrungas and Tauras is finely balanced, with neither team clearly favored. Tauras is coming off a defeat, but their away form against stronger opponents has seen them score an average of 3 goals, conceding just 0.5. Meanwhile, Babrungas suffered a defeat in their last outing, but their home form against weaker opponents has seen them average 2.5 goals scored, conceding 1.42. The model predicts an away win, with a 39% chance of Tauras taking the three points. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 12.7%. The most likely total number of goals is 2. Babrungas' home scoring and conceding statistics are 2.5 and 1.42 respectively, while Tauras' away scoring and conceding statistics are 3 and 0.5. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.9% chance of occurrence. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 39%. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 79.9% chance, and no other selections are mentioned.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Tauras, did not come through, as the match finished 1-1 for a draw. The model had tipped an away win with a 40 % probability, but this call proved wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely score of 1-1, which had a 13.2 % chance. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 %, Under 6.5 at 97.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.8 %, Under 5.5 at 93.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.8 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.0 %. Both teams entered the game coming off a draw, with Babrungas’ recent form noted as DWLWW and Tauras’ as DWLDW.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Babrungas win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 47.8% · @ 1.87
Edge
-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.08
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Dafabet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.37
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Dafabet
3.45
Tauras win✗ Miss
40.3%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.49
Edge
+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.67
Marathonbet
3.58
Pinnacle
3.53
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.13
2.62
1.38
2.24
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.44
1.19
2.50
1.50
2.40
0.93
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
1.53
1.47
1.73
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
2.29
1.43
1.33
2.67
3.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.22
1.00
1.75
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
0.86
1.88
0.88
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
@ 1.24+3.6%
Under 1.5
22.7%
@ 3.47-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Under
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.79+1.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.86-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
@ 2.95-1.1%
Under 3.5
70.2%
@ 1.32+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.92
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.85
Under
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
@ 1.69+3.2%
No
43.1%
@ 1.96-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
No
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%@ 6.29+6.6%
1-2
8.8%@ 10.73+5.0%
0-1
8.1%@ 9.96+4.0%
2-1
7.7%@ 7.67+2.3%
0-0
7.6%@ 9.27+3.1%
1-0
7.0%@ 6.87+0.9%
0-2
6.9%@ 17.00+4.4%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.57+2.4%
Babrungas goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
8.1%
6.9%
3.4%
1.2%
1
7.0%
13%
8.8%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.3%
7.7%
5.7%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.3%
3.3%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Babrungas is 0.79 points better than Tauras in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Babrungas is 0.21 goals better than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Babrungas is 0.90 goals better than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (0.43 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Babrungas or Draw✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.22
Edge
-14.8%
32%
28%
40%
covers Babrungas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Babrungas or Tauras✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
-1.8%
32%
28%
40%
covers Babrungas + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Tauras✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 51.5% · @ 1.76
Edge
+16.6%
32%
28%
40%
covers Draw + Tauras
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Babrungas over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.16-6.4%
Under
27.7%
@ 4.30+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.30
Babrungas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 1.90-11.3%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.76+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
Unibet
1.67
Babrungas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 3.90-9.6%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.20+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.20
Babrungas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.0%
@ 1.41+11.9%
Under
23.0%
@ 2.62-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.63
1xBet
2.60
Tauras over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.2%
@ 2.80+10.6%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.35-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.98
Marathonbet
2.93
Unibet
2.48
Under
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Tauras over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 7.90+6.7%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.04-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Under
1xBet
1.04
Tauras over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Babrungas, so a minus line means Babrungas give that many goals of a start and Tauras receive them. At -1, Babrungas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Babrungas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Babrungas)Actual: Tauras
Babrungas -2
4.9%
@ 6.50-8.6%
Draw -2
9.5%
@ 5.25-7.3%
Tauras +2
85.6%
@ 1.26+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.26
Handicap -1 (Babrungas)Actual: Tauras
Babrungas -1
14.4%
@ 3.23-12.3%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 3.49-7.1%
Tauras +1
68.1%
@ 1.77+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Draw
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.20
Away
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.56
Handicap +1 (Babrungas)Actual: Babrungas
Babrungas +1
59.7%
@ 1.26-4.0%
Draw +1
20.2%
@ 3.85-0.6%
Tauras -1
20.1%
@ 5.20+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.26
Draw
Unibet
3.85
Away
Unibet
5.20
Handicap +2 (Babrungas)Actual: Babrungas
Babrungas +2
79.9%
Draw +2
12.4%
Tauras -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.46
0.69
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.22
0.59
1.42
0.75
1.07
0.47
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.71
0.33
1.67
1.75
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.89
0.25
1.25
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.33
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.2%
@ 1.33+2.6%
Under 0.5
28.8%
@ 2.91-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
1xBet
2.83
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.54-0.5%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.39+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Under
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 6.30-2.0%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.08+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 1.79-4.7%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.90+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.70-5.1%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.14+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 11.00-4.3%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.4%
@ 2.37+3.8%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.49-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Under
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 7.30-2.7%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 11.00-6.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.15
0.69
1.24
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.22
0.59
1.08
0.75
1.33
0.47
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.71
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.36
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.9%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.08
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+15.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.5%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.24
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
-
-
-
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
-
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.2%
1.22
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-1.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.33
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.2%
1.32
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
+1.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →