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Balzan FC vs Marsaxlokk Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 1-1
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Vs
29%
25%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Marsaxlokk is expected to emerge victorious in this Malta Premier League clash, with a predicted 46% chance of an away win. The match is likely to be an open and high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.1 goals. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring in 11.6% of simulations.

Balzan FC has been performing reasonably well at home, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similar opponents. In contrast, Marsaxlokk has struggled to find the net while away, scoring an average of 1.1 goals against similar opponents, but has been conceding 1.3 goals.

The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, occurring in 82.7% of simulations, giving Marsaxlokk an edge in this aspect. The model also suggests a draw, occurring in 25% of simulations. The home win percentage is 28%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 46%.

Results analysis

In a stunning turn of events, Marsaxlokk have pulled off a remarkable draw against Balzan FC, extending their recent unbeaten run. The final score was 1-1, a result that goes against the pre-match favourite, Balzan FC, who were predicted to win with a 29% probability. The Pythia model's call was incorrect, as they had selected an Away win with a 46% probability.

Marsaxlokk's recent form, which included a win and three draws in their last five matches, suggests they are a force to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, Balzan FC's recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins and losses. The model's selection of an Away win was not the only incorrect call, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 hit with an 82.7% probability, exceeding the expected total goals of 3.1.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Balzan FC win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 30.6% · @ 2.95
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.13
1xBet
3.01
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
Dafabet
2.95
Draw✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.09
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.25
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.36
Betano
2.35
888Sport
2.30
William Hil
2.30
10Bet
2.30

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W02L41W14L31W21W12L10W33D20WH·BIR01/02A·MEL08/02A·MAR15/02H·ST.22/02A·PIE28/02A·FGU10/03H·SWI14/03A·SIR06/04H·BIR12/04H·MEL19/04← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.972.361.211.620.75
vs Stronger (1)2.003.002.003.00--
vs Similar (21)1.861.002.251.381.620.77
vs Weaker (8)2.250.622.600.601.670.67
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D11D32W13L21W10W32W11D12LA·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05A·FLO16/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.171.381.191.071.14
vs Stronger (13)1.001.461.171.830.861.14
vs Similar (17)1.410.941.500.801.291.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
@ 1.33+13.8%
Under 1.5
17.3%
@ 2.94-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Under
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.92
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.0%
@ 2.08+15.8%
Under 2.5
40.0%
@ 1.66-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
888Sport
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.7%
@ 3.64+12.6%
Under 3.5
62.3%
@ 1.22-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
888Sport
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
10Bet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.4%
@ 1.80+11.7%
No
37.6%
@ 1.85-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.85
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
No
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
888Sport
1.85
10Bet
1.85

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.7%@ 5.67+4.2%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.43+4.2%
2-1
7.2%@ 10.08+3.0%
0-2
6.8%@ 9.86+2.5%
0-1
6.7%@ 6.46+0.2%
2-2
6.3%@ 13.50+3.2%
0-0
5.5%@ 7.83+0.1%
1-3
5.4%@ 17.43+3.0%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
05.5%6.7%6.8%4.0%1.7%
15.0%12%9.3%5.4%2.4%
24.1%7.2%6.3%3.7%1.6%
31.9%3.3%2.9%1.7%0.7%
40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Balzan FC is 0.38 points worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.68).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Balzan FC is 0.11 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Balzan FC is 0.14 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L20W02L10W20W01L10W01L10WH·BIR01/02A·MEL08/02A·MAR15/02H·ST.22/02A·PIE28/02A·FGU10/03H·SWI14/03A·SIR06/04H·BIR12/04H·MEL19/04← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.860.500.560.25
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (21)0.570.380.750.500.460.31
vs Weaker (8)1.120.121.200.201.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L00D21W12L00D10W21W10W10WA·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05A·FLO16/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.750.440.570.71
vs Stronger (13)0.690.620.830.670.570.57
vs Similar (17)0.650.530.700.300.570.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W12L21W01L11D00D32W10WH·BIR01/02A·MEL08/02A·MAR15/02H·ST.22/02A·PIE28/02A·FGU10/03H·SWI14/03A·SIR06/04H·BIR12/04H·MEL19/04← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.601.500.711.060.50
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (21)1.290.621.500.881.150.46
vs Weaker (8)1.120.501.400.400.670.67
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D11D01L21W00D11D01L02LA·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05A·FLO16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.620.750.500.43
vs Stronger (13)0.310.850.331.170.290.57
vs Similar (17)0.760.410.800.500.710.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%1.33
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
+13.8%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Balzan FC's squad is €2m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Balzan FC and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Balzan FC's midfield is €2m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€0m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Balzan FC and Marsaxlokk have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
BF wins
2
Draws
3
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Balzan FC vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/25HBF Vs Marsaxlokk0-3
24/11/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BF2-1
28/09/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BF2-1
03/05/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BF0-1
21/01/24HBF Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
29/01/23HBF Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
11/09/22AMarsaxlokk Vs BF1-2

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26HBF Vs Melita2-0
12/04/26HBF Vs Birzebbuga3-3
06/04/26ASirens Vs BF0-1
14/03/26HBF Vs Swieqi United1-2
10/03/26AFgura United Vs BF1-2
28/02/26APietà Hotspurs Vs BF1-3
22/02/26HBF Vs St. Andrews1-4
15/02/26AMarsa Vs BF1-4
08/02/26AMelita Vs BF2-0
01/02/26HBF Vs Birzebbuga3-0

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26AFloriana Vs MAR2-1
09/05/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans1-1
02/05/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions3-2
26/04/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-0
19/04/26HMAR Vs Gzira United2-1
15/04/26HMAR Vs Floriana1-3
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
28/02/26AMosta Vs MAR1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.46
HomeWLLDW1.57
AwayLWWWW1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%43%37%
AVG goals2.863.132.63
Over 1.5 %80%87%74%
Over 2.5 %60%65%56%
Over 3.5 %32%39%26%
Scored1.581.871.33
Conceded1.281.261.30
BTTS56%61%52%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.66
HomeLWWWD1.86
AwayWDLWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%55%43%
AVG goals2.542.822.32
Over 1.5 %74%82%68%
Over 2.5 %52%55%50%
Over 3.5 %22%27%18%
Scored1.401.501.32
Conceded1.141.321.00
BTTS58%73%46%
Clean Sheet30%18%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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