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Banga vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 0-0
Banga
Banga
Vs
22%
27%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with a 51% chance for Suduva Marijampole and 22% for Banga, while a draw sits at 27%. The expected total is 2.6 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%. Banga, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. Suduva, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 74.6% and Under 3.5 at 73.4%. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with the away side’s recent five-game winning streak giving them a slight edge. The model’s selection for the most probable outcome is an away victory, while the overall shape of the game points to a balanced contest with a moderate goal tally.

Results analysis

The match delivered a shock as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, failed to materialise, ending in a 0-0 draw. The final score of 0-0 meant the model’s prediction was wrong. The model had given the away side a 51% chance of victory, while the home side had only a 22% chance and a draw probability of 27%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.6% probability, missed, whereas its choice of Under 3.5 goals, at 73.4%, hit. Both sides entered the game on contrasting runs: Banga came off a draw, whereas Suduva Marijampole were on a five-game winning streak.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Banga win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BangaBanga

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D10W04L11D12L05L10W11D11D12LA·ŠIA22/05H·HEG17/06H·FK 21/06A·KAU26/06H·PAN02/07A·HEG09/07A·DŽI17/07H·HEG24/07H·DŽI29/07A·FK 06/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.571.001.450.671.67
vs Stronger (9)0.891.781.251.000.602.40
vs Similar (14)0.791.430.861.710.711.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W22D22D05L40W21W01L01L22D41WH·PAN21/05A·DŽI18/06A·HEG21/06H·FK 26/06A·JON02/07H·ŠIA09/07H·VIB21/07A·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.041.501.081.361.00
vs Stronger (7)0.861.430.332.331.250.75
vs Similar (16)1.690.881.890.671.431.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1
10.7%
0-2
9.6%
1-2
9.5%
0-0 ✓
8.6%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.2%
Banga goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
08.6%11%9.6%5.2%2.1%
16.1%13%9.5%5.1%2.1%
23.6%5.9%4.7%2.6%1.0%
31.2%1.9%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Banga is 0.69 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Banga is 0.42 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Banga is 0.39 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BangaBanga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D10W11D02L00D00D00D00DA·ŠIA22/05H·HEG17/06H·FK 21/06A·KAU26/06H·PAN02/07A·HEG09/07A·DŽI17/07H·HEG24/07H·DŽI29/07A·FK 06/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.610.450.640.250.58
vs Stronger (9)0.330.780.250.750.400.80
vs Similar (14)0.360.500.570.570.140.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %52% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D00D02L00D10W00D01L21W20WH·PAN21/05A·DŽI18/06A·HEG21/06H·FK 26/06A·JON02/07H·ŠIA09/07H·VIB21/07A·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.350.750.330.640.36
vs Stronger (7)0.860.570.330.671.250.50
vs Similar (16)0.620.250.890.220.290.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BangaBanga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W04L01L01L03L10W11D11D12LA·ŠIA22/05H·HEG17/06H·FK 21/06A·KAU26/06H·PAN02/07A·HEG09/07A·DŽI17/07H·HEG24/07H·DŽI29/07A·FK 06/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.960.550.820.421.08
vs Stronger (9)0.561.001.000.250.201.60
vs Similar (14)0.430.930.291.140.570.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D22D03L40W11D01L00D01L21WH·PAN21/05A·DŽI18/06A·HEG21/06H·FK 26/06A·JON02/07H·ŠIA09/07H·VIB21/07A·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.740.700.750.750.730.64
vs Stronger (7)0.000.860.001.670.000.25
vs Similar (16)1.060.621.000.441.140.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
BAN wins
0
Draws
2
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from BAN
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/22HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-1
12/03/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN3-0

BangaBanga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs BAN2-1
29/07/22HBAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-1
24/07/22HBAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
17/07/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BAN0-1
09/07/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs BAN5-0
02/07/22HBAN Vs Panevėžys1-2
26/06/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs BAN1-1
21/06/22HBAN Vs FK Trakai0-4
17/06/22HBAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-0
22/05/22AŠiauliai Vs BAN1-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/22HSM Vs Panevėžys4-1
02/08/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM2-2
28/07/22AViborg Vs SM1-0
21/07/22HSM Vs Viborg0-1
09/07/22HSM Vs Šiauliai2-1
02/07/22AJonava Vs SM0-4
26/06/22HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-5
21/06/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-2
18/06/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM2-2
21/05/22HSM Vs Panevėžys2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Banga
Banga
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL0.87
HomeWLLDD1.00
AwayDDLWL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%18%17%
AVG goals2.392.452.33
Over 1.5 %74%73%75%
Over 2.5 %39%36%42%
Over 3.5 %22%27%17%
Scored0.831.000.67
Conceded1.571.451.67
BTTS48%55%42%
Clean Sheet17%18%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.52
HomeWLWLW1.75
AwayDDWLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%50%27%
AVG goals2.482.582.36
Over 1.5 %74%83%64%
Over 2.5 %48%42%55%
Over 3.5 %26%17%36%
Scored1.431.501.36
Conceded1.041.081.00
BTTS43%50%36%
Clean Sheet35%25%45%
Corners11.0011.0011.00
Cards4.004.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3684
72%
2.3
8527+58
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.40.8
-
2Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3663
50%
1.8
5537+18
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.0
-
3PanevėžysPanevėžys3662
50%
1.7
5031+19
2.2
67%
47%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.9
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3661
44%
1.7
6232+30
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.70.9
-
5FK TrakaiFK Trakai3659
47%
1.6
5341+12
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3655
42%
1.5
4840+8
2.4
81%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.1
-
8BangaBanga3630
17%
0.8
3354-21
2.4
75%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.5
-
9Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3627
14%
0.8
3467-33
2.8
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.9
-
10JonavaJonava363
0%
0.1
12103-91
3.2
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.9
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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