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Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC Result & Analysis

Date: 07/04/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 1-1
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Vs
46%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ballymena United win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L12L12L20W01L22D02L11D21W22DA·DUN17/01A·LIN31/01A·GLE14/02H·CRU17/02A·COL20/02H·GLE24/02H·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.671.131.470.931.87
vs Stronger (15)0.871.800.861.570.882.00
vs Similar (15)1.201.531.381.381.001.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W12L03L31W22D30W30W03L11DA·COL23/01H·CLI31/01A·CAR10/02H·LIN14/02A·BAN21/02A·BAL24/02H·POR28/02A·CRU14/03H·LAR20/03H·POR04/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.901.131.531.072.27
vs Stronger (13)1.002.381.331.830.712.86
vs Similar (17)1.181.531.001.331.381.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Ballymena United goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
01234
06.9%5.9%4.3%1.8%0.5%
18.2%13%7.1%2.9%0.9%
27.6%9.4%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.1%5.1%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.7%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballymena United goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Ballymena United is 0.29 points better than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.74).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United is 0.24 goals better than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Ballymena United is 0.29 goals better than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.82).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D00D01L11D02L00D00D02LA·DUN17/01A·LIN31/01A·GLE14/02H·CRU17/02A·COL20/02H·GLE24/02H·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.401.070.330.73
vs Stronger (15)0.331.130.431.290.251.00
vs Similar (15)0.400.670.380.880.430.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D02L01L10W11D20W00D00D01LA·COL23/01H·CLI31/01A·CAR10/02H·LIN14/02A·BAN21/02A·BAL24/02H·POR28/02A·CRU14/03H·LAR20/03H·POR04/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.530.730.400.93
vs Stronger (13)0.460.770.500.500.431.00
vs Similar (17)0.470.880.560.890.380.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D01L20W00D11D00D11D21W20WA·DUN17/01A·LIN31/01A·GLE14/02H·CRU17/02A·COL20/02H·GLE24/02H·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.730.400.601.13
vs Stronger (15)0.530.670.430.290.621.00
vs Similar (15)0.800.871.000.500.571.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W02L21W11D10W30W03L10WA·COL23/01H·CLI31/01A·CAR10/02H·LIN14/02A·BAN21/02A·BAL24/02H·POR28/02A·CRU14/03H·LAR20/03H·POR04/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.600.800.671.33
vs Stronger (13)0.541.620.831.330.291.86
vs Similar (17)0.710.650.440.441.000.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Ballymena United's squad is €1m more valuable than Glenavon FC's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Ballymena United and Glenavon FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Ballymena United and Glenavon FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Ballymena United and Glenavon FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
BU wins
1
Draws
3
GF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballymena United vs Glenavon FC · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC2-2
29/11/25AGlenavon FC Vs BU3-1
09/08/25AGlenavon FC Vs BU0-2
19/04/25AGlenavon FC Vs BU2-0
30/12/24HBU Vs Glenavon FC0-2
12/10/24AGlenavon FC Vs BU0-1
30/08/24HBU Vs Glenavon FC3-1
16/04/24HBU Vs Glenavon FC1-0

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs BU2-2
14/03/26HBU Vs Carrick Rangers2-1
07/03/26HBU Vs Portadown1-1
28/02/26HBU Vs Larne0-2
24/02/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC2-2
20/02/26AColeraine FC Vs BU1-0
17/02/26HBU Vs Crusaders FC2-0
14/02/26AGlentoran Vs BU2-1
31/01/26ALinfield Vs BU2-1
17/01/26ADungannon Swifts Vs BU2-0

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26HGF Vs Portadown1-1
20/03/26HGF Vs Larne0-3
14/03/26ACrusaders FC Vs GF0-3
28/02/26HGF Vs Portadown3-0
24/02/26ABallymena United Vs GF2-2
21/02/26ABangor Vs GF1-3
14/02/26HGF Vs Linfield0-3
10/02/26ACarrick Rangers Vs GF2-1
31/01/26HGF Vs Cliftonville FC2-1
23/01/26AColeraine FC Vs GF2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWD1.00
HomeWDLDW1.33
AwayLLLLD0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%33%19%
AVG goals2.722.752.69
Over 1.5 %88%92%85%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %26%29%23%
Scored1.181.420.96
Conceded1.541.331.73
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLD1.00
HomeWLWLD1.17
AwayLLWDW0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.762.423.08
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %26%12%38%
Scored1.141.041.23
Conceded1.621.381.85
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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