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Balzan FC vs Hibernians Result & Analysis

Date: 01/11/2024
Time: 19:30
Final 0-1
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Vs
25%
30%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with Hibernians holding a 45% chance of triumph, a 30% draw probability and Balzan FC only 25% to come away victorious. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% probability. Balzan’s home form shows they average 0.92 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Hibernians on the road average 1.18 scored and 0.82 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries an 80% probability, and the only other suggested pick is the same, with an 80% chance. The match is set to be a tight contest, with Hibernians’ recent draw and Balzan’s win-heavy run hinting at a balanced battle. The final outcome, as recorded, was a 0-1 away win for Hibernians.

Results analysis

The win extends Balzan FC’s recent run, while Hibernians, after a draw, continued their positive streak. The final score was 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 45% probability and proved correct. The model’s selection Under 3.5, with an 80% probability, also hit. The most likely total of 2 goals, at 28%, did not materialise, but the 0-1 result kept the total below 3.5. Overall, the favoured outcome and the key selection were delivered accurately, confirming the model’s accuracy for this match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Balzan FC win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W33D02L20W02L11D12L21W02L03LA·MAR03/05H·BIR16/08A·SLI25/08H·NAX29/08H·ZAB16/09H·HAM21/09A·MAR28/09H·GZI03/10A·MEL20/10A·FLO26/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.331.001.311.071.36
vs Stronger (7)0.712.431.003.000.502.00
vs Similar (21)1.051.000.921.001.221.00
vs Weaker (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W20W00D02L11D21W20W01L20WA·HAM04/05A·NAX17/08H·GZI25/08H·SLI29/08H·BIR14/09A·FLO22/09A·ZAB28/09A·HAM02/10A·MOS19/10H·MEL25/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.900.931.141.250.69
vs Stronger (8)0.620.880.251.251.000.50
vs Similar (20)1.201.001.221.221.180.82
vs Weaker (2)2.000.001.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.3%
Under 2.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1 ✓
12.3%
0-0
11.3%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.4%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
01234
011%12%9.2%4.2%1.4%
18.2%14%8.7%3.9%1.3%
24.4%6.0%4.1%1.9%0.6%
31.4%1.9%1.3%0.6%0.2%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Balzan FC is 0.62 points worse than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Balzan FC is 0.28 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.34).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Balzan FC is 0.31 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W22D01L20W01L01L11D10W01L01LA·MAR03/05H·BIR16/08A·SLI25/08H·NAX29/08H·ZAB16/09H·HAM21/09A·MAR28/09H·GZI03/10A·MEL20/10A·FLO26/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.690.560.360.71
vs Stronger (7)0.431.140.671.000.251.25
vs Similar (21)0.570.520.670.500.440.56
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D00D00D00D00D01L10W01L20WA·HAM04/05A·NAX17/08H·GZI25/08H·SLI29/08H·BIR14/09A·FLO22/09A·ZAB28/09A·HAM02/10A·MOS19/10H·MEL25/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.430.430.750.38
vs Stronger (8)0.250.380.000.500.500.25
vs Similar (20)0.650.450.670.440.640.45
vs Weaker (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L00D01L10W01L11D01L02LA·MAR03/05H·BIR16/08A·SLI25/08H·NAX29/08H·ZAB16/09H·HAM21/09A·MAR28/09H·GZI03/10A·MEL20/10A·FLO26/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.310.750.710.64
vs Stronger (7)0.291.290.332.000.250.75
vs Similar (21)0.480.480.250.500.780.44
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W00D02L11D20W10W00D00DA·HAM04/05A·NAX17/08H·GZI25/08H·SLI29/08H·BIR14/09A·FLO22/09A·ZAB28/09A·HAM02/10A·MOS19/10H·MEL25/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.500.710.500.31
vs Stronger (8)0.380.500.250.750.500.25
vs Similar (20)0.550.550.560.780.550.36
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Balzan FC's squad is €4m less valuable than Hibernians's (€2m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Balzan FC's attack is €1m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Balzan FC and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Balzan FC's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
BF wins
2
Draws
1
HIB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Balzan FC vs Hibernians · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/24HBF Vs Hibernians0-0
22/10/23AHibernians Vs BF0-2
01/05/23AHibernians Vs BF2-2
05/02/23AHibernians Vs BF1-2
02/10/22HBF Vs Hibernians0-2

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24AFloriana Vs BF3-0
20/10/24AMelita Vs BF2-0
03/10/24HBF Vs Gzira United2-1
28/09/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BF2-1
21/09/24HBF Vs Hamrun Spartans1-1
16/09/24HBF Vs Zabbar St. Patrick0-2
29/08/24HBF Vs Naxxar Lions2-0
25/08/24ASliema Wanderers Vs BF2-0
16/08/24HBF Vs Birkirkara3-3
03/05/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BF0-1

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/24HHIB Vs Melita2-0
19/10/24AMosta Vs HIB1-0
02/10/24AHamrun Spartans Vs HIB0-2
28/09/24AZabbar St. Patrick Vs HIB1-2
22/09/24AFloriana Vs HIB1-1
14/09/24HHIB Vs Birkirkara0-2
29/08/24HHIB Vs Sliema Wanderers0-0
25/08/24HHIB Vs Gzira United2-0
17/08/24ANaxxar Lions Vs HIB1-2
04/05/24AHamrun Spartans Vs HIB1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.34
HomeDWLDW1.27
AwayWLLLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%31%38%
AVG goals2.462.382.54
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.140.961.33
Conceded1.321.421.21
BTTS42%35%50%
Clean Sheet30%38%21%
Corners15.0015.5014.00
Cards6.677.505.00
Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.50
HomeLWDLW1.28
AwayWDWWL1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%36%48%
AVG goals2.522.482.56
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %40%40%40%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.321.081.56
Conceded1.201.401.00
BTTS42%40%44%
Clean Sheet32%28%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3466
53%
1.9
5223+29
2.2
74%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.50.7
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara3459
50%
1.7
4629+17
2.2
65%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.40.9
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3458
50%
1.7
5032+18
2.4
62%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.50.9
-
4Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3456
47%
1.6
4928+21
2.3
62%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.40.8
-
5HiberniansHibernians3249
44%
1.5
4340+3
2.6
81%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.31.2
-
6MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3247
41%
1.5
4739+8
2.7
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.2
-
7Gzira UnitedGzira United3242
34%
1.3
3442-8
2.4
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
8MostaMosta3238
38%
1.2
3553-18
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
9Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3236
31%
1.1
4550-5
3.0
84%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
10Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
3155-24
2.6
76%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
11Balzan FCBalzan FC3229
19%
0.9
3450-16
2.6
78%
53%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
12MelitaMelita3329
21%
0.9
3863-25
3.1
88%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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