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Bala Town vs Newtown AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2023
Time: 13:30
Final 1-2
Bala Town
Bala Town
Vs
51%
27%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Newtown AFC
Newtown AFC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Bala Town win✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC win✓ Hit
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Bala TownBala Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D03L00D11D23L12L00D22D12LH·PON07/01H·GAP10/01A·THE31/01H·PEN11/02A·GAP18/02A·NEW25/02A·THE13/03H·CAR18/03A·PEN25/03H·GAP31/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.031.430.711.881.31
vs Stronger (5)1.002.401.502.500.672.33
vs Similar (23)1.610.781.360.361.831.17
vs Weaker (2)4.000.502.001.006.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Newtown AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W00D03L11D01L32W00D01L02L05LH·ABE30/12H·GAP07/01A·PEN28/01H·GAP11/02A·THE18/02H·BAL25/02A·CAR10/03H·PEN18/03A·GAP24/03H·THE01/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.771.441.501.642.07
vs Stronger (11)1.091.911.001.671.202.20
vs Similar (17)1.651.591.671.441.621.75
vs Weaker (2)3.002.502.001.004.004.00
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.0%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.3%
1-2 ✓
5.8%
3-0
5.2%
Bala Town goals ↓
Newtown AFC goals →
01234
08.9%6.3%3.6%1.2%0.3%
111%13%5.8%1.9%0.5%
29.7%9.5%4.6%1.5%0.4%
35.2%5.0%2.5%0.8%0.2%
42.1%2.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bala Town goals (down), columns = Newtown AFC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Bala Town is 0.01 points better than Newtown AFC in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.32).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Bala Town is 0.02 goals better than Newtown AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.59).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Bala Town is 0.49 goals better than Newtown AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.74).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bala TownBala Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L00D01L10W11D00D01L12LH·PON07/01H·GAP10/01A·THE31/01H·PEN11/02A·GAP18/02A·NEW25/02A·THE13/03H·CAR18/03A·PEN25/03H·GAP31/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.570.430.750.56
vs Stronger (5)0.601.200.501.000.671.33
vs Similar (23)0.570.390.640.360.500.42
vs Weaker (2)2.000.000.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Newtown AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D03L10W01L01L00D00D00D02LH·ABE30/12H·GAP07/01A·PEN28/01H·GAP11/02A·THE18/02H·BAL25/02A·CAR10/03H·PEN18/03A·GAP24/03H·THE01/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.970.690.620.861.36
vs Stronger (11)0.820.820.830.500.801.20
vs Similar (17)0.591.060.440.780.751.38
vs Weaker (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bala Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Bala TownBala Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D02L00D10W13L01L00D21W00DH·PON07/01H·GAP10/01A·THE31/01H·PEN11/02A·GAP18/02A·NEW25/02A·THE13/03H·CAR18/03A·PEN25/03H·GAP31/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.530.860.291.120.75
vs Stronger (5)0.401.201.001.500.001.00
vs Similar (23)1.040.390.730.001.330.75
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Newtown AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W00D00D01L00D31W00D01L02L03LH·ABE30/12H·GAP07/01A·PEN28/01H·GAP11/02A·THE18/02H·BAL25/02A·CAR10/03H·PEN18/03A·GAP24/03H·THE01/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.750.880.790.71
vs Stronger (11)0.271.090.171.170.401.00
vs Similar (17)1.060.531.220.670.880.38
vs Weaker (2)1.001.500.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bala Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bala Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bala Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newtown AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BT wins
0
Draws
1
NA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bala Town vs Newtown AFC · H/A from BT
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23ANewtown AFC Vs BT3-2
27/09/22ANewtown AFC Vs BT0-2
26/08/22HBT Vs Newtown AFC3-0

Bala TownBala Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/23HBT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-2
25/03/23APenybont Vs BT2-2
18/03/23HBT Vs Cardiff MET0-0
13/03/23AThe New Saints Vs BT2-1
25/02/23ANewtown AFC Vs BT3-2
18/02/23AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs BT1-1
11/02/23HBT Vs Penybont0-0
31/01/23AThe New Saints Vs BT3-0
10/01/23HBT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-0
07/01/23HBT Vs Pontypridd Town3-0

Newtown AFCNewtown AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HNA Vs The New Saints0-5
24/03/23AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs NA2-0
18/03/23HNA Vs Penybont0-1
10/03/23ACardiff MET Vs NA0-0
25/02/23HNA Vs Bala Town3-2
18/02/23AThe New Saints Vs NA1-0
11/02/23HNA Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-1
28/01/23APenybont Vs NA3-0
07/01/23HNA Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-0
30/12/22HNA Vs Aberystwyth Town6-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bala Town
Bala Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL1.52
HomeWDDDL1.73
AwayLDLLD1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%47%38%
AVG goals2.712.203.19
Over 1.5 %77%73%81%
Over 2.5 %55%53%56%
Over 3.5 %23%7%38%
Scored1.651.401.88
Conceded1.060.801.31
BTTS45%33%56%
Clean Sheet39%60%19%
Corners11.0012.0010.00
Cards4.00-4.00
Newtown AFC
Newtown AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.24
HomeDDWLL1.41
AwayWLLDL1.06
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%41%31%
AVG goals3.272.943.62
Over 1.5 %79%76%81%
Over 2.5 %64%53%75%
Over 3.5 %39%29%50%
Scored1.481.471.50
Conceded1.791.472.12
BTTS58%53%62%
Clean Sheet12%18%6%
Corners14.0011.0017.00
Cards5.336.503.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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