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Ballymena United vs Linfield Result & Analysis

Date: 18/11/2022
Time: 19:45
Final 0-2
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Vs
24%
27%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ballymena United win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L03L20W21W11D23L30W23L10WH·LIN03/09H·CAR17/09A·CRU23/09H·POR08/10H·COL15/10A·DUN21/10A·GLE28/10H·NEW04/11A·NEW08/11A·CRU14/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.641.431.431.141.86
vs Stronger (4)0.752.501.002.330.003.00
vs Similar (10)1.501.301.750.751.331.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W00D03L32W24L20W30W00D21WA·CRU16/09A·DUN01/10A·COL08/10H·GLE14/10H·GLE18/10H·LAR22/10A·NEW29/10A·POR05/11H·CLI08/11H·GLE12/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.361.411.301.201.421.58
vs Stronger (4)0.752.500.500.001.005.00
vs Similar (8)0.381.620.601.800.001.33
vs Weaker (10)2.400.803.001.002.140.71
Clean sheet %45% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-2 ✓
9.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
1-3
5.1%
Ballymena United goals ↓
Linfield goals →
01234
08.2%10%9.0%4.8%1.9%
16.2%13%9.5%5.1%2.0%
23.9%6.3%5.0%2.7%1.1%
31.4%2.2%1.8%0.9%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballymena United goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Ballymena United is 1.00 points worse than Linfield in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 2.03).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Ballymena United is 1.00 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Ballymena United is 0.74 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 0.71).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D02L10W10W11D10W10W12L00DH·LIN03/09H·CAR17/09A·CRU23/09H·POR08/10H·COL15/10A·DUN21/10A·GLE28/10H·NEW04/11A·NEW08/11A·CRU14/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.710.860.570.430.86
vs Stronger (4)0.501.000.671.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.700.601.000.250.500.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D11D12L10W00D00D00DA·CRU16/09A·DUN01/10A·COL08/10H·GLE14/10H·GLE18/10H·LAR22/10A·NEW29/10A·POR05/11H·CLI08/11H·GLE12/11
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.450.550.300.400.580.67
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.000.000.502.00
vs Similar (8)0.120.620.200.600.000.67
vs Weaker (10)0.800.300.670.330.860.29
Clean sheet %68% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L01L10W11D00D13L20W11D10WH·LIN03/09H·CAR17/09A·CRU23/09H·POR08/10H·COL15/10A·DUN21/10A·GLE28/10H·NEW04/11A·NEW08/11A·CRU14/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.930.570.860.711.00
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.331.330.002.00
vs Similar (10)0.800.700.750.500.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D00D03L21W12L10W30W00D21WA·CRU16/09A·DUN01/10A·COL08/10H·GLE14/10H·GLE18/10H·LAR22/10A·NEW29/10A·POR05/11H·CLI08/11H·GLE12/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.910.861.000.800.830.92
vs Stronger (4)0.501.500.500.000.503.00
vs Similar (8)0.251.000.401.200.000.67
vs Weaker (10)1.600.502.330.671.290.43
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BU wins
0
Draws
1
LIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballymena United vs Linfield · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22HBU Vs Linfield0-4

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/11/22ACrusaders FC Vs BU0-1
08/11/22ANewry City AFC Vs BU3-2
04/11/22HBU Vs Newry City AFC3-0
28/10/22AGlenavon FC Vs BU3-2
21/10/22ADungannon Swifts Vs BU1-1
15/10/22HBU Vs Coleraine FC2-1
08/10/22HBU Vs Portadown2-0
23/09/22ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-0
17/09/22HBU Vs Carrick Rangers0-1
03/09/22HBU Vs Linfield0-4

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22HLIN Vs Glenavon FC2-1
08/11/22HLIN Vs Cliftonville FC0-0
05/11/22APortadown Vs LIN0-3
29/10/22ANewry City AFC Vs LIN0-2
22/10/22HLIN Vs Larne2-4
18/10/22HLIN Vs Glenavon FC3-2
14/10/22HLIN Vs Glentoran0-3
08/10/22AColeraine FC Vs LIN0-0
01/10/22ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN0-1
16/09/22ACrusaders FC Vs LIN2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.21
HomeLLWWW1.43
AwayLDLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%43%29%
AVG goals2.932.863.00
Over 1.5 %86%86%86%
Over 2.5 %64%71%57%
Over 3.5 %29%29%29%
Scored1.291.431.14
Conceded1.641.431.86
BTTS43%43%43%
Clean Sheet29%29%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.55
HomeLWLDW1.70
AwayLWDWW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%50%42%
AVG goals2.772.503.00
Over 1.5 %68%60%75%
Over 2.5 %59%50%67%
Over 3.5 %32%30%33%
Scored1.361.301.42
Conceded1.411.201.58
BTTS32%30%33%
Clean Sheet45%50%42%
Corners8.1710.336.00
Cards5.006.333.67

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
6422+42
2.3
68%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.70.6
-
2GlentoranGlentoran4080
62%
2.0
8428+56
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
3LinfieldLinfield3877
61%
2.0
7527+48
2.7
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.00.7
-
4Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4071
52%
1.8
6856+12
3.1
80%
68%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.71.4
-
5Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3867
50%
1.8
7245+27
3.1
84%
66%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.2
-
6Coleraine FCColeraine FC3962
46%
1.6
6041+19
2.6
74%
51%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.1
-
7Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3952
36%
1.3
5866-8
3.2
77%
64%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.7
-
8Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3840
32%
1.1
4574-29
3.1
76%
55%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.9
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
29%
1.0
3755-18
2.4
68%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.4
-
10Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4033
25%
0.8
3186-55
2.9
85%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0110.82.1
-
11Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3827
21%
0.7
3574-39
2.9
79%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12PortadownPortadown3826
18%
0.7
3286-54
3.1
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.82.3
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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