BKMA II is expected to win this match, which should be a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.1 goals. The most likely total number of goals is 2, but the single most likely score is 1-1, with a 11% probability. Banants II struggles at home, scoring an average of 0.8 goals while conceding 2.2, particularly against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, BKMA II excels away from home, scoring 2.25 goals while conceding just 0.92 against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a high probability of 82%. The home win percentage is 19%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 58%. The model also suggests the away win, with a 58% chance, and Over 1.5 goals, with an 82% probability.
Results analysis
The win for Banants II, extending their recent form, shocked the pre-match favourite, BKMA II, who were tipped to win with a 58 % probability. The final score of 3-2 gave Banants a home victory, proving the model’s pick wrong. The model had also selected several other outcomes. Home under 3.5 goals at 97.6 % hit, Away +2 handicap at 92.8 % hit, Away over 0.5 goals at 86.3 % hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 85.9 % hit, and Over 1.5 at 82.0 % hit. The other selections missed: Home under 2.5 goals at 90.7 %, Draw or Away at 81.2 %, and Away +1 handicap at 81.2 %. The match confirmed the model’s overall prediction was incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Banants II win✓ Hit
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA II win✗ Miss
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Banants II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.87
1.43
1.71
1.75
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.55
0.80
1.40
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (13)
2.31
2.38
1.83
2.33
2.71
2.43
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
0.97
3.31
0.94
2.07
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.50
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
3.05
0.77
3.75
0.67
2.20
0.90
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Banants II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.0%
Under 2.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
0-1
8.3%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
2-1
5.3%
Banants II goals ↓
BKMA II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
8.3%
9.3%
6.2%
3.1%
1
4.0%
11%
9.9%
6.6%
3.3%
2
2.7%
5.3%
5.3%
3.5%
1.8%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banants II goals (down), columns = BKMA II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Banants II is 1.17 points worse than BKMA II in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Banants II is 1.03 goals worse than BKMA II in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Banants II is 0.77 goals worse than BKMA II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Banants II or Draw✓ Hit
42.3%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Banants II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banants II or BKMA II✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Banants II + BKMA II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BKMA II✗ Miss
81.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Draw + BKMA II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Banants II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.3%
Under
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Banants II, so a minus line means Banants II give that many goals of a start and BKMA II receive them. At -1, Banants II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Banants II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Banants II)Actual: BKMA II
Banants II -2
2.1%
Draw -2
5.2%
BKMA II +2
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Banants II)Actual: Draw
Banants II -1
7.2%
Draw -1
11.6%
BKMA II +1
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Banants II)Actual: Banants II
Banants II +1
42.3%
Draw +1
22.5%
BKMA II -1
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Banants II)Actual: Banants II
Banants II +2
64.8%
Draw +2
17.9%
BKMA II -2
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Banants II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.57
0.79
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.55
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.23
0.83
1.17
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.38
0.31
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.18
0.27
1.58
0.25
0.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Banants II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banants II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Banants II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
0.86
0.93
1.00
1.06
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.15
1.00
1.17
1.43
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.63
1.94
0.62
1.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.86
0.50
2.17
0.42
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Banants II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banants II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Banants II and BKMA II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Banants II and BKMA II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Banants II and BKMA II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Banants II and BKMA II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II