The model favours a home win, with Baku Sportinq expected to edge out Səbail. The odds are 45% for a home victory, 28% for a draw and 27% for an away win. The average number of goals is 2.7, so a modest 2-goal total is most likely, with a 13.2% chance of a 1-1 scoreline. Baku Sportinq, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Səbail, on the road, averages 1.17 goals scored but only 0.5 conceded against comparable teams.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 98.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.0%, Under 5.5 at 94.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.0%, Home +2 handicap at 88.7%, and Under 4.5 at 86.4%. Baku Sportinq are coming off a 0-3 defeat to Karvan, while Səbail return from a 1-1 draw with Xankəndi FK. The match is poised for a tight contest, with the home side slightly ahead in both scoring and defensive solidity.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baku Sportinq win
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail win
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Baku Sportinq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.53
0.93
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.93
1.88
0.88
1.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.62
0.81
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.67
1.22
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.78
2.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
Baku Sportinq goals ↓
Səbail goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.6%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.2%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.3%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baku Sportinq goals (down), columns = Səbail goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Baku Sportinq is 0.04 points worse than Səbail in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Baku Sportinq is 0.22 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Baku Sportinq is 0.07 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baku Sportinq or Draw
72.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Baku Sportinq + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq or Səbail
72.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Baku Sportinq + Səbail
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Səbail
54.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Səbail
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Baku Sportinq, so a minus line means Baku Sportinq give that many goals of a start and Səbail receive them. At -1, Baku Sportinq must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baku Sportinq win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baku Sportinq)
Baku Sportinq -2
9.5%
Draw -2
14.0%
Səbail +2
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Baku Sportinq)
Baku Sportinq -1
23.5%
Draw -1
21.7%
Səbail +1
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Baku Sportinq)
Baku Sportinq +1
72.8%
Draw +1
15.9%
Səbail -1
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Baku Sportinq)
Baku Sportinq +2
88.7%
Draw +2
7.8%
Səbail -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Baku Sportinq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.25
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.69
0.12
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.27
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Baku Sportinq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.47
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.69
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
MOIK