PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Ballymena United vs Cliftonville FC Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-2
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Vs
27%
29%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ballymena United win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D10W12L12L03L01L02L01L10W13LA·NEW22/04H·CAR29/04A·COL04/08H·CRU11/08A·LAR15/08H·LIN18/08H·GLE25/08A·GLE02/09A·CAR09/09H·LOU16/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.470.931.070.471.87
vs Stronger (14)0.642.071.171.670.252.38
vs Similar (16)0.750.940.780.670.711.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L21W02L30W30W40W12L11D01L30WH·LIN29/04H·COL10/05A·GLE13/05H·GLE12/08A·NEW15/08H·CAR19/08A·LIN22/08H·LAR26/08A·GLE02/09A·CRU18/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.302.061.061.381.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.351.481.711.290.781.78
vs Weaker (7)3.140.713.670.002.751.25
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.6%
Under 2.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
8.9%
0-2 ✓
8.3%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
4.8%
Ballymena United goals ↓
Cliftonville FC goals →
01234
09.8%11%8.3%3.9%1.4%
17.8%14%8.9%4.1%1.4%
24.8%6.8%4.7%2.2%0.8%
31.7%2.4%1.7%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballymena United goals (down), columns = Cliftonville FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Ballymena United is 1.20 points worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.97).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Ballymena United is 1.33 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 2.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Ballymena United is 0.64 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.13).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D02L00D00D01L01L10W10WA·NEW22/04H·CAR29/04A·COL04/08H·CRU11/08A·LAR15/08H·LIN18/08H·GLE25/08A·GLE02/09A·CAR09/09H·LOU16/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.730.270.400.271.07
vs Stronger (14)0.360.930.500.500.251.25
vs Similar (16)0.190.560.110.330.290.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W02L30W30W30W01L11D00D20WH·LIN29/04H·COL10/05A·GLE13/05H·GLE12/08A·NEW15/08H·CAR19/08A·LIN22/08H·LAR26/08A·GLE02/09A·CRU18/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.120.350.770.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.610.700.790.430.331.11
vs Weaker (7)2.140.142.670.001.750.25
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W01L10W03L01L01L00D00D03LA·NEW22/04H·CAR29/04A·COL04/08H·CRU11/08A·LAR15/08H·LIN18/08H·GLE25/08A·GLE02/09A·CAR09/09H·LOU16/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.670.670.200.80
vs Stronger (14)0.291.140.671.170.001.12
vs Similar (16)0.560.380.670.330.430.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L00D00D00D10W11D00D01L10WH·LIN29/04H·COL10/05A·GLE13/05H·GLE12/08A·NEW15/08H·CAR19/08A·LIN22/08H·LAR26/08A·GLE02/09A·CRU18/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.730.940.710.620.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.740.780.930.860.440.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Ballymena United and Cliftonville FC have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Ballymena United and Cliftonville FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Ballymena United and Cliftonville FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Ballymena United and Cliftonville FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
BU wins
0
Draws
2
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballymena United vs Cliftonville FC · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/23ACliftonville FC Vs BU4-0
03/12/22HBU Vs Cliftonville FC4-1
23/08/22HBU Vs Cliftonville FC1-2

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23HBU Vs Loughgall1-3
09/09/23ACarrick Rangers Vs BU0-1
02/09/23AGlenavon FC Vs BU1-0
25/08/23HBU Vs Glentoran0-2
18/08/23HBU Vs Linfield0-1
15/08/23ALarne Vs BU3-0
11/08/23HBU Vs Crusaders FC1-2
04/08/23AColeraine FC Vs BU2-1
29/04/23HBU Vs Carrick Rangers1-0
22/04/23ANewry City AFC Vs BU2-2

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/23ACrusaders FC Vs CF0-3
02/09/23AGlentoran Vs CF1-0
26/08/23HCF Vs Larne1-1
22/08/23ALinfield Vs CF2-1
19/08/23HCF Vs Carrick Rangers4-0
15/08/23ANewry City AFC Vs CF0-3
12/08/23HCF Vs Glenavon FC3-0
13/05/23AGlentoran Vs CF2-0
10/05/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-1
29/04/23HCF Vs Linfield0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.91
HomeWLLLL1.22
AwayDLLLW0.61
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%35%17%
AVG goals2.392.262.52
Over 1.5 %67%70%65%
Over 2.5 %46%43%48%
Over 3.5 %24%22%26%
Scored0.891.040.74
Conceded1.501.221.78
BTTS30%30%30%
Clean Sheet28%39%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.71
HomeLWWWD2.04
AwayLWLLW1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %51%60%42%
AVG goals3.043.122.96
Over 1.5 %82%84%79%
Over 2.5 %69%68%71%
Over 3.5 %35%40%29%
Scored1.712.041.38
Conceded1.331.081.58
BTTS49%48%50%
Clean Sheet33%40%25%
Corners11.0011.0011.00
Cards3.003.003.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3890
71%
2.4
8521+64
2.8
79%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.6
-
2LinfieldLinfield3885
68%
2.2
8240+42
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.1
-
3Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3875
61%
2.0
8043+37
3.2
87%
68%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.1
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4070
52%
1.8
6746+21
2.8
82%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.1
-
5GlentoranGlentoran3960
44%
1.5
7446+28
3.1
79%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
6Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3950
38%
1.3
5575-20
3.3
87%
64%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.41.9
-
7Coleraine FCColeraine FC4049
32%
1.2
5272-20
3.1
90%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
8Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3847
34%
1.2
6469-5
3.5
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.71.8
-
9LoughgallLoughgall3845
34%
1.2
6068-8
3.4
84%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3837
29%
1.0
4570-25
3.0
76%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.8
-
11Ballymena UnitedBallymena United4031
22%
0.8
3171-40
2.5
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.8
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3817
11%
0.4
2699-73
3.3
82%
63%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13InstituteInstitute23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

← all matches