Balzan FC’s recent win over Gzira United gives them a brief lift, yet the model still names Floriana as the clear favourite, assigning a 63% chance of victory. Floriana’s away form is formidable, scoring an average of two goals while conceding only 0.29 against weaker opponents, which explains the high win probability. The expected total goals for the match is 2.9, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 11.2% chance, underscoring Floriana’s attacking edge.
Home win probability sits at 15%, draw at 23%, and away win at 63%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Away +2 handicap (95.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (94%), Under 5.5 (92.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.8%), and Draw or Away (85.4%). Floriana’s away scoring prowess against a weaker side, combined with Balzan’s modest home form, drives the model’s confidence in an away win and the associated low-goal, high-handicap picks.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Balzan FC win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win
61.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Balzan FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
2.27
1.07
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.14
2.10
1.30
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.62
2.60
0.60
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
1.83
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.00
1.40
1.20
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.57
2.38
0.75
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
0-2
10.8%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.1%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
4.6%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Floriana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
9.9%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1
4.1%
11%
9.9%
6.5%
3.2%
2
2.3%
4.6%
4.6%
3.0%
1.5%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Balzan FC is 0.88 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Balzan FC is 0.37 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Balzan FC is 0.47 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Balzan FC or Draw
39.0%
Avg Implied -
16%
23%
61%
covers Balzan FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC or Floriana
76.8%
Avg Implied -
16%
23%
61%
covers Balzan FC + Floriana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Floriana
84.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
23%
61%
covers Draw + Floriana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 3.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Balzan FC, so a minus line means Balzan FC give that many goals of a start and Floriana receive them. At -1, Balzan FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Balzan FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.1%
Floriana +2
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC -1
5.5%
Draw -1
10.3%
Floriana +1
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC +1
39.0%
Draw +1
23.4%
Floriana -1
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC +2
62.4%
Draw +2
19.0%
Floriana -2
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Balzan FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.12
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.72
0.50
0.75
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Balzan FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.60
1.47
0.67
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.64
1.50
0.80
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.11
0.50
0.75
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.07
1.75
0.12
1.17
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Balzan FC's squad is €3m less valuable than Floriana's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Balzan FC's attack is €1m less valuable than Floriana's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Balzan FC and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Balzan FC's defence is €1m less valuable than Floriana's (€1m vs €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United