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Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Vs
43%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Ballymena United and Crusaders FC is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Home win probability 41%, draw 28%, away win 32%. The expected total goals sit at 2.8, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability, reflecting the evenly matched attack and defence. Ballymena’s home form shows an average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Crusaders, playing away, average 1.18 scored and 2.64 conceded to similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 5.5 (93.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.9%), Home +2 handicap (85.8%), and Under 4.5 (85.0%). Ballymena’s recent form has been 2-straight defeats, while Crusaders are on a 3-game winning run, adding to the intrigue.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballymena United win
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W22D11D32W00D12L23L30W12L02LH·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08A·CRU15/08H·GLE21/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.601.131.331.201.87
vs Stronger (12)1.001.580.801.601.141.57
vs Similar (18)1.281.611.301.201.252.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W10W32W32W12L12L21W32W21WH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.131.381.751.142.57
vs Stronger (7)0.862.140.752.001.002.33
vs Similar (23)1.392.131.581.671.182.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.7%
Ballymena United goals ↓
Crusaders FC goals →
01234
07.3%6.4%4.7%2.0%0.6%
18.3%13%7.3%3.0%0.9%
27.4%9.1%5.7%2.4%0.7%
33.8%4.7%2.9%1.2%0.4%
41.5%1.8%1.1%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballymena United goals (down), columns = Crusaders FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Ballymena United is 0.05 points better than Crusaders FC in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Ballymena United is 0.09 goals worse than Crusaders FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Ballymena United is 0.60 goals better than Crusaders FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 2.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ballymena United or Draw
70.6%
Avg Implied -
43%
27%
29%
covers Ballymena United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United or Crusaders FC
72.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
27%
29%
covers Ballymena United + Crusaders FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Crusaders FC
56.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
27%
29%
covers Draw + Crusaders FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Ballymena United, so a minus line means Ballymena United give that many goals of a start and Crusaders FC receive them. At -1, Ballymena United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ballymena United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United -2
9.0%
Draw -2
13.4%
Crusaders FC +2
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United -1
22.4%
Draw -1
20.9%
Crusaders FC +1
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United +1
70.6%
Draw +1
16.5%
Crusaders FC -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ballymena United)
Ballymena United +2
87.1%
Draw +2
8.6%
Crusaders FC -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W11D00D01L13L10W12L00DH·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08A·CRU15/08H·GLE21/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.400.730.471.00
vs Stronger (12)0.331.000.401.000.291.00
vs Similar (18)0.500.780.400.600.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W00D31W12L01L01L21W20W10WH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.810.810.570.86
vs Stronger (7)0.291.430.251.250.331.67
vs Similar (23)0.830.651.000.670.640.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W20W01L21W00D11D10W20W00D02LH·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08A·CRU15/08H·GLE21/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.730.600.730.87
vs Stronger (12)0.670.580.400.600.860.57
vs Similar (18)0.780.830.900.600.621.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W01L20W11D11D00D12L11DH·BAN07/04H·POR11/04A·GLE18/04H·BAL25/04A·ANN28/04H·ANN01/05A·CLI07/08H·BAL15/08H·POR22/08A·GLE29/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.300.560.940.571.71
vs Stronger (7)0.570.710.500.750.670.67
vs Similar (23)0.571.480.581.000.552.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.2%-------
Under 6.597.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.2%-------
Under 5.593.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.8%-------
Home +2 handicap87.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals87.0%-------
Under 4.584.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals78.8%-------
Over 1.577.9%-------
Away +2 handicap77.6%-------
Home or Away72.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals71.1%-------
Home or Draw70.6%-------
Home +1 handicap70.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Ballymena United and Crusaders FC have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Ballymena United and Crusaders FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Ballymena United and Crusaders FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Ballymena United and Crusaders FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
BU wins
2
Draws
5
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballymena United vs Crusaders FC · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU2-1
25/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-2
17/02/26HBU Vs Crusaders FC2-0
22/11/25HBU Vs Crusaders FC2-2
20/09/25ACrusaders FC Vs BU1-1
15/02/25ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-1
26/10/24ACrusaders FC Vs BU1-0
20/08/24HBU Vs Crusaders FC0-1

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26HBU Vs Glentoran0-2
15/08/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU2-1
08/08/26ALinfield Vs BU0-3
25/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-2
18/04/26HBU Vs Portadown1-2
15/04/26HBU Vs Bangor0-0
11/04/26ACarrick Rangers Vs BU2-3
07/04/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC1-1
21/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs BU2-2
14/03/26HBU Vs Carrick Rangers2-1

Crusaders FCCrusaders FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AGlentoran Vs CF1-2
22/08/26HCF Vs Portadown3-2
15/08/26HCF Vs Ballymena United2-1
07/08/26ACliftonville FC Vs CF2-1
01/05/26HCF Vs Annagh United1-2
28/04/26AAnnagh United Vs CF2-3
25/04/26HCF Vs Ballymena United3-2
18/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CF0-1
11/04/26HCF Vs Portadown4-0
07/04/26HCF Vs Bangor1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.04
HomeWDDLL1.21
AwayDWLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.822.623.00
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %52%42%62%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.261.291.23
Conceded1.561.331.77
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Crusaders FC
Crusaders FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.04
HomeWWLWW1.04
AwayLWWLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%28%32%
AVG goals3.363.443.28
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.321.481.16
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet14%12%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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