The contest between Banga and Džiugas Telšiai is a true toss-up, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are evenly split: a 30% chance for Banga, 30% for a draw, and 40% for Džiugas Telšiai to lift the trophy. The average number of goals expected is 2.4, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 28% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. Banga, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Džiugas Telšiai, on the road, averages 2.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Under 4.5 (90.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.2%), and Away +2 handicap (87.7%). Both sides have recently struggled, Banga coming off a 0-3 loss and Džiugas Telšiai a 2-2 draw, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Banga win
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai win
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
0.85
1.15
1.47
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.43
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.06
1.38
1.25
1.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
0.93
1.36
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.79
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.00
0.88
0.88
2.12
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.4%
Under 2.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.5%
Banga goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.7%
3.3%
1.1%
1
8.8%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.5%
7.1%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.0%
2.6%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Banga is 0.23 points better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Banga is 0.11 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Banga is 0.07 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Banga or Draw
60.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
30%
40%
covers Banga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banga or Džiugas Telšiai
69.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
30%
40%
covers Banga + Džiugas Telšiai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
69.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
30%
40%
covers Draw + Džiugas Telšiai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Banga over/under 0.5
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Banga, so a minus line means Banga give that many goals of a start and Džiugas Telšiai receive them. At -1, Banga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Banga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Banga)
Banga -2
3.7%
Draw -2
8.6%
Džiugas Telšiai +2
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Banga)
Banga -1
12.3%
Draw -1
17.8%
Džiugas Telšiai +1
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Banga)
Banga +1
60.4%
Draw +1
21.2%
Džiugas Telšiai -1
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Banga)
Banga +2
81.6%
Draw +2
11.9%
Džiugas Telšiai -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.71
0.41
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
0.62
0.75
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.36
0.57
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.79
0.33
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.31
0.38
0.25
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.00
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Džiugas Telšiai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.62
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Banga's squad is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Banga's attack is €1m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Banga and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Banga and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai