Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with Baku Sportinq’s home side averaging only 0.57 goals conceded per match while Karvan’s away form shows a higher 1.75. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance. Baku Sportinq’s average home scoring of 1.14 and Karvan’s away scoring of 1.0 reflect similar opponent strength. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 with a 4% edge (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%). All selections are presented with their exact probabilities.
Results analysis
The upset was swift: Baku Sportinq’s home form, a streak of LDWWD, ended in a 0-3 loss to Karvan, who had just beaten them 3-0 in their last outing. The model had tipped a Home win with a 37% chance, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 0-3 confirmed an Away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%). Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no number was repeated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baku Sportinq win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.72
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.91
Betfair
2.90
Marathonbet
2.82
Betano
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.13
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.24
1xBet
3.22
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Karvan win✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.35
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.77
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Baku Sportinq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.80
1.53
0.73
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.14
0.57
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.93
1.88
0.88
1.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.97
0.87
1.80
0.47
2.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
2.31
0.57
2.00
0.33
2.56
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.57
1.12
1.62
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.34-3.3%
Under 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.84+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Unibet
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.3%
@ 2.13-6.8%
Under 2.5
63.7%
@ 1.61+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Under
Dafabet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
@ 3.89-6.5%
Under 3.5
83.0%
@ 1.20+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.40
Under
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.6%
@ 1.86-5.1%
No
55.4%
@ 1.83+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.80
No
Superbet
1.90
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 5.48+7.2%
0-0
13.0%@ 7.38+7.4%
1-0
11.8%@ 6.94+5.9%
0-1
10.6%@ 6.84+4.6%
2-1
7.6%@ 9.28+3.1%
2-0
7.4%@ 11.22+3.7%
1-2
6.9%@ 9.10+2.3%
0-2
6.1%@ 10.20+2.1%
Baku Sportinq goals ↓
Karvan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.4%
7.6%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.8%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baku Sportinq goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Baku Sportinq is 0.66 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Baku Sportinq is 1.21 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 2.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Baku Sportinq is 0.11 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baku Sportinq or Draw✗ Miss
68.7%
Avg Implied 61.8% · @ 1.47
Edge
+6.9%
37%
32%
31%
covers Baku Sportinq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Baku Sportinq or Karvan✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.28
Edge
-3.2%
37%
32%
31%
covers Baku Sportinq + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Karvan✓ Hit
63.5%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.36
Edge
-3.7%
37%
32%
31%
covers Draw + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.5%
@ 1.38+1.9%
Under
32.5%
@ 2.64-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
1xBet
1.33
Under
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.50
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.0%
@ 2.81-1.8%
Under
69.0%
@ 1.37+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 7.75-1.5%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Under
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Baku Sportinq over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.0%
@ 1.33-5.3%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.99+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Pinnacle
2.53
Karvan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.2%
@ 2.46-10.1%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.46+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
1xBet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.40
Under
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Karvan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.4%
@ 6.25-6.4%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.09+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.07
Karvan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Baku Sportinq, so a minus line means Baku Sportinq give that many goals of a start and Karvan receive them. At -1, Baku Sportinq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baku Sportinq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baku Sportinq)Actual: Karvan
Baku Sportinq -2
4.9%
Draw -2
10.7%
Karvan +2
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Baku Sportinq)Actual: Karvan
Baku Sportinq -1
15.6%
@ 6.10+1.1%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 4.26+0.2%
Karvan +1
63.5%
@ 1.36-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.70
Betfair
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Away
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap +1 (Baku Sportinq)Actual: Karvan
Baku Sportinq +1
68.7%
@ 1.52+10.9%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 3.75-4.5%
Karvan -1
12.4%
@ 4.70-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
4.90
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (Baku Sportinq)Actual: Karvan
Baku Sportinq +2
87.6%
@ 1.11+16.6%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 4.60-8.3%
Karvan -2
3.6%
@ 6.65-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Baku Sportinq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.27
0.57
0.43
0.62
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.25
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.94
0.43
0.57
0.11
1.22
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.1%
@ 1.41+2.8%
Under 0.5
32.9%
@ 2.55-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.62
Marathonbet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.44
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 3.09+2.8%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.29-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
William Hil
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
Under
William Hil
1.33
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 8.50+0.1%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.06-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.50
William Hil
8.50
Under
1xBet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.0%
@ 2.25+4.9%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.57-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 9.00+3.6%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.03-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.6%
@ 2.10-1.9%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.62+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.62
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 8.00-0.5%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.05+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Baku Sportinq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.40
0.57
0.14
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.47
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.13
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
1.38
0.14
1.43
0.22
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.00
0.62
1.25
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.7%
@ 1.26+6.4%
Under 0.5
21.3%
@ 3.28-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.5%
@ 2.36+7.9%
Under 1.5
53.5%
@ 1.48-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Under
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.2%
@ 1.97+8.1%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.69-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Under
1xBet
1.69
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.8%
@ 1.79-3.0%
Under
52.2%
@ 1.85+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.85
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.3%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.09
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.05
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+16.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.0%
1.20
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.46
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
+10.1%
✗ Miss
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Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →