Defensive solidity tops the headlines as Banga’s home form shows a modest 1.11 goals conceded per match, while the hosts have scored only 0.89 on the same footing. In contrast, Suduva Marijampole, on a five-game winning streak, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away, suggesting a sharper attack against a similarly ranked opponent. The model favours an away win, with a 39% probability, followed by a draw at 31% and a home win at 29%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. The suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, an 81.2% selection that the model hit in this match. The final result was a 0-1 away victory, confirming the model’s prediction.
Results analysis
The match saw the away side extend a five-game winning streak, while the home team came off a draw. The Pythia model’s favourite was an away win with a 39% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 0-1 in favour of the visitors. The model also predicted an under 3.5 total with an 81.2% chance, and that selection hit. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.6%, but the actual result was a 0-1 loss for the home side. Overall, the model’s call and its key selection both came through, confirming the accuracy of its predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Banga win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.20
0.67
1.13
1.00
1.27
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.45
0.33
1.17
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.11
0.89
1.11
1.22
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.90
1.40
0.80
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.61
0.87
1.46
0.77
1.80
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.0%
0-1 ✓
11.7%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
Banga goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
1
9.6%
15%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
5.6%
6.8%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
3
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Dainava
0.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Banga is 0.47 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Banga is 0.28 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Banga and Suduva Marijampole are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.40
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.36
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.33
0.44
0.44
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.30
0.85
0.38
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.09
0.17
0.83
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.78
0.44
0.67
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.57
0.62
0.38
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →