The model favours an away win, with Hibernians holding a 45% chance of triumph, a 30% draw probability and Balzan FC only 25% to come away victorious. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% probability. Balzan’s home form shows they average 0.92 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Hibernians on the road average 1.18 scored and 0.82 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries an 80% probability, and the only other suggested pick is the same, with an 80% chance. The match is set to be a tight contest, with Hibernians’ recent draw and Balzan’s win-heavy run hinting at a balanced battle. The final outcome, as recorded, was a 0-1 away win for Hibernians.
Results analysis
The win extends Balzan FC’s recent run, while Hibernians, after a draw, continued their positive streak. The final score was 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 45% probability and proved correct. The model’s selection Under 3.5, with an 80% probability, also hit. The most likely total of 2 goals, at 28%, did not materialise, but the 0-1 result kept the total below 3.5. Overall, the favoured outcome and the key selection were delivered accurately, confirming the model’s accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Balzan FC win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Balzan FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
1.00
1.31
1.07
1.36
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.43
1.00
3.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.00
0.92
1.00
1.22
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.90
0.93
1.14
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.25
1.25
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.00
1.22
1.22
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.3%
Under 2.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1 ✓
12.3%
0-0
11.3%
0-2
9.2%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.4%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.2%
4.2%
1.4%
1
8.2%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.4%
6.0%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
1.94
Birkirkara
1.74
Sliema Wanderers
1.71
Hamrun Spartans
1.65
Hibernians
1.53
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Gzira United
1.31
Mosta
1.19
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.12
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Balzan FC
0.91
Melita
0.88
Balzan FC is 0.62 points worse than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Floriana
1.53
Sliema Wanderers
1.47
Marsaxlokk
1.47
Hamrun Spartans
1.44
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.41
Birkirkara
1.35
Hibernians
1.34
Melita
1.15
Mosta
1.09
Balzan FC
1.06
Gzira United
1.06
Naxxar Lions
0.94
Balzan FC is 0.28 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Floriana
0.68
Hamrun Spartans
0.82
Birkirkara
0.85
Sliema Wanderers
0.94
Marsaxlokk
1.22
Hibernians
1.25
Gzira United
1.31
Balzan FC
1.56
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.56
Mosta
1.66
Naxxar Lions
1.67
Melita
1.91
Balzan FC is 0.31 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Balzan FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.69
0.56
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.52
0.67
0.50
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.45
0.67
0.44
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Balzan FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.31
0.75
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.29
0.33
2.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.48
0.25
0.50
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.71
0.50
0.31
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.55
0.56
0.78
0.55
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
Balzan FC's squad is €4m less valuable than Hibernians's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
Balzan FC's attack is €1m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
Balzan FC and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Balzan FC's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €3m).
Malta: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →