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Balzan FC vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 0-0
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Vs
28%
33%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Balzan FC win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L22D00D11D11D20W41W11D01LA·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02H·HIB24/02A·BIR02/03A·NAX08/03H·GUD17/03A·SIR06/04H·SLI14/04A·VAL21/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.230.731.401.471.07
vs Stronger (8)0.502.120.502.750.501.50
vs Similar (20)1.250.900.701.001.800.80
vs Weaker (2)2.001.002.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W02L21W04L12L11D04L31WH·SIR03/02A·SLI10/02H·VAL17/02H·BIR24/02A·MAR03/03H·HAM10/03A·GZI17/03H·SAN07/04A·FLO13/04H·HIB21/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.330.881.751.140.86
vs Stronger (7)0.292.430.253.000.331.67
vs Similar (20)1.101.151.181.451.000.78
vs Weaker (3)2.000.000.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0 ✓
14.0%
0-1
13.1%
1-0
10.4%
0-2
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.4%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
014%13%8.2%3.1%0.9%
110%15%7.6%2.9%0.8%
25.4%6.2%3.5%1.3%0.4%
31.7%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
40.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Balzan FC is 0.12 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Balzan FC is 0.27 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Balzan FC is 0.15 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L00D10W01L10W10W10W01LA·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02H·HIB24/02A·BIR02/03A·NAX08/03H·GUD17/03A·SIR06/04H·SLI14/04A·VAL21/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.470.470.470.40
vs Stronger (8)0.380.620.500.500.250.75
vs Similar (20)0.500.400.400.500.600.30
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D02L11D03L00D10W03L11DH·SIR03/02A·SLI10/02H·VAL17/02H·BIR24/02A·MAR03/03H·HAM10/03A·GZI17/03H·SAN07/04A·FLO13/04H·HIB21/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.380.940.570.50
vs Stronger (7)0.141.570.001.750.331.33
vs Similar (20)0.500.550.550.730.440.33
vs Weaker (3)1.000.000.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W00D01L10W10W31W01L00DA·GZI04/02H·SAN10/02A·FLO18/02H·HIB24/02A·BIR02/03A·NAX08/03H·GUD17/03A·SIR06/04H·SLI14/04A·VAL21/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.270.931.000.67
vs Stronger (8)0.121.500.002.250.250.75
vs Similar (20)0.750.500.300.501.200.50
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D10W01L12L01L01L20WH·SIR03/02A·SLI10/02H·VAL17/02H·BIR24/02A·MAR03/03H·HAM10/03A·GZI17/03H·SAN07/04A·FLO13/04H·HIB21/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.500.810.570.36
vs Stronger (7)0.140.860.251.250.000.33
vs Similar (20)0.600.600.640.730.560.44
vs Weaker (3)1.000.000.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Balzan FC's squad is €2m less valuable than Mosta's (€2m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Balzan FC and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Balzan FC and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Balzan FC and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BF wins
0
Draws
1
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Balzan FC vs Mosta · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/24AMosta Vs BF0-2
10/04/23AMosta Vs BF2-3
13/11/22HBF Vs Mosta1-2

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24AValletta FC Vs BF1-0
14/04/24HBF Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
06/04/24ASirens Vs BF1-4
17/03/24HBF Vs Gudja United2-0
08/03/24ANaxxar Lions Vs BF1-1
02/03/24ABirkirkara Vs BF1-1
24/02/24HBF Vs Hibernians0-0
18/02/24AFloriana Vs BF2-2
10/02/24HBF Vs Santa Lucía0-1
04/02/24AGzira United Vs BF1-1

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24HMOS Vs Hibernians3-1
13/04/24AFloriana Vs MOS4-0
07/04/24HMOS Vs Santa Lucía1-1
17/03/24AGzira United Vs MOS2-1
10/03/24HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans0-4
03/03/24AMarsaxlokk Vs MOS1-2
24/02/24HMOS Vs Birkirkara0-2
17/02/24HMOS Vs Valletta FC1-0
10/02/24ASliema Wanderers Vs MOS0-0
03/02/24HMOS Vs Sirens0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.44
HomeLLDWD1.17
AwayDDDWL1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%29%46%
AVG goals2.482.422.54
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.220.921.50
Conceded1.261.501.04
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners15.0015.5014.00
Cards6.677.505.00
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW1.46
HomeWLLDW1.28
AwayWDWLL1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%36%44%
AVG goals2.582.762.40
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %22%28%16%
Scored1.281.161.40
Conceded1.301.601.00
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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