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Banga vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 21/09/2025
Time: 15:25
Final 0-1
Banga
Banga
Vs
29%
31%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity tops the headlines as Banga’s home form shows a modest 1.11 goals conceded per match, while the hosts have scored only 0.89 on the same footing. In contrast, Suduva Marijampole, on a five-game winning streak, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away, suggesting a sharper attack against a similarly ranked opponent. The model favours an away win, with a 39% probability, followed by a draw at 31% and a home win at 29%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, an 81.2% selection that the model hit in this match. The final result was a 0-1 away victory, confirming the model’s prediction.

Results analysis

The match saw the away side extend a five-game winning streak, while the home team came off a draw. The Pythia model’s favourite was an away win with a 39% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 0-1 in favour of the visitors. The model also predicted an under 3.5 total with an 81.2% chance, and that selection hit. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.6%, but the actual result was a 0-1 loss for the home side. Overall, the model’s call and its key selection both came through, confirming the accuracy of its predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Banga win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BangaBanga

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L02L10W20W01L12L01L50W00D02LA·ROS24/07H·ROS31/07H·ŠIA04/08H·FK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·SUD17/08A·PAN20/08A·DAI24/08H·KAU30/08H·FK 13/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.200.671.131.001.27
vs Stronger (11)0.361.450.331.170.401.80
vs Similar (18)1.061.110.891.111.221.11
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D23L22D01L20W21W12L21W11D02LH·FK 20/07H·DŽI27/07A·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08H·BAN17/08A·ŠIA25/08H·HEG30/08H·PAN12/09H·PAN16/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.901.400.801.531.00
vs Stronger (6)0.671.001.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (23)1.610.871.460.771.801.00
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.0%
0-1 ✓
11.7%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
Banga goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
012%12%7.9%3.2%1.0%
19.6%15%8.1%3.3%1.0%
25.6%6.8%4.1%1.7%0.5%
31.9%2.3%1.4%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Dainava
0.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Banga is 0.47 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Banga is 0.28 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Banga and Suduva Marijampole are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BangaBanga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W10W01L10W00D20W00D01LA·ROS24/07H·ROS31/07H·ŠIA04/08H·FK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·SUD17/08A·PAN20/08A·DAI24/08H·KAU30/08H·FK 13/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.330.330.400.530.27
vs Stronger (11)0.090.360.170.330.000.40
vs Similar (18)0.560.330.440.440.670.22
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D01L00D01L01L11D01L00DH·FK 20/07H·DŽI27/07A·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08H·BAN17/08A·ŠIA25/08H·HEG30/08H·PAN12/09H·PAN16/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.330.800.400.600.27
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.500.500.000.50
vs Similar (23)0.780.300.850.380.700.20
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BangaBanga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L00D10W00D02L01L30W00D01LA·ROS24/07H·ROS31/07H·ŠIA04/08H·FK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·SUD17/08A·PAN20/08A·DAI24/08H·KAU30/08H·FK 13/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.870.330.730.471.00
vs Stronger (11)0.271.090.170.830.401.40
vs Similar (18)0.500.780.440.670.560.89
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W22D00D20W20W11D10W10W02LH·FK 20/07H·DŽI27/07A·DAI03/08A·FK 07/08A·KAU10/08H·BAN17/08A·ŠIA25/08H·HEG30/08H·PAN12/09H·PAN16/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.600.400.930.73
vs Stronger (6)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.830.570.620.381.100.80
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
BAN wins
1
Draws
5
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from BAN
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN2-1
11/05/25HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-1
09/03/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN1-0
27/10/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN2-0
02/08/24HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
01/06/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN1-0
10/04/24HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0
03/11/23HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0

BangaBanga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HBAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2
30/08/25HBAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-0
24/08/25ADainava Vs BAN0-5
20/08/25APanevėžys Vs BAN1-0
17/08/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN2-1
13/08/25HBAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
10/08/25HBAN Vs FK Trakai2-0
04/08/25HBAN Vs Šiauliai1-0
31/07/25HBAN Vs Rosenborg0-2
24/07/25ARosenborg Vs BAN5-0

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/25HSM Vs Panevėžys0-2
12/09/25HSM Vs Panevėžys1-1
30/08/25HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
25/08/25AŠiauliai Vs SM2-1
17/08/25HSM Vs Banga2-1
10/08/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM0-2
07/08/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM1-0
03/08/25ADainava Vs SM2-2
27/07/25HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-3
20/07/25HSM Vs FK Trakai0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Banga
Banga
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.16
HomeWWLDL1.08
AwayDLLLW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%28%36%
AVG goals2.262.202.32
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %34%28%40%
Over 3.5 %16%16%16%
Scored1.020.961.08
Conceded1.241.241.24
BTTS36%40%32%
Clean Sheet32%28%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.54
HomeLWWDL1.64
AwayWDLWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.341.922.76
Over 1.5 %66%56%76%
Over 2.5 %46%32%60%
Over 3.5 %24%20%28%
Scored1.341.161.52
Conceded1.000.761.24
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet38%48%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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