The contest between Ballymena United and Carrick Rangers is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 32 % for a home victory, 27 % for a draw and 41 % for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. The average number of goals expected is 2.8, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at a 12.9 % probability. Ballymena United, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Carrick Rangers, on the road, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6 %), Under 5.5 (93.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2 %), Away +2 handicap (85.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (85.5 %) and Under 4.5 (84.3 %). Both sides have shown recent mixed form, with Ballymena United ending on two straight defeats and Carrick Rangers coming off a loss, setting the stage for a tightly contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ballymena United win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ballymena United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.13
1.33
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.58
0.80
1.60
1.14
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.61
1.30
1.20
1.25
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrick Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.60
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.00
0.67
2.00
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (19)
2.37
1.37
2.67
1.56
2.10
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.0%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
Ballymena United goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
8.0%
7.5%
4.2%
1.7%
1
5.7%
12%
9.4%
5.2%
2.1%
2
4.3%
7.1%
5.8%
3.2%
1.3%
3
1.8%
2.9%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballymena United goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Ballymena United is 0.33 points worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Ballymena United is 0.46 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Ballymena United is 0.04 goals better than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ballymena United or Draw
54.2%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
46%
covers Ballymena United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United or Carrick Rangers
73.5%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
46%
covers Ballymena United + Carrick Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Carrick Rangers
72.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
27%
46%
covers Draw + Carrick Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ballymena United, so a minus line means Ballymena United give that many goals of a start and Carrick Rangers receive them. At -1, Ballymena United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ballymena United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United -2
3.9%
Draw -2
8.1%
Carrick Rangers +2
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United -1
12.0%
Draw -1
15.7%
Carrick Rangers +1
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United +1
54.2%
Draw +1
21.2%
Carrick Rangers -1
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United +2
75.4%
Draw +2
14.2%
Carrick Rangers -2
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ballymena United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.78
0.40
0.60
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrick Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
0.93
0.67
1.27
0.40
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
0.33
0.83
1.40
0.40
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ballymena United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.58
0.40
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
0.90
0.60
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrick Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
0.93
1.07
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.36
0.33
1.17
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.89
1.33
1.00
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Ballymena United and Carrick Rangers have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Ballymena United and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Ballymena United and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Ballymena United and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor