The model favours an away win, with FK Zalgiris Vilnius beating Banga 1-1 as the single most likely scoreline, a 13.1% chance. The overall match is expected to see 2.6 goals, with a 26% probability of exactly two goals. Banga, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has struggled to find the net, averaging zero goals scored and conceding 1.17. In contrast, FK Zalgiris Vilnius on the road against a weaker side averages two goals scored and only 0.88 conceded. The home win probability sits at 23%, the draw at 27%, and the away win at 50%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.8%), Away +2 handicap (91.3%), and Under 4.5 (87.7%). Banga has recently drawn their last five matches, while FK Zalgiris Vilnius has suffered a defeat in their most recent outing.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Banga win
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
0.85
1.15
1.47
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.43
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.06
1.38
1.25
1.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.71
1.07
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.87
1.86
1.43
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.80
1.57
0.71
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.7%
0-2
10.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.0%
0-3
5.9%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Banga goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
11%
10%
5.9%
2.5%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.1%
5.4%
4.7%
2.7%
1.2%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Banga is 0.62 points worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Banga is 0.92 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Banga is 0.17 goals worse than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Banga or Draw
45.7%
Avg Implied -
20%
26%
54%
covers Banga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banga or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
74.0%
Avg Implied -
20%
26%
54%
covers Banga + FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
80.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
26%
54%
covers Draw + FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Banga over/under 0.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Banga, so a minus line means Banga give that many goals of a start and FK Zalgiris Vilnius receive them. At -1, Banga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Banga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Banga)
Banga -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.3%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +2
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Banga)
Banga -1
7.2%
Draw -1
12.5%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +1
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Banga)
Banga +1
45.7%
Draw +1
23.5%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -1
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Banga)
Banga +2
69.2%
Draw +2
17.1%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -2
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.71
0.41
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
0.62
0.75
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.86
0.57
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.00
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Banga's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€6m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Banga and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Banga's midfield is €1m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Banga and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai