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Ballymena United vs Linfield Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2023
Time: 18:45
Final 0-1
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Vs
20%
27%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballymena United win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win✓ Hit
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L23L20W22D10W12L12L03LA·LAR17/03H·GLE03/04A·POR07/04A·GLE11/04H·DUN15/04A·NEW22/04H·CAR29/04A·COL04/08H·CRU11/08A·LAR15/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.401.140.860.691.88
vs Stronger (13)0.692.151.401.800.252.38
vs Similar (17)1.060.821.000.331.121.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D10W11D20W31W01L25L23L32W42WH·GLE12/04A·COL15/04A·LAR21/04A·CLI29/04H·VLL13/07A·VLL20/07H·POG27/07A·POG03/08A·DUN12/08H·GLE15/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.872.200.672.001.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.121.061.431.000.891.11
vs Weaker (14)3.210.642.880.383.671.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1 ✓
11.6%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
6.2%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
5.5%
Ballymena United goals ↓
Linfield goals →
01234
09.2%12%10%5.5%2.2%
16.2%13%9.5%5.1%2.0%
23.4%5.5%4.4%2.3%0.9%
31.0%1.7%1.3%0.7%0.3%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ballymena United goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Ballymena United is 1.46 points worse than Linfield in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Ballymena United is 1.38 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 2.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Ballymena United is 0.72 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.05).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L01L01L00D11D00D11D02L00DA·LAR17/03H·GLE03/04A·POR07/04A·GLE11/04H·DUN15/04A·NEW22/04H·CAR29/04A·COL04/08H·CRU11/08A·LAR15/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.770.290.430.251.06
vs Stronger (13)0.381.000.600.600.251.25
vs Similar (17)0.180.590.110.330.250.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L10W00D00D02L10W11D11DH·GLE12/04A·COL15/04A·LAR21/04A·CLI29/04H·VLL13/07A·VLL20/07H·POG27/07A·POG03/08A·DUN12/08H·GLE15/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.330.870.200.670.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.310.310.290.290.330.33
vs Weaker (14)1.290.361.380.121.170.67
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D22D20W11D10W01L10W03LA·LAR17/03H·GLE03/04A·POR07/04A·GLE11/04H·DUN15/04A·NEW22/04H·CAR29/04A·COL04/08H·CRU11/08A·LAR15/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.860.430.440.81
vs Stronger (13)0.311.150.801.200.001.12
vs Similar (17)0.880.240.890.000.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W10W31W01L23L13L21W31WH·GLE12/04A·COL15/04A·LAR21/04A·CLI29/04H·VLL13/07A·VLL20/07H·POG27/07A·POG03/08A·DUN12/08H·GLE15/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.531.330.471.330.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.751.140.710.560.78
vs Weaker (14)1.930.291.500.252.500.33
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Ballymena United and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
BU wins
0
Draws
3
LIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ballymena United vs Linfield · H/A from BU
DateH/AGameScore
21/01/23ALinfield Vs BU3-0
18/11/22HBU Vs Linfield0-2
03/09/22HBU Vs Linfield0-4

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/23ALarne Vs BU3-0
11/08/23HBU Vs Crusaders FC1-2
04/08/23AColeraine FC Vs BU2-1
29/04/23HBU Vs Carrick Rangers1-0
22/04/23ANewry City AFC Vs BU2-2
15/04/23HBU Vs Dungannon Swifts2-0
11/04/23AGlenavon FC Vs BU3-2
07/04/23APortadown Vs BU1-0
03/04/23HBU Vs Glenavon FC0-1
17/03/23ALarne Vs BU1-0

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/23HLIN Vs Glenavon FC4-2
12/08/23ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN2-3
03/08/23APogon Szczecin Vs LIN3-2
27/07/23HLIN Vs Pogon Szczecin2-5
20/07/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LIN1-0
13/07/23HLIN Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
29/04/23ACliftonville FC Vs LIN0-2
21/04/23ALarne Vs LIN1-1
15/04/23AColeraine FC Vs LIN0-1
12/04/23HLIN Vs Glentoran1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL0.95
HomeDLWWL1.40
AwayLLDLL0.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%40%14%
AVG goals2.462.252.67
Over 1.5 %71%70%71%
Over 2.5 %49%45%52%
Over 3.5 %24%20%29%
Scored0.951.150.76
Conceded1.511.101.90
BTTS32%30%33%
Clean Sheet29%45%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.82
HomeDDWLW2.00
AwayDWLLW1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals2.962.793.12
Over 1.5 %72%67%77%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored1.841.881.81
Conceded1.120.921.31
BTTS36%33%38%
Clean Sheet48%58%38%
Corners9.3810.758.00
Cards5.436.254.33

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3890
71%
2.4
8521+64
2.8
79%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.6
-
2LinfieldLinfield3885
68%
2.2
8240+42
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.1
-
3Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3875
61%
2.0
8043+37
3.2
87%
68%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.1
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4070
52%
1.8
6746+21
2.8
82%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.1
-
5GlentoranGlentoran3960
44%
1.5
7446+28
3.1
79%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
6Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3950
38%
1.3
5575-20
3.3
87%
64%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.41.9
-
7Coleraine FCColeraine FC4049
32%
1.2
5272-20
3.1
90%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
8Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3847
34%
1.2
6469-5
3.5
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.71.8
-
9LoughgallLoughgall3845
34%
1.2
6068-8
3.4
84%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3837
29%
1.0
4570-25
3.0
76%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.8
-
11Ballymena UnitedBallymena United4031
22%
0.8
3171-40
2.5
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.8
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3817
11%
0.4
2699-73
3.3
82%
63%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13InstituteInstitute23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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