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Baku Sportinq vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 24/12/2024
Time: 10:00
Final 0-2
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Vs
20%
23%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Baku Sportinq win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D13L02L02L32W04L21W21W02L01LH·MOI19/09A·KAR26/09H·QAB04/10A·ZAQ18/10A·QAR25/10A·QAB31/10A·MIN08/11A·CƏB29/11H·DIF11/12A·MOI18/12
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.911.730.001.331.251.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.861.860.001.001.202.20
vs Weaker (4)1.001.500.002.001.331.33
Clean sheet %9% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W31W41W32W32W03L12L01L22D50WA·MIN18/09H·BAK26/09A·DIF03/10H·IMI16/10A·MOI24/10A·QAR30/10H·CƏB07/11H·QAB28/11A·ZAQ13/12H·MIN19/12
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.301.271.002.071.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.601.401.101.102.101.70
vs Weaker (10)1.801.101.600.802.001.40
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-2 ✓
8.7%
0-1
7.8%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
Baku Sportinq goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
05.4%7.8%8.7%5.8%2.9%
14.0%11%9.9%6.6%3.3%
22.8%5.6%5.6%3.7%1.9%
31.1%2.1%2.1%1.4%0.7%
40.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baku Sportinq goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Baku Sportinq is 0.70 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Baku Sportinq is 1.19 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Baku Sportinq is 0.22 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L00D10W03L10W11D01L01LH·MOI19/09A·KAR26/09H·QAB04/10A·ZAQ18/10A·QAR25/10A·QAB31/10A·MIN08/11A·CƏB29/11H·DIF11/12A·MOI18/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.000.670.430.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.171.000.000.500.251.25
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.001.000.670.33
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W10W10W10W02L10W00D00D10WA·MIN18/09H·BAK26/09A·DIF03/10H·IMI16/10A·MOI24/10A·QAR30/10H·CƏB07/11H·QAB28/11A·ZAQ13/12H·MIN19/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.430.330.330.870.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.550.550.300.400.800.70
vs Weaker (10)0.700.200.400.201.000.20
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L02L22D01L11D10W01L00DH·MOI19/09A·KAR26/09H·QAB04/10A·ZAQ18/10A·QAR25/10A·QAB31/10A·MIN08/11A·CƏB29/11H·DIF11/12A·MOI18/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.000.670.711.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.501.000.000.500.751.25
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.001.000.671.00
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W31W22D22D01L02L01L22D40WA·MIN18/09H·BAK26/09A·DIF03/10H·IMI16/10A·MOI24/10A·QAR30/10H·CƏB07/11H·QAB28/11A·ZAQ13/12H·MIN19/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.870.930.671.201.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.050.850.800.701.301.00
vs Weaker (10)1.100.901.200.601.001.20
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BS wins
0
Draws
1
KAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Baku Sportinq vs Karvan · H/A from BS
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/24AKarvan Vs BS3-1

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/12/24AMOIK Vs BS1-0
11/12/24HBS Vs Difai Ağsu0-2
29/11/24ACəbrayıl Vs BS1-2
08/11/24AMingəçevir Vs BS1-2
31/10/24AQabala Vs BS4-0
25/10/24AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs BS2-3
18/10/24AZaqatala Vs BS2-0
04/10/24HBS Vs Qabala0-2
26/09/24AKarvan Vs BS3-1
19/09/24HBS Vs MOIK0-0

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/12/24HKAR Vs Mingəçevir5-0
13/12/24AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2
28/11/24HKAR Vs Qabala0-1
07/11/24HKAR Vs Cəbrayıl1-2
30/10/24AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KAR3-0
24/10/24AMOIK Vs KAR2-3
16/10/24HKAR Vs Imisli FK3-2
03/10/24ADifai Ağsu Vs KAR1-4
26/09/24HKAR Vs Baku Sportinq3-1
18/09/24AMingəçevir Vs KAR1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.18
HomeDLL0.33
AwayWLWWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%0%50%
AVG goals2.641.333.12
Over 1.5 %82%67%88%
Over 2.5 %55%0%75%
Over 3.5 %27%0%38%
Scored0.910.001.25
Conceded1.731.331.88
BTTS45%0%62%
Clean Sheet9%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.74
HomeWWLLW1.75
AwayWWWLD1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %53%55%50%
AVG goals3.002.453.61
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %50%40%61%
Over 3.5 %37%25%50%
Scored1.711.352.11
Conceded1.291.101.50
BTTS42%30%56%
Clean Sheet32%45%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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