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Balzan FC vs Sliema Wanderers Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 18:30
Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Vs
30%
26%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with Sliema Wanderers holding a 42% chance, a draw at 26%, and Balzan FC 32%. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively encounter, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the match.

Sliema Wanderers, playing away against a weaker side, average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded, while Balzan FC’s home form shows a modest 2-1 win over Gzira United and a recent win that suggests resilience. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.1%), Under 5.5 (90.6%), Away +2 handicap (85.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (82.7%), and Over 1.5 (82.6%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are assigned win probabilities.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Balzan FC win
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L31W21W12L10W33D20W11D12L21WH·ST.22/02A·PIE28/02A·FGU10/03H·SWI14/03A·SIR06/04H·BIR12/04H·MEL19/04H·MAR14/08A·MOS23/08H·GZI29/08← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.002.271.071.800.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.951.142.101.301.831.00
vs Weaker (8)2.250.622.600.601.670.67
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W11D10W22D11D12L02L02L21WH·FLO07/03H·GZI14/03H·HIB10/04H·BIR14/04A·MOS19/04A·ZAB26/04A·TAR30/04H·HIB16/08A·FLO21/08A·BIR30/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.201.001.081.181.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.001.081.250.500.881.38
vs Weaker (18)1.171.280.891.331.441.22
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-1
6.6%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.5%
1-3
5.2%
Balzan FC goals ↓
Sliema Wanderers goals →
01234
05.5%6.6%6.6%3.8%1.6%
15.1%12%9.2%5.2%2.3%
24.3%7.4%6.4%3.6%1.6%
32.0%3.4%3.0%1.7%0.7%
40.7%1.2%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Balzan FC goals (down), columns = Sliema Wanderers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Balzan FC is 0.21 points worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Balzan FC is 0.03 goals better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Balzan FC is 0.17 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Balzan FC or Draw
55.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
44%
covers Balzan FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC or Sliema Wanderers
74.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
44%
covers Balzan FC + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sliema Wanderers
69.9%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
44%
covers Draw + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Balzan FC, so a minus line means Balzan FC give that many goals of a start and Sliema Wanderers receive them. At -1, Balzan FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Balzan FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC -2
5.0%
Draw -2
9.0%
Sliema Wanderers +2
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC -1
13.9%
Draw -1
16.2%
Sliema Wanderers +1
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC +1
55.7%
Draw +1
20.2%
Sliema Wanderers -1
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Balzan FC)
Balzan FC +2
76.0%
Draw +2
13.7%
Sliema Wanderers -2
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W20W01L10W01L10W01L02L00DH·ST.22/02A·PIE28/02A·FGU10/03H·SWI14/03A·SIR06/04H·BIR12/04H·MEL19/04H·MAR14/08A·MOS23/08H·GZI29/08← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.400.800.400.600.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.550.500.600.500.500.50
vs Weaker (8)1.120.121.200.201.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W11D00D01L11D11D01L01L10WH·FLO07/03H·GZI14/03H·HIB10/04H·BIR14/04A·MOS19/04A·ZAB26/04A·TAR30/04H·HIB16/08A·FLO21/08A·BIR30/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.540.540.410.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.170.750.250.250.121.00
vs Weaker (18)0.670.610.670.670.670.56
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L21W01L11D00D32W10W10W10W21WH·ST.22/02A·PIE28/02A·FGU10/03H·SWI14/03A·SIR06/04H·BIR12/04H·MEL19/04H·MAR14/08A·MOS23/08H·GZI29/08← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.601.470.671.200.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.410.641.500.801.330.50
vs Weaker (8)1.120.501.400.400.670.67
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D10W21W00D01L01L01L11DH·FLO07/03H·GZI14/03H·HIB10/04H·BIR14/04A·MOS19/04A·ZAB26/04A·TAR30/04H·HIB16/08A·FLO21/08A·BIR30/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.460.540.760.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.830.331.000.250.750.38
vs Weaker (18)0.500.670.220.670.780.67
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Balzan FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Balzan FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balzan FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.6%-------
Under 6.596.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.7%-------
Under 5.590.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals90.4%-------
Away +2 handicap86.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals83.6%-------
Over 1.582.7%-------
Away over 0.5 goals82.1%-------
Under 4.579.7%-------
Home +2 handicap76.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals75.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.1%-------
Home or Away74.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Balzan FC's squad is €6m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€2m vs €7m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Balzan FC's attack is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Balzan FC's midfield is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€0m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Balzan FC's defence is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
BF wins
1
Draws
3
SW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Balzan FC vs Sliema Wanderers · H/A from BF
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HBF Vs Sliema Wanderers2-3
25/08/24ASliema Wanderers Vs BF2-0
14/04/24HBF Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
09/12/23ASliema Wanderers Vs BF1-0

Balzan FCBalzan FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HBF Vs Gzira United2-1
23/08/26AMosta Vs BF2-1
14/08/26HBF Vs Marsaxlokk1-1
19/04/26HBF Vs Melita2-0
12/04/26HBF Vs Birzebbuga3-3
06/04/26ASirens Vs BF0-1
14/03/26HBF Vs Swieqi United1-2
10/03/26AFgura United Vs BF1-2
28/02/26APietà Hotspurs Vs BF1-3
22/02/26HBF Vs St. Andrews1-4

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ABirzebbuga Vs SW1-2
21/08/26AFloriana Vs SW2-0
16/08/26HSW Vs Hibernians0-2
30/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs SW2-1
26/04/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs SW1-1
19/04/26AMosta Vs SW2-2
14/04/26HSW Vs Birkirkara1-0
10/04/26HSW Vs Hibernians1-1
14/03/26HSW Vs Gzira United2-1
07/03/26HSW Vs Floriana0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Balzan FC
Balzan FC
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.46
HomeLDWDW1.57
AwayWWWWL1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%43%37%
AVG goals2.863.132.63
Over 1.5 %80%87%74%
Over 2.5 %60%65%56%
Over 3.5 %32%39%26%
Scored1.581.871.33
Conceded1.281.261.30
BTTS56%61%52%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.46
HomeLWDWL1.20
AwayDDLLW1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%32%48%
AVG goals2.462.202.72
Over 1.5 %72%64%80%
Over 2.5 %42%36%48%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.220.921.52
Conceded1.241.281.20
BTTS56%44%68%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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